Germanwings Flight 9525 crashes in French Alps

520 posts in this topic

Not going to happen. Self-driving subway/buses will happen. Self driving trains/planes - not earlier than 2050.

 

Actually, if you are afraid of human factor just imagine what a depressed air traffic controller can do...

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Not going to happen. Self-driving subway/buses will happen. Self driving trains/planes - not earlier than 2050.

 

Self driving subways and "light railways" are already here, have been for ages in London. Proper trains and planes are technologically either possible or very close to possible now. 2050 might be realistic due to the exceptionally long periods needed to get things approved but to be honest that is (hopefully) within most of our lifetimes.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Not going to happen. Self-driving subway/buses will happen. Self driving trains/planes - not earlier than 2050.Actually, if you are afraid of human factor just imagine what a depressed air traffic controller can do...

 

It's actually a lot easier to have self-driving planes and trains than self-driving buses and cars. This is because rail traffic and air traffic are much less chaotic than road traffic, which is by its nature unpredictable.

 

As for air traffic controllers, all they do is monitor air traffic and issue instructions to planes so that they don't get too close to one another. Even with today's technology it should be easy to automate 99.9% of the work. A human air traffic controller can be on call to take over in case an unusual situation arises.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

A human air traffic controller can be on call to take over in case an unusual situation arises.

 

You ever flown a plane of any description?

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

You ever flown a plane of any description?

 

Flying a plane is the job of the pilot, not of the air traffic controller. AFAIK air traffic controllers do not need to know hot to fly planes of any description.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In a world there more and more people are unable to find the way home after the daily supermarket tour without the help of a navigation system it's no wonder that an increasing number of people are convinced that machines and technics can do any job better than they themselves.

 

However, there are still a few which rather take in account the possible complete fail and error of a human than the predictable fail and incompetence of a machine, program or any other technical device .

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Not going to happen. Self-driving subway/buses will happen. Self driving trains/planes - not earlier than 2050.Actually, if you are afraid of human factor just imagine what a depressed air traffic controller can do...

 

Self driving subway are currently used at least in France and I believe in London as well.

Planes can fly themselves as well, currently it is simply not legal to have them take off and land without human control.

The same legal problem prevents autonomous Buses or cars but both exist and have been driving around for quite a few years.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

However, there are still a few which rather take in account the possible complete fail and error of a human than the predictable fail and incompetence of a machine, program or any other technical device .

 

If you take existing cars, planes and trains, they already rely on highly sophisticated hardware and software. A software bug or hardware fault at a critical system can have fatal consequences. Yet in almost all cases accidents are caused by human error, not by glitches in the software or hardware.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Machines can't think. And they don't have what is called experience. Experience not only with the actual subject. Experience as the ability to evaluate a situation in more than on given parameters .

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Things like the Google and Mercedes F015 autonomous cars are in the pipeline.

 

http://www.businesscarmanager.co.uk/act-now-nightmare-driverless-cars-says-aa/

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jR7Y6GWCMn4

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Machines can't think. And they don't have what is called experience. Experience not only with the actual subject. Experience as the ability to evaluate a situation in more than on given parameters .

 

That's exactly where an autopilot may have a HUGE advantage over a human pilot. In critical situations that lead to accidents in the past, pilots were often overwhelmed by the information overload and the lack of time to think and react properly. A dozen seconds may be too short for a human to digest all the information pouring in from all the sensors and decide what to do. The same dozen seconds would be an eternity for a computer capable of processing billions of calculations per second.

 

As for experience, human pilots don't have much real experience with critical situations as they are hardly ever confronted with them in real life. They may encounter simulation-based critical scenarios during their training, but when faced with the real thing, they often panic and make all sorts of mistakes. An autopilot doesn't panic.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Driving a car isn't only brakes, steering wheel and clutch. Flying a plane is more than keeping it up in the sky, start and land.

 

The clear advantage of a human is the fact that they all have seen and experienced more than just taking off, flying and landing.

 

But- time will tell. And it will take some time before people trust a machine pilot more than a human one.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Driving a car isn't only brakes, steering wheel and clutch. Flying a plane is more than keeping it up in the sky, start and land.The clear advantage of a human is the fact that they all have seen and experienced more than just taking off, flying and landing. But- time will tell. And it will take some time before people trust a machine pilot more than a human one.

 

Indeed, time will tell. Actually, it's all a matter of time: newer generations of human pilots or human drivers aren't better than the previous ones. Autopilots, on the other hand, steadily improve.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Self driving subways and "light railways" are already here, have been for ages in London. Proper trains and planes are technologically either possible or very close to possible now. 2050 might be realistic due to the exceptionally long periods needed to get things approved but to be honest that is (hopefully) within most of our lifetimes.

 

 

 

Self driving subway are currently used at least in France and I believe in London as well.

Planes can fly themselves as well, currently it is simply not legal to have them take off and land without human control.

The same legal problem prevents autonomous Buses or cars but both exist and have been driving around for quite a few years.

 

It's interesting how you don't know there is self-driving subway in Germany. I think Nuremberg should advertise itself not only as a city of Nuremberg trials. Of course I also used self-driving subway in other countries.

 

But I was talking about self-driving long distance trains (in particular fast ones). This is not going to happen (before 2050) even though technically ICE trains are almost automatic. However, self driving city transportation (trams&buses) and taxis can appear as early as 2025.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Had a mail (just before midnight) from my friend at the BFU in Braunschweig. He had originally mailed me in connection with something club-internal & in my reply I'd said we'd been thinking of him & whether he's been in Southern France.

 

His response was yes - last week in Southern France, yesterday in Paris & today back to Southern France today.

 

I wished him luck in the search.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Things like the Google and Mercedes F015 autonomous cars are in the pipeline.

 

http://www.businesscarmanager.co.uk/act-now-nightmare-driverless-cars-says-aa/

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jR7Y6GWCMn4

 

They are not telling you the whole story, Google wants you to believe we are close to achieve safe self-driving cars but the technology is not there yet. Computes still can't really see, and without achieving that they are putting on the streets cars driven by computers that can't really make a difference between a cramped paper or a small branch than can be ran over and something that you definitely can't drive over it.

 

If you want to learn more about "computer vision" and how we are still on diapers you can check this brand new TED about it:

 

 

 

P.S., After watching that you will realize it is actually scary they are already putting their cars on the roads.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And yet the Google self-driven cars have gone over 700,000 miles without a single accident (except for two where one was rear-ended at a stop light, and another where the human was in control at the time).

 

They can already drive better than you (whether you admit it or not), can make much faster decisions, are safer, and would greatly improve traffic flow. They have not yet figured out poor weather conditions (snow, heavy rain, etc.), but the results are improving. Safe driverless cars are already here, the main obstacles are liability and insurance, as well as overcoming our innate skepticism (demonstrated in this thread) that they can really be safe. A computer is not going to be talking on its cell phone, putting on makeup, eating, turning around to control their crazy kids, checking out a hot girl or guy on the street, etc.

 

One real problem that I see is the danger of someone hacking the system and creating total chaos.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are barking at the wrong tree, I am a pro technology guy and I wish things actually developed faster in this area.

 

But you are wrong about the Google car being already a better driver than a person. It might be true it drove already 1 million km without any major accident but that does not say much (when comparing it to a person), you have to check the conditions the car was driving and what the computer decided on emergency situations if there were any.

 

The point is computers can't see and without that you can't rely 100% on them for activities where you need vision and a correct interpretation of the surrounding. The Google car makes a HUGE number of assumptions and when you increase the size of your test case you will then notice that those assumptions are not always correct.

 

But it is OK, this is the Internet, everyone can Google a bit and become an expert and know more than people who are actually working with that technology.

 

P.S., The main obstacle self-driving technology has right now is lack of real computer vision. But feel free to believe what the marketing people are telling you.

 

Edit:

 

A more realistic list of self-driving cars problems:

 

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/530276/hidden-obstacles-for-googles-self-driving-cars/

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now