Brexit: The fallout

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13 hours ago, Jonny said:

 

Given that it took Iceland 2 years just to work out fishing rights, I'm guessing this statement is very true.

It took most newest members about 10 years to join (except euro and Schengen which doesn't apply to the UK), so the reverse process will be more or less that long.

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9 hours ago, yourkeau said:

It took most newest members about 10 years to join (except euro and Schengen which doesn't apply to the UK), so the reverse process will be more or less that long.

Not sure about that! Many EU laws were in their final draft when the UK joined. France vetoed UK membership twice before they gave in! This time the UK is on its own in renegotiating everything

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I still say that all the comments and forecasts are just done to either have something to say or make a particular group feel better and sell newspapers (although the news part is really only a name now, rather than a function in some cases).

Goes for both camps but I found the fact that leave are saying Brexit has not caused any issue when Brexit hasn't happened yet.

 

 It is like saying Bonfire night was quiet and nothing got torched and then opening the door and giving some kids some sweets for Halloween...

All we can do from over here is make sure we are ok and prepared (as far as we can be) for when the UK steps out (when, if etc who knows what could happen in the next years). 

What will be interesting is how immigration is deal with afterwards. Personally I will be laughing my socks off if there is a labour shortage and they start really pushing people back in to work I know a few long tern unemployed people back home that voted out as they couldn't get a job due to the immigrant, however their idea of a job is not working on a farm for minimum wage. 

If it really goes pear shaped, farms have to employ locals on higher wages, food prices may rise which is a shame for those that voted remain but get hit by it. 

However, as I said a lot to friends back home etc, this is a Tory government, they are not that interested in anything but minimum welfare and they do not care about the NHS. 
If they need people to work to prop up their support, they will push people in to work..

 

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Reports are surfacing that the UK has been dragging its feet administratively with processing uk residence visas. Several of our EU counterparts in the UK have been allegedly "in error" informed their applications are rejected and they should make plans to leave. On the UK side, it is estimated it could take decades of admin workload to process those applying. (127 years if everyone there applied, though that js obviously very unrealistic.)

 

And the alleged "in error" rejections are a smokescreen for the UK to not have all that workload on their desks right now.

 

The numbers of "applicants" are up on the germany side for Brit expats, but in much smaller numbers applying for various documents, so quite unlikely to inundate or surpass e.g. Turkish application rates.

 

Do we reckon there could he some kind of admin backlog on the Germany side? So far Brits seem to be having no issue, but we probably haven't reached critical mass yet.

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The whole application process has changed my view of German/UK bureaucracy.

Germany is supposed to be the land of red tape and hard to get things done but in the whole process of applying for residency and citizenship the hardest part was getting a copy of my birth certificate with an apositla on it - due to, as the woman I spoke to said, heavy workload backing up due to all the expats asking for the stuff they need.

 

When I read what is happening to EU nationals over in the UK it makes me wonder which system is better organised. Granted, there will be more people in the UK applying as there will be here but still. Then again, Germans are quite upfront with what is needed to live here, even I did not know that an EU citizen living in the UK has to take out private health insurance if they are not working. Would not be possible to fall in to that here, to go to the doctors you need a insurance card, to get that etc..etc...etc.. All the way down to registering that you live in the city you do.

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

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4 hours ago, paulwork said:

Reports are surfacing that the UK has been dragging its feet administratively with processing uk residence visas.

 

Could it not simply be overload due to the current demands similar to processing refugees?

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13 hours ago, fraufruit said:

 

Could it not simply be overload due to the current demands similar to processing refugees?

I don't think the UK has let that many in..

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13 hours ago, fraufruit said:

overload due to the current demands similar to processing refugees?

 

Yes, I think that is likely - things like applying for an EHIC 6 years ago took months longer than it should because of overload, or understaffing - in a sense I think systems are set up to fail in that they operate at absolute capacity, so that if someone falls ill or a few more applications come in, the cumulative effect is quickly awkward.

 

cb6dba - 'similar to' - not necessarily literally because of refugees in large numbers, but because of extra high workload with EU citizens going in to sort themselves out much as we Brits are doing here.

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42 minutes ago, kiplette said:

 

Yes, I think that is likely - things like applying for an EHIC 6 years ago took months longer than it should because of overload, or understaffing - in a sense I think systems are set up to fail in that they operate at absolute capacity, so that if someone falls ill or a few more applications come in, the cumulative effect is quickly awkward.

 

cb6dba - 'similar to' - not necessarily literally because of refugees in large numbers, but because of extra high workload with EU citizens going in to sort themselves out much as we Brits are doing here.

I think they suffer from standard civil service type stuff..

They are generally understaffed and then they start getting applications from a lot of EU citizens resident in the UK.

 

By contrast, only us Brits are applying where we live in Europe, so the extra case load is not as high. If it was Germ,any stepping out, I think the system here would also grind to a halt.

From my time in the civil service I can also guess they are not really that motivated. Advancement there is usually dead mans shoes or new shoes (new department crated). They are not the most motivated group of people (as a group, there are individuals who are, and ones that are not).

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Germany may be infamous for her bureaucracy, but after being here 16 years, my experience is that the "bureaucracy" translates into preciseness. Usually, you can expect that your situation falls into a category for which the authorities are prepared, resulting in a fair and correct outcome. In the UK, processes seem to be more approximate, and often dependent on your luck i.e. who is dealing with your application.

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Sounds like the US. The outcome of bureaucracy doesn't depend on the laws, it depends on who you talk to. *sigh*.

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Hard brexit and Scottish independence. I expect the snp to start the ball rolling on indy2 fairly soon after Mays speech on Tuesday. 

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1. The EU is partly to blame for making itself vulnerable.  It needs to quickly find a way to pump money into southern European economies, and forget about using a sort of economic blackmail to produce "reforms" that quickly uproot existing practices and social contracts/understandings.  Those reforms have not come, rather, anti-Euro movements have expanded.

 

3. Trump is being advised by people who hate the ideology that created the EU, even the "good parts".  Farage has his ear.  And Farage does not want European unity to succeed.

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5 hours to go before time is up for Northern Ireland and Stormont.

 

If Theresa is damn well determined to pull the UK out of just about everything in order to implement her vision of a Brexit AT ALL COSTS, then by her logic it has to follow she pulls the UK completely out of Northern Ireland in case politics, elections etc. gets in her way. 

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