Brexit: The fallout

7,267 posts in this topic

51 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

With respect to the auto industry, I see a buildup in inventories and a very likely possibility that the industry as a whole has 2-5 years of soft sales and consolidation.    Not advice, but only my opinion.   

  

 

I think that I mentioned this before... 

 

Bently Have a normal consignment of Parts from Germany of 5-6 wagons a day , but in recent months its been ramped up to 9 or so... But the problem is that they dont have the Storage space for all the Parts... They dont build on "Just in Time" parts availabillity..  They have stock... but its very well managed... but enough room to store parts to keep the vehicles in production until this crap is sorted is something they dont have. 

 

Much of the problem is a split in the workforce.. clearly the Leavers are slinging shit at the remainers and the remainers are slinging it back....   

 

The Voted... and some stuborn Government is sticking to it...

 

Maybe a General vote would be in order... Asking the public if they would like a second referendum, Konowing what they know now...   Lets face it... there will be so many more youngsters who could vote now who werent old enough 2 yrs ago!

 

These are the ones that will be affected in years to come... not the old fuckers who want the "Old Great Britain back"..

 

 

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2 hours ago, balticus said:

 

My post is not directed at you, but at what seems like a general sentiment on the thread.   Pardon me interrupting. 

 

I see articles like this:  

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-bankjobs/bankfurt-paris-await-brexit-boom-as-banks-stay-loyal-to-london-idUKKCN1PP1ZB

 

In Frankfurt and Paris, the flood of banking jobs predicted to arrive after Brexit is, for now, little more than a trickle.

 

It is hard to view the stories of predictions of starvation because trucks cannot pass customs or evacuation plans for the Queen in the event of a no deal Brexit as anything less than scaremongering.   

 

It might not be as bad as predicted.    That is my current, very flexible opinion.   

 

With respect to the auto industry, I see a buildup in inventories and a very likely possibility that the industry as a whole has 2-5 years of soft sales and consolidation.    Not advice, but only my opinion.   

 

One unspoken assumption that seems to be underscoring some of the sentiment here is that prospects in Germany have been better than in the UK, are better, and will be better for the foreseeable future.    25 years out, I think the UK will be better off than Germany (with a 60% probability).     The situation is different for everyone, but some trends cannot be avoided.    People who are switching citizenships should probably look 25 years into the future.  

 

I will get a post out within the next couple of weeks, and not on this thread, but I think that Germany is basically shooting itself in the foot right now in a number of different ways (illegal migration not being a major one).   Anti-Trump and Brexit headlines are distracting the populace from asking difficult questions.  

 

Sorry that was not brief.  

On 31.1.2019, 13:10:28, yesterday said:

 

 

 

Do you think that predicting that Germany will be worse off is not scaremongering?What would you call your post with regards to the doom and gloom future of Germany?

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4 hours ago, balticus said:

 

One unspoken assumption that seems to be underscoring some of the sentiment here is that prospects in Germany have been better than in the UK, are better, and will be better for the foreseeable future.    25 years out, I think the UK will be better off than Germany (with a 60% probability).     The situation is different for everyone, but some trends cannot be avoided.    People who are switching citizenships should probably look 25 years into the future.  

Well that's a bold prediction! My crystal ball came in at 53.21924% in favour of Germany, but it's admittedly hard to predict so far in advance. 

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2 hours ago, Namu said:

 

Do you think that predicting that Germany will be worse off is not scaremongering?What would you call your post with regards to the doom and gloom future of Germany?

 

I said that I would say with 60% probability, not zero percent and not 100%, that the UK will be better off than Germany 25 years out. 

 

You and I might have different ideas about what "scaremongering" and "doom and gloom" are.   

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1 hour ago, Auswanderer said:

Well that's a bold prediction! My crystal ball came in at 53.21924% in favour of Germany, but it's admittedly hard to predict so far in advance. 

 

Hahaha!   Point taken. 

 

What I meant is, there seems to be a contingent on here that is convinced that the future for Germany is much better than for the UK.    It might not be the case.   60% is a conservative estimate.   

 

If the Euro tanks and the EU fractures even more, for example, the Visegrad countries becoming less obedient toward Brussels or Italy flaunting budget deficit rules, and last but not least, the US losing patience with Germany and to a lesser degree France, staying out of the Eurozone and leaving the EU might appear in retrospect prophetic. 

 

This will be like the Y2K problem.    After the deadline passes, everyone will wonder what the big deal was.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, murphaph said:

 

That brings back some memories.   

 

Thomas Kaplan

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Kaplan

 

A looooong time ago, i traded in and out of Apex Silver Mines.    The main owners were the Soros Brothers, George and Paul.   

 

Google to your own satisfaction, but i could bore you to death about the San Cristobal project.    

 

Thanks for that.  

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2 hours ago, murphaph said:

Talking of which the illustrious MP has just been called out for spouting absolute garbage. He's either stupid, lazy or thick to say such things without checking first. Or was he primed as he needs to start delivering for his extra 6k a month.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-shropshire-47115960

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