Brexit: The fallout

9,425 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

Johnson wants to hold a General Election and he wants to hold it on the 1st November. By holding it on the day after the UK leaves the EU, he is effectively negating the Lib Dems and the Brexit party. The Lib Dems will then have to campaign for Article 49 (no more second referendum) and the Brexit party will be finished (UK has already left).

 

Whether Parliament allows this is a different matter but I would guess the most likely scenario now would be a General election on the 1st November.

 

The letter to the EU is just a smokescreen to give him more time to run down the clock and to show to Parliament he is trying.

The UK will face exactly the same issues on November 1st as it does now except its negotiating position as a 3rd country will be much weaker.

 

The UK cannot escape geography. It is not because of the EU that the UK exports more to Ireland than to China. It's geography. The UK will continue to trade largely with its neighbours as virtually every other country in the world does.

 

The UK will therefore need an FTA with the EU more than any other FTA. Even an FTA with the US will not be a replacement for one with your immediate neighbours.

 

The UK will, upon asking for an FTA with the EU, be asked how it intends to handle EU citizens' rights, the "divorce bill" and the Irish border. Except now it will have 0 FTAs with anyone and will be "trading" on WTO rules alone with the entire world. It will be under immense pressure to get the EU FTA agreed and it will agree to whatever the EU wants. It loses any shred of bargaining power it has on Novermber 1st.

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, murphaph said:

The UK will face exactly the same issues on November 1st as it does now except its negotiating position as a 3rd country will be much weaker.

 

 

I am pretty sure all Boris Johnson is thinking about is winning a majority in Parliament.

 

By negating the Lib Dems and the Brexit party he might just have a chance.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He might indeed. He is standing across from the worst Leader of Her Majesty's Opposition for many many years. 

 

Today, Donald Tusk gave his response to Johnson's bluster in a fairly short but barbed tweet in which he said:

 

Quote

The backstop is an insurance to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland unless and until an alternative is found. Those against the backstop and not proposing realistic alternatives in fact support reestablishing a border. Even if they do not admit it.

 

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1163757521582116864

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

I really don`t get.

... I could be missing something.

 

 

Oh so true...

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

Go ahead, tell me what I am missing?

From Ireland's perspective it's a negotiated hard border (because there is no unicorn technology to keep an open border between two jurisdictions with different regulatory and customs regimes on each side) or one that comes about through no deal crash out. The negotiated one could endure a long time and would be "Ireland specific". The crash out one would see chaos at the Irish border on the 1st of November but crucially also at every British port and the effects will impact the entire UK. There will be massive pressure on any UK government to agree to whatever it needs to agree to to stop the chaos.

 

 

5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RenegadeFurther said:

Go ahead, tell me what I am missing?

An unusual source, but I think this lunchtime's comment from Michelle O'Neill (sinn fein) covers the point pretty accurately:

 

Brexit is incompatible with the Good Friday agreement and the Tories have shown a total and callous disregard to that agreement and to the democratically expressed wishes of the people of the north.

The fact is that the British government has agreed to the backstop and Boris Johnson has voted for it himself.

The EU have made it clear that the backstop is integral to the withdrawal agreement and it is necessary to avoid any hardening of the border. It is high time the Tories realised that too.

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The posturing from Boris, trying to blame the EU, is straight out of Trump's play book. He's just repeating a simple (i.e. easily sold to the public) if wrong idea in the hope of trying to deflect blame for the event things go pear-shaped at the end of October.

After all, it was the UK that asked to leave the EU, and as such it is the UK which has created the problem of the border. Theresa May negotiated a deal which included a backstop. Blaming the EU for not providing the UK with a better solution for a problem the UK has created is absurd.

 

6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As Jackie Kennedy said 50 years ago and still rings true today, "Britain's reduced place in the world was not a surprise, but an inevitability." 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dstanners said:

 

The EU have made it clear that the backstop is integral to the withdrawal agreement and it is necessary to avoid any hardening of the border. It is high time the Tories realised that too.

 

If there is a backstop there will be no withdrawal agreement.

 

If there is no withdrawal agreement there will be a hard border.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I already told you why the EU/Ireland would prefer hard border up front rather than negotiated hard border anyway later.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, murphaph said:

I already told you why the EU/Ireland would prefer hard border up front rather than negotiated hard border anyway later.

 

You mean this.

 

Quote

It will be under immense pressure to get the EU FTA agreed and it will agree to whatever the EU wants. It loses any shred of bargaining power it has on Novermber 1st.

 

Don`t buy it.

 

General Election November 1st (it will be too early to judge the chaos at the borders), and if BoJo wins the election on November the 1st he then has 5 years in power.

 

What pressure will he be under? 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The kind of pressure a PM is under when he's just torn up all their country's FTAs and left their biggest market. The kind of pressure a PM is under when they've walked out of their nuclear regulatory body which means even medicinal radioactive isotopes cannot be sold to said country by any reputable country in the world. The kind of pressure a PM is under when fresh fruit and veg starts vanishing from supermarket shelves. That kind of pressure. I assume election a week after crash out. If he tries to time the election for B-day he will have great difficulty because he needs Labour to vote for it due to the FTPA (requires 2/3 of HoC to vote for an election this early).

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now