Brexit: The fallout

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I think there was something mentioned by UK government recently.  It was about housing, and access to welfare and health, although seemingly - and importantly - not  on the time barrier that non-residents have to wait a while before becoming eligible to access services again..   

 

It was noticable  as the first UK government acknowledgement that some people may return.   Definitely not the emotive "deportation" but a more prosaic lack of desire or ability to sustain local life as a third party national and / or without our EU benefits, for whatever reason.  (Even as a dual national now, I am not convinced my future is here now, albeit won`t be moving right away).

 

How much trust one might choose to place in any such suggestions, particularly looking at recent events, would be an individual conclusion.

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I'd say any returning emigres to the UK will be on their own, just like the Windrush generation.

 

Nissan were blatantly lied to by May & Co. Of course they will manufacture the next model outside a UK that has removed itself from the world's largest single market.

 

Hardly a surprise.

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Yes, we would have to go in the appropriate documented manner to becoming UK resident again.    Particularly if facing certain risks, such as requiring ongoing access to healthcare, we should probably check it all out in detail in order to plan it in an orderly way.   I am putting some basics back in place.  For example, not had a UK bank account for almost 15 years but now getting one, so that it is there in case I need it at short notice, and considering buying some more UK state pension years.    Better to do that now than when faced with some short-term stress.  Fix the roof while the sun is (still relatively) shining :).   

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3 minutes ago, swimmer said:

Yes, we would have to go in the appropriate documented manner to becoming UK resident again.    Particularly if facing certain risks, such as requiring ongoing access to healthcare, we should probably check it all out in order to plan it in an orderly way.   I am putting some basics back in place.  For example, not had a UK bank account for almost 15 years but now getting one, so that it is there in case I need it at short notice.    Better to do that now than when faced with some short-term stress.  Fix the roof while the sun is (still relatively) shining :).   

Wise decision. 

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I have said here before that it is a difficult balance between pragmatism and doom-mongering.    Brexit is only one point in time.    What we transition to will itself change - economic climate,  attitude to foreigners (already less favourable than when many of us came here) and our rights as foreigners,  worth of the GBP (or indeed EUR), access to decently-paid secure employment and housing (both arguably on a downhill trend here too).    And then our own lives change.

 

Just reading about how our numbers in Spain have fallen by 35% in recent years thanks to a variety of such factors like affordability (GBP decline mainly it seems) and changed registration processes for foreigners, plus life events like widow/erhood.   So that already happens even with our EU cushion. 

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6 minutes ago, swimmer said:

, access to decently-paid secure employment and housing (both arguably on a downhill trend here too). 

 

 

Please show me where in Europe housing has become cheaper in the past 10years!!

 

I see only an upward trend... and I look on a very regular basis!

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36 minutes ago, murphaph said:

I'd say any returning emigres to the UK will be on their own, just like the Windrush generation.

 

Nissan were blatantly lied to by May & Co. Of course they will manufacture the next model outside a UK that has removed itself from the world's largest single market.

 

Hardly a surprise.

Dieselgate was predominantly the reason for Nissan to pull the investment. Sales of Diesel Cars fallen. 

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Bollocks... They were all to be built with Euro6 motors or Petrol... 

 

Nissan Imports a huge amount from europe...  and thats why they are pulling out!

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16 minutes ago, SpiderPig said:

Bollocks... They were all to be built with Euro6 motors or Petrol... 

 

Nissan Imports a huge amount from europe...  and thats why they are pulling out!

 

Reported here in the FT . "While Britain’s impending exit from the EU has caused uncertainty for the Sunderland plant, which exports roughly half its cars, the decline of diesel across the continent was a more significant factor, according to people familiar with the company’s thinking."

" Nissan reverses decision to build X-Trail at Sunderland" FT,  February 2, 2019

 

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You cant link to your FT account...

 

 

Here.. take a read of this... 

 

60 odd % is exported to europe.. but 85% of the parts are Imported....

 

So. Nissan, Like Bently.. Mini and Probably Rolls Royce, along with any others will be screwed!

 

Well done Britain!

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17 minutes ago, Kev Windsor said:

Reported here in the FT. "While Britain’s impending exit from the EU has caused uncertainty for the Sunderland plant, which exports roughly half its cars, the decline of diesel across the continent was a more significant factor, according to people familiar with the company’s thinking."

 

That sounds like a good example of exactly the economic factor I was talking about. Make a decision about changed membership of a trade block.  Then changed economic reality arrives and trumps it.   Ideals do not always keep us warm at night, unfortunately.

 

The right wing UK media is raging about "broken promises", however, as I said.     They seem to have taken it personally.  They have not grasped that it was merely the decline of diesel that made this the inevitable free market response of a large multinational.    In that respect, the Leavers of Sunderland were actually right not to rely on the global business giving them jobs, possibly - not sustainable enough.  

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There's probably a bit of both, drop of diesel sales certainly will have an effect but it won't take long to restructure manufacturing to take account change in buying trends. They work on JIT so will not have large numbers of prebuilt diesel engines in store. Nissan like Toyota set up in the UK to circumvent the restrictions on Japanese car imports in the 70's. Now with Brexit, they are not guarenteed access anymore and so will plan for the worse case scenario. Manufacturing in an Eastern EU member, France or Germany will make sense because of the reduction in hassle as well as possible trade duties. Eastern Europe will most certainly offer attractive incentives to any motor manufacturer wanting to locate.

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27 minutes ago, SpiderPig said:

But it still doesnt make sense what you write... 

 

Of course it doesn`t - it`s Brexit :lol:.    To say it again, the UK state has made plans to evacuate the monarch in the event of civil disorder in London about Brexit.  JRM responds by saying this is some sort of over-reaction as she did not leave London when it was bombed during World War II.

 

I know it sounds totally ludicrous and that these "media sources" ought to be The Onion or Daily Mash, that is why I posted it, but that is indeed UK February 3 2019.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/03/queen-to-be-evacuated-if-brexit-turns-ugly-reports

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1 minute ago, swimmer said:

 

Of course it doesn`t - it`s Brexit :lol:.    To say it again, the UK state has made plans to evacuate the monarch in the event of civil disorder in London about Brexit.  JRM responds by saying this is some sort of over-reaction as she did not leave London when it was bombed during World War II.

 

I know it sounds totally ludicrous, that is why I posted it, but that is indeed UK February 3 2019.

Queen wouldn't Leave London. Oh come on.

43 minutes ago, SpiderPig said:

You cant link to your FT account...

43 minutes ago, SpiderPig said:

You cant link to your FT account...

43 minutes ago, SpiderPig said:

You cant link to your FT account...

53 minutes ago, SpiderPig said:

Bollocks... They were all to be built with Euro6 motors or Petrol... 

 

Nissan Imports a huge amount from europe...  and thats why they are pulling out!

 

Reported here in the FT. 

https://www.ft.com/content/02ba73f4-270a-11e9-88a4-c32129756dd8

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7 minutes ago, Kev Windsor said:

 

 

You can not link us to YOUR FT account... The FT online is also a Pay/subscription service... so every link you post.. us NON subscribers are asked to pay...

 

I used to love the FT pages that was free in most Broadsheets... They Kept my fish and chips warmer for longer!

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1 hour ago, Kev Windsor said:

(quoting from " Nissan reverses decision to build X-Trail at Sunderland" FT,  February 2, 2019)

 

"the decline of diesel across the continent was a more significant factor, according to people familiar with the company’s thinking."

 

Apparently these "people familiar with the company's thinking" are unaware that Feb 1st 2019 was the date on which the FTA between the EU and Japan came into effect which, by removing all prior customs barriers between Japan and the EU, not only created the largest customs union in history but also eliminated the need for companies such as Nissan and Honda to maintain (soon to be disadvantaged in EU access terms) backdoor production bases in the UK.

 

2B

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Other reports suggest that those same sources suggest that Nissan also said:  “The continued uncertainty around the UK’s future relationship with the EU is not helping companies like ours to plan for the future.”

 

This is another point of course.  Such decisions are often not an absolute decisive to a "yes / no" decision, rather they contribute in part.    Like it is great to get a residency permit or whatever here, but one will still have to sustain a life.   The former alone is not a magic bullet.

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4 minutes ago, swimmer said:

Other reports suggest that those same sources suggest that Nissan also said:  “The continued uncertainty around the UK’s future relationship with the EU is not helping companies like ours to plan for the future.”

 

This is another point of course.  Such decisions are often not an absolute decisive to a "yes / no" decision, rather they contribute in part.    Like it is great to get a residency permit or whatever here, but one will still have to sustain a life.   The former alone is not a magic bullet.

 

 

Uncertainty prevades all business life. Germany Car industry faces much uncertainty over its future. Hopefully , it can timely change. It's not a yes / no Brexit matter. 

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11 minutes ago, 2B_orNot2B said:

 

Apparently these "people familiar with the company's thinking" are unaware that Feb 1st 2019 was the date on which the FTA between the EU and Japan came into effect which, by removing all prior customs barriers between Japan and the EU, not only created the largest customs union in history but also eliminated the need for companies such as Nissan and Honda to maintain ( soon to be off-shore) backdoor production bases in the UK.

 

2B

 

 

That's interesting.

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