Brexit: The fallout

7,190 posts in this topic

14 minutes ago, Krieg said:

i honestly thought they will reject the extension as well, I believed that May, even if she kept saying otherwise, wanted a delay, but I thought it wouldn't fly.   Now I am really surprised.  She is talking about a short extension, 1 to 3 months, which I don't think it will solve anything.  A much longer extension seems more logical.

 

The short extension is if her deal gets approved next week. The longer extension is if her deal get's rejected again.

 

ETA: what yesterday said.

 

_106022263_brexit_flowchart_article_50_v

 

zwiebelfisch is right and has been saying it for ages. In hindsight, it seems that May has been playing a "clever" long game and has been strategically manoeuvring the process to a point where her deal almost has to be accepted. It may still backfire. She may have just stumbled into the situation by accident. But either way, it's intriguing to watch.

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I feel really sorry for the folks in the UK...   They have been lied to and manipulated by people who earn shit loads of money and will continue to do so no matter what the outcome...

 

If I was to lie to country and get found out... I would get linched or thrown in jail... or mobbed and beaten up on the street... 

 

These fuckers are getting away with it... and fucking up peoples livelihoods at the same time!

 

 

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2 hours ago, theGman said:

it seems that May has been playing a "clever" long game and has been strategically manoeuvring the process to a point where her deal almost has to be accepted

 

This occurred to me last night when I was watching all of the voting coverage on CNN. I even said as much to Himself.

 

I have the feeling that, since Tusk said an extension would be good, people think it will get EU approval. It's as though they've forgotten that all 27 EU members must agree to it and a couple have already said that they wouldn't.

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There's a strategic reason Brexit is being delayed by the Germans. Their economy is around 4 trillion dollars GDP. Their flagship bank Deutsche where they gamble their accountholders money on derivatives in London where it's forbidden in Germany, is worth 30 trillion itself. 

 

 

This lady is a genius on the deficit in the US - which is at 21 trillion dollars:

 

 

 

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45 minutes ago, RenegadeFurther said:

link?

 

 

 

Earlier, France and Italy had said no to an extension. It appears there is a little softening going on since then. Here is the latest from yesterday on where some countries stand.

 

Some say only with very tough conditions and not for long.

 

Only time will tell.

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4 hours ago, theGman said:

it seems that May has been playing a "clever" long game

you give her way too much credit!

 

I will go as far as to say that she was tasked with getting a brexit deal sorted and she has done that despite the resignations of several brexit ministers.

How good her deal is, is in the eye of the beholder!

BUT....she is an evil b*tch based on her immigration stance, borne out by the Windrush scandal.

 

2 hours ago, SpiderPig said:

These fuckers are getting away with it... and fucking up peoples livelihoods at the same time!

She should go to jail, or better still be beheaded so that she can continue to look down on the people...this time from the tower!

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7 hours ago, jeremytwo said:

Their flagship bank Deutsche where they gamble their accountholders money on derivatives in London where it's forbidden in Germany, is worth 30 trillion itself. 

 

Hahahaha!!! :lol:

 

Deutsche Bank may be the largest bank in Germany but even as the 15th largest bank in the world their total assets of 1.4€ trillion or ~ US 1.638$ trillion are worth ~ 5.5% of 30 trillion!!

 

7 hours ago, jeremytwo said:

There's a strategic reason Brexit is being delayed by the Germans.

 

You'd believe anything detrimental to 'ze Germans' provided it it did not require the application of logical common sense to do so. :rolleyes:

 

To return to reality...

 

I remain unconvinced that the much touted, (by many brexit supporting journos aka ERG shadows and quite a few TTers), theory that May has been following the secret long game plan of a closet Remainer has much of a sound basis for the following reasons.

 

No matter what she may have said in the past, when her ministerial job was in the gift of the PM Cameron whose policy was to support the Remain vote, only she knows for certain how she actually did vote in the referendum ballot box, and I don't believe she has ever been honest about her personal goals since she began her political career.

 

She played a suspiciously extreme low profile role during the entire referendum campaign.

 

Absolutely nothing she has said or done since the referendum has indicated any intent or will not to force the UK to leave the EU cost it what it may.

 

To have worked out such a complex plan for the long game would require its planner to possess an inordinately high level of intellectual and practical skills in trade, international treaty law, social and global economics, diplomacy, interpersonal communications, public relations and the application of human resources.

 

ETA: With the one glaring exception of her rapid response post-Salisbury result

May has shown consistently that she has herself not been able to tap into a single one of those skills nor does she have the resources to find sufficient substitutes to fill her deficiencies.

 

It's patently obvious that she never had the wit or skill to either come up with a plan for a successful Brexit within a week of the referendum or to then adapt it to the changing circumstances for over 33 months since then.

 

AFAIR May studied PPE with a slice of Law on the side which she has a limited grasp of.

 

That could be seen by many of the recklessly inept instructions she issued to junior ministers or secretaries of state (which she later used as scape goats) at the Home Office and the subsequential failure of the resulting statutory instruments to be upheld by either the Law Lords the UK supreme court or, in the cases where the former asked for them, ECJ or ECHR judgements.

 

Throughout her term in office as PM she has cotinued to demonstrate a continuing inability to understand many of the key legal principles involved in any of the specialized fields of law with which she has had to deal with daily whilst remaining determined not to accept or act on  the legally qualified advice of those few competent civil servants or ministers who are at her disposal.

 

She is more stubborn than a mule and of much less use in moving things along.

 

As for the actual Leave voters...

 

Albeit some loud sections of them may have been driven to do so out of a genuine belief in an undefinable idea of whatever regaining control might mean, faux patriotism, nationalism, xenophobia or simple bigotry, IMHO the vast majority of Leave voters probably chose where to put their X according to how much of a kick in the nuts it might deliver to whoever represented to them the architects of their precarious personal socioeconomic status, or their percieved risk of slipping into such a status.

 

And I don't blame them for that.

 

After 6 years of suffering under Con-LibDem and Con enforced austerity triggered and magnified by external global macroeconomic causes but deviously sold by the Con(woe)men as either the fault of Labour or being forced on HMG by 'Brussels'  I imagine the majority of Leave voters thought their X was going to do most damage to a line of nut kicking targets headed up by Cameron-Osborne-Blair-Brown-facelessEUbeaurocrat-Merkel-Sarkozy et al.

 

However if, in 2017, the UK voters had truly been more motivated by a desire to get Brexit done and dusted without delay (rather than just giving the stubbornly slow learning gits in Westminster a second resoundingly painful kick in their collective nuts) then given their choice of two parties which were both internally disunited and led by people who'd risen above and beyond the limit of their capabilities they really should have voted for the party which was least likely to be at the mercy of the demands of its multiple revolting backbench extremists and gone for the one which had stuck its consistently (since 1975) true EU-skeptic and primary extremist out front.

 

Of course Corbyn might well have made a pigs ear of Brexit too but I suspect he might at least have done the negotiating in the correct order (i.e. negotiate first with the party then the entire HoC and HoL and then with the EU) and got the whole thing over by now with a helluva lot less long-term damage to either the other member states of the EU or the UK on so many different levels which will now certainly affect its people and their future prospects for generations to come.

 

The international reputation of the UK for reliability and trustworthiness has been scarred deeply by this fiasco and the faith of about half of its citizens in the principles of democracy and the rule of law has now been tested well beyond its safe working limit.

 

If there's any slight hope for many of its now disgusted and disillusioned citizens I suspect that won't lie in the future of the UK but in the independent futures of its constituent nations.

 

For the mean time I'm just expecting

2B hanging around here shortly after Breaks-it day. :(:ph34r:

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4 minutes ago, 2B_orNot2B said:

As for the actual Leave voters...

 

Albeit some loud sections of them may have been driven to do so out of a a genuine belief in an undefinable idea of whatever regaining control might mean, faux patriotism, nationalism, xenophobia or simple bigotry, IMHO the vast majority of Leave voters probably chose where to put their X according to how much of a kick in the nuts it might deliver to whoever represented to them the architects of their precarious personal socioeconomic status, or their percieved risk of slipping into such a status.

 

And I don't blame them for that.

 

After 6 years of suffering under Con-LibDem and Con enforced austerity triggered and magnified by external global macroeconomic causes but deviously sold by the Con(woe)men as either the fault of Labour or being forced on HMG by 'Brussels'  I imagine the majority of Leave voters thought their X was going to do most damage to a line of nut kicking targets headed up by Cameron-Osborne-Blair-Brown-facelessEUbeaurocrat-Merkel-Sarkozy et al.

 

 

I think this is spot on. People who feel that they have nothing, will be drawn to voting for a situation where there is potential upheaval because the slight possibility of something is better than nothing.

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16 minutes ago, 2B_orNot2B said:

 

Hahahaha!!! :lol:

 

Deutsche Bank may be the largest bank in Germany but even as the 15th largest bank in the world their total assets of 1.4€ trillion or ~ US 1.638$ trillion are worth ~ 5.5% of 30 trillion!!

 

 

I don't agree with jeremytwo's analysis, but Deutsche Bank's derivative book had a gross value of $48 Trillion and net value around $20 Trillion in 2017 according to the Reuters article.  

 

Deutsche’s gross derivatives exposure last year was over $48 trillion, although net exposure was $20 billion, and investment banking and trading revenue was $14.2 billion. All this was supported by a market cap of only $23 billion. 

That’s a lot of derivatives exposure for market participants to potentially absorb. As it is spread across multiple players, it makes these links highly opaque, increases uncertainty, and raises suspicion among market participants over who is most exposed. 

 

“If other banks and fund managers are not currently aware of their Deutsche Bank exposure I would be extremely surprised,” said Helen Thomas, an independent financial analyst and former banker. “Their risk is not counterparty exposure but market exposure, where Deutsche’s decline sets in chain an unwind of positions across the board.”

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-markets-deutsche/commentary-deutsches-dwindling-market-cap-belies-still-huge-global-footprint-idUKKCN1J21YP

 

It is a huge source of risk not only for Germany, but for the whole financial system.  

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1 hour ago, hooperski said:

Theresa May is to offer the DUP a meaningful bribe.

 

ERG have pretty much said previously that they will go with whatever the DUP decide.

 

Does the meaningful bribe contain a guarantee to resign before the future relationship discussions begin? Since I seem to recall David Davis and Boris Johnson banging on about SuperCanada / Canada +++, which is a completely different direction from how Theresa May idea of a future relationship so if she were to agree to go quickly, that would open up the possibility of the type of FTA deal that the Eurosceptics have wanted for quite some time.

 

Of course, where Canada+++ falls down is Northern Ireland - I think it was @murphaph who explained that the Canada option only works with an open Irish border when the UK-EU frontier is in the Irish sea, which is the bit that the Brexiteers omit to talk about (although David Trimble is often mentioned these days by the Brexiteers as claiming that the backstop is nothing to do with the GFA, and holding him up as the expert in it).

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9 hours ago, jeremytwo said:

There's a strategic reason Brexit is being delayed by the Germans

 

 

I thought it was delayed because Parliament is as divided as the British public are with how best to deal with Brexit, be it no deal / WTO, Norway, Canada-style FTA, second referendum or just revoking article 50 completely?

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4 hours ago, 2B_orNot2B said:

I remain unconvinced that the much touted, (by many brexit supporting journos aka ERG shadows and quite a few TTers), theory that May has been following the secret long game plan of a closet Remainer has much of a sound basis for the following reasons.

 

I don't think she has had some brilliant master plan from the get go. I just think that over the last couple of months, she is trying to get her plan passed by bringing it down to the wire. Even if there is a short extension, it will still be her plan on the table and it may get accepted then. There is no other plan.

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14 hours ago, dom said:

He doesn't take into consideration that a lot of the people who didn't vote in the referendum would probably get off their apathetic arses to swing it in favour of remaining in the EU

 

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