Bavaria and the real estate bubble

260 posts in this topic

11 minutes ago, Eric7 said:

 

The house price doesn't really interest him, he's in it for the rental income.

Even if the house prices crash, rents aren't going to suddenly fall through the floor.

The only risk is when it comes to the time where the fixed interest finishes. If interest rates have exploded then there could be trouble.

 

If house prices cut in half, rent prices will not be far behind.  Again, unlikely, but this is exactly what happened in plenty of places around the world during the 2008 crash.

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2 hours ago, Hutcho said:

 

Please prove otherwise then.

 

Currently there is only a single house in Freimann for rent - it costs 3100 euros cold, and was built in 1988, so it's certainly not new and the U-Bahn is still 2km away!

First, my house is not in Freimann.

 

Second, these things go out in 24h! In my case, I got an immediate email notification and I replied with all paperwork within 30 minutes. I saw the house the very next day. By then, the guy had already taken out the advertisement because he already had enough interested people.

As I was the first and he liked us, we got it.

 

So today you see nothing, but maybe tomorrow one or two properties show up, but very briefly.

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10 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

Whose rent went down in 2008? Ours sure didn't nor did we lower the rent on our rental property.

 

no kidding.  

 

this thread is totally off the rails.  It's would be funny if it weren't so...not funny.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

Whose rent went down in 2008? Ours sure didn't nor did we lower the rent on our rental property.

 

House prices here also didn't go down in 2008.  I specifically said this happened in other parts of the world.

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21 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

First, my house is not in Freimann.

 

Second, these things go out in 24h! In my case, I got an immediate email notification and I replied with all paperwork within 30 minutes. I saw the house the very next day. By then, the guy had already taken out the advertisement because he already had enough interested people.

As I was the first and he liked us, we got it.

 

So today you see nothing, but maybe tomorrow one or two properties show up, but very briefly.


Your profile says Freimann, so I picked that, but feel free to show us a few new built houses with garden, close to the U-Bahn in Munich worth between 1.5 and 2 million euros that is renting for 2500 euros a month.

I've provided you concrete examples of how this is not the case.

Until you provide some proof instead of simply excuses, I'll stick by my opinion that it is you that doesn't understand the Munich real estate market, not the rest of us.

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50 minutes ago, Hutcho said:


Your profile says Freimann, so I picked that, but feel free to show us a few new built houses with garden, close to the U-Bahn in Munich worth between 1.5 and 2 million euros that is renting for 2500 euros a month.

I've provided you concrete examples of how this is not the case.

Until you provide some proof instead of simply excuses, I'll stick by my opinion that it is you that doesn't understand the Munich real estate market, not the rest of us.

As I just said, it really goes out quickly. I just ran your search now and a 2300€, 130sqm, 1991 , 300sqm ground house just showed up!

https://www.immobilienscout24.de/expose/99570775?referrer=RESULT_LIST_LISTING#/

1km from 2 UBahn stations.

 

It´s a matter of waiting for it to show up.

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This place is 30 years old and is in a public transport black hole, it certainly isn't worth 1.5 million to 2 million euros.  Unfortunately nothing selling right in that area now, but here's one not far away selling for a million with similar specs. 

 

So I suspect this place is only worth half to two thirds of the amount you were mentioning, which is reflected in the rent.

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Freimann is a weird island. I know the area well as family live there. The only advantages are the Isar (the biggest rat highway on earth) and the English Garden. However the quality of life there is blighted by that huge Wertstoffhof stink nearby. But there are islands of extremely rich houses there.

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I'm not sure what Wertstoffhof you're talking about.

Freimann is very well connected if you're near the U-Bahn, but all the places closer to the Englischer Garten are quite a way away from it.

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Yeah, that house is worth a million or so, of which around €700,000 is for the ground. It’s a small DHH too close to the highway. Personally, I wouldn’t want to buy it / live there with two children.

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2 hours ago, Hutcho said:

I'm not sure what Wertstoffhof you're talking about.

Freimann is very well connected if you're near the U-Bahn, but all the places closer to the Englischer Garten are quite a way away from it.

 

There's a huge one near there with four cooling towers visible from the Autobahn when you drive from Vaterstetten near the Allianz Arena and the windmill.

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That isn't a Wertstoffhof, it's a sewage treatment plant.  It doesn't really affect anyone in Freimann, it's more just this small Siedlung behind the Autobahn wall, which is probably one of the only places in Munich you could get a big house with a garden for 2500 euros a month.

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34 minutes ago, Hutcho said:

That isn't a Wertstoffhof, it's a sewage treatment plant.  It doesn't really affect anyone in Freimann, it's more just this small Siedlung behind the Autobahn wall, which is probably one of the only places in Munich you could get a big house with a garden for 2500 euros a month.

 

Alright, I was a tad prejudiced. I apologize if I offended. 

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17 hours ago, Hutcho said:

This place is 30 years old and is in a public transport black hole, it certainly isn't worth 1.5 million to 2 million euros.  Unfortunately nothing selling right in that area now, but here's one not far away selling for a million with similar specs.

Actually, that house you posted is from 1968, more than 20 years older than the other. That would put the other at at least 1.3M€.

And remember my rent was negotiated 2 years ago, now it would probably be some 150€ more.

 

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2 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Actually, that house you posted is from 1968, more than 20 years older than the other. That would put the other at at least 1.3M€.

And remember my rent was negotiated 2 years ago, now it would probably be some 150€ more.

 

 

No, it wouldn’t. I’m sorry to contradict you, but I know the real state market in Munich very well. The older house has 75 sqm more ground, which apples for apples  is worth’s approx €200,000 more alone. It’s also bigger and being sold without a Markler, which means that the owner is most likely pushing the price up a bit. Yes, it’s older, but the rest more than compensate the added age. The house you found is not worth 1.3 million.

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Hey guys, it is now nearly 5 years since I started this thread.

 

We still haven't bought a house, but we have come close a couple of times. We nearly got one for 525k in 2017. Then, we almost got a EFH in 2018 for 660k, but that was also too much. Now we are looking at prices around 750k.

 

The house prices have gone way over our heads, and continue to pass us by. I don't know why we still have hope that something affordable and decent will come on the market. If this trend continues, in just a few years we will be about 1 Mil for a DHH or REH.

 

On the other hand, if the Leitzins is eventually raised, and house prices stagnate, it will still be just as expensive or more, due to the interest. 

 

I would say we should have bought something in 2015 for 450k, but the banks wouldn't give us a loan back then. They wanted 28% down.

 

What do you all think? Will the prices ever come down to where a normal family might be able to buy one, like 400k?

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6 hours ago, dmbartender said:

If this trend continues, in just a few years we will be about 1 Mil for a DHH or REH.

 

On the other hand, if the Leitzins is eventually raised, and house prices stagnate, it will still be just as expensive or more, due to the interest. 

 

What do you all think? Will the prices ever come down to where a normal family might be able to buy one, like 400k?

 

Well as someone above mentioned, the secret of buying well here is to find a public transport black hole which will be filled in the future. Forget anywhere near an S Bahn. round my area ordinary houses have indeed reached the million. The trend with interest rates is a disaster, for buyers and savers. The NIRP will stay for the next  few years I believe, until things change in the US (the EZB marches in lockstep with the Fed). The present trend is a plateau. Prices won't I don't think crash (thank God).

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