Brexit: The fallout

10,151 posts in this topic

10 minutes ago, LeCheese said:

 

No deal is the default unless they make up there minds on something

 

I was talking about the "options" the MPs have.

 

10 minutes ago, LeCheese said:

 

 

Norway + needs all the EFTA countries to agree not to veto -- that will not happen frankly  here   &  here.

EFTA is run by consesus, No way they are going to let the UK  play their confrontational politics inside EFTA

& even if they did manage to persuade the scandinvian countries, it would leave the UK paying to play,  free movement etc etc etc .. 

 

As far as I understand, one of those Norway+++CommorMarket2.0+++ proposal was about modeling a new Common Market based on Norway's deal.  Not joining EFTA.

 

And, at least the liberals said that Freedom Of Movement was a reasonable price to pay.   As you can see, Customs Union proposal lost by only 3 votes.

 

10 minutes ago, LeCheese said:

 

CETA  took 9 years to negotiate.

 

Then the transitional time on the deal can be extended as long as it takes.  At least the EU wouldn't mind because it is basically UK pays everything as per normal but have no saying.

 

10 minutes ago, LeCheese said:

A customs union does not solve the Irish border problem either.

 

That I am not sure.  

 

10 minutes ago, LeCheese said:

 

They either need to accept Mays deal ( good luck  with that) or just drop out in 11 days time. ( or hold another referendum of course )

 

Yes.  Then we are back to my original comment, they already said No Deal was not an option for them, so they have only 2 more doors, May's Deal or Revoke.

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4 minutes ago, Krieg said:

 

As far as I understand, one of those Norway+++CommorMarket2.0+++ proposal was about modeling a new Common Market based on Norway's deal.  Not joining EFTA.

 

 

That is what I understood to. 

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2 minutes ago, Krieg said:

As far as I understand, one of those Norway+++CommorMarket2.0+++ proposal was about modeling a new Common Market based on Norway's deal.  Not joining EFTA.

 

Nope, it was based on Joining EFTA

 

What is the common market 2.0/Norway-plus Brexit option?

It is based on Norway’s relationship with the EU, which is outside the bloc and the customs union but inside the single market. Under the plan the UK would have to join Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland in the European Free Trade Association (Efta), which would then allow it to participate in the European Economic Area (EEA).

The ‘plus’ in this option refers to a temporary customs union with the EU, which would need to be negotiated to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. This arrangement would remain in place until the EU and UK agreed a specific trade deal.

 

5 minutes ago, Krieg said:

That I am not sure.  

 

A customs union involves checks

 

But it doesn’t mean by itself that border checks are removed

A common external tariff doesn’t avoid the issue of a ‘hard border’ because tariffs are only one of the issues that affects free movement of goods. Regulatory checks for compliance and VAT are also carried out. The abolition of checks at the border did not come about until advent of the single market 

 

9 minutes ago, Krieg said:

Yes.  Then we are back to my original comment, they already said No Deal was not an option for them,

 

They can say it till the cows come home of course, it does not matter - they are out unless they come up with something that the EU will agree to.

 

So May's deal, revoke or new referendum, the EU would look favourably on all three

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7 minutes ago, Krieg said:

Yes.  Then we are back to my original comment, they already said No Deal was not an option for them, so they have only 2 more doors, May's Deal or Revoke.

 

Right, which is what it has always been. Unless you believe May or parliament has, or had the eggs to go hard Brexit which I certainly dont.

 

So what is parliament actually voting for? They are indirectly voting to extend and they know it.  The only logical outcome is delay delay until either another referendum or a general election and one party can hopefully push through their chosen option.  There isn't going to be a real agreement in the commons as is, unless a hard Brexit is really the only option then they will fold.

 

The real question is how long the EU will continue to play along in the charade.  Since the UK agreed to fork over another billion a month it would make sense for the EU to continue allowing "one last chance" forever too.

 

So, who will blink first?

 

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7 minutes ago, zwiebelfisch said:

So, who will blink first?

 

UK ( or they will drop out by default )

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13 minutes ago, LeCheese said:

 

Nope, it was based on Joining EFTA

 

What is the common market 2.0/Norway-plus Brexit option?

It is based on Norway’s relationship with the EU, which is outside the bloc and the customs union but inside the single market. Under the plan the UK would have to join Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland in the European Free Trade Association (Efta), which would then allow it to participate in the European Economic Area (EEA).

The ‘plus’ in this option refers to a temporary customs union with the EU, which would need to be negotiated to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. This arrangement would remain in place until the EU and UK agreed a specific trade deal.

 

 

 

That would be the Customs Market 2.0 proposal from yesterday.   But there was as well the Customs Union proposal.   It is very ironic, the Custom Union proposal lost by a few votes votes, but it said that UK would not be able to negotiate their own trade deals, which sounds like something they really did not want.  But it was the only one that was close to pass.

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3 hours ago, zwiebelfisch said:

So, who will blink first?

 

Doesn't look like it will be the EU .. Michel Barnier today :

 

[After no-deal] there won’t be many months passing before the UK will start asking for negotiations on a free trade agreement or other issues, like transport.

The topics of Brexit will still be there - Ireland, the financial resolution, the legal obligations of the UK, the issues of citizens and citizens’ rights. These are questions we will put again and again.

If there is no deal and the UK wants to discuss trade or other subjects, we will put the same subjects back on the table.

 

 

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The customs union proposal alone would not allow an open border in Ireland (as some posters have correctly pointed out). There were customs controls until 1993 with the advent of the single market. When the military checks went as part of the peace process it left no checks at all, but only because the single market had come into being beforehand. The single market was clearly an enabling factor in the peace process as an "invisible border" is psychologically very important for nationalists. They accepted NI's place within the UK and in return they got to "feel" part of the Irish state.

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Once again we see evidence that some MPS haven't got a clue about Brexit.  A No Deal Brexit is the default position, so no need to vote on it.

BTW, you didn't close your brackets.  Just imagine being so awful that you make Chris Grayling look intelligent.

 

 

MPs were denied the right to vote for a full WTO Brexit on the ballot paper tonight. It was a choice between soft Brexit, no Brexit or holding another referendum to get a different answer. So much for democratic innovation of “indicative votes” pic.twitter.com/C6gUdUlsms

 

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She's behaving like a bloody dictator, if it's a choice between no deal or revoke A50 the people should be given the vote, not her damned choice :angry:

 

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30 minutes ago, murphaph said:

 

I really do appreciate your input to TT on the view from the people of Ireland :) but I would be even more appreciative if you could find a way of posting links to the specific thread page and post you're referring to on boards.ie which didn't require me investing 10 (30 mins the first time!!) minutes of my navigational investigative time only to be disappointed to find I'd located nothing but a Twitter link at the end of the rainbow. :angry:

 

Maybe something like this might work without having to begin navigating from the start page of Boards.ie

[U.K.] Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting) - Page 403 - boards.ie

 

I take it the large one here from the FTs Sebastian Payne was the cause of your 'Scary if remotely true' comment.

 

5ca35ebf09dff_FireShotScreenCap254-Sebas

 

The woman appears to be rapidly approaching certifiable status which begs the question 'Who you gonna call?'

 

Emergency - which service do you require?

Mental health nursing service!

Sorry, they're all going home now - can we send anybody else?

Police!

Sorry, they're either commuting from 100km away or protecting Brexit nationalists.

 

2B

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I posted a link to Seb Payne's twitter-should link directly there, apologies if it does not, but it works for me as they say. It has a referer link as I found it on Boards.ie but I wasn't trying to link to that forum. I wouldn't expect anyone to try to keep up with the Boardsies (between us we've posted over 86k times on Brexit so far)

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1 hour ago, Wulfrun said:

She's behaving like a bloody dictator, if it's a choice between no deal or revoke A50 the people should be given the vote, not her damned choice :angry:

 

 

Actually, it would make more sense to make Mays deal the default. It saves the conservative party and delivers Brexit and possibly prevents a General election.

 

 

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I think now there's only one way to resolve this never ending question ...

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DbL7z0VVAAAy4lC.jpg

 

The idea was probably conceived in a pub over a boozy lunch, so why not finish it in the car park.

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2 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

Actually, it would make more sense to make Mays deal the default. It saves the conservative party and delivers Brexit and possibly prevents a General election.

 

 

She is a remainer.

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They commentators on Sky are discussing BoJo as PM. Apparently he already have 70 votes of support behind him.

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