German house price indices

[trybefore 6]

Thanks for the detailed replies. Much to think about now, and I think I will take a look at building. Never had something made for me before, not even shoes so I want it to be a fun experience, although from some stories I've heard it could be the reverse.

[Johnny English 3,071]

 

I think timing the german resi market is a lot more complicated that in some other countries

Not convinced - it barely moves!!

[matajari 239]

The most important message of this thread: => you can't make blanket statements about the housing market in Germany.

And doing your calculations: Don't forget: Before houses and flats become too expensive, the answer in Germany will always be built more of them till the prices come down to an acceptable level again. The effects of having property near the commercial center or in better and spare places will be reduced by for example building a tramline to a new housing area, which will then be more attractive than yours because it is cleaner and further outside with basically the same convenience. That happened to us in Stuttgart. Our house was in a pretty unrivalled position. Very attractive and very well connected. Im sure the price would be much higher today, had they not build a new tramline and opened a even more attractive area for families for quick and cheap commuting into Stuttgart. The house price is still 10 percent up, but the windfall profits that could have been expected will never materialise. In our area in Stuttgart there is still loads of attractive land currently used by farmers within a 15 minutes commute to the center...

[darbid 1]

[adminmerge][/adminmerge]

Hi guys,

 

Most of the old threads have broken links in it so I am starting a new one to bring them up to date.

 

So my question is, I am looking at buying a house in Munich and want to see some information about what other houses have gone for. ImmobilienScout has some great information about offers put into their system but I am not sure how reliable this is.

 

I see a number of links for HVB but they are broken so does the HVB still offer this service?

 

Any others would also be great.

 

Moderator note: Whether the links in older posts are broken are not, please don't start a new thread for a topic that already exists, but instead add to the existing one. Thanks.

[darbid 1]

Dear God - opps Moderator,

 

I cannot disagree with your idea of keeping your nice little database of entries clean. Lets see if practically anyone opens up a 2 year old thread, goes to the last entry, understands/realizes that there is a question there as opposed to a comment and answers it.

[El Jeffo 42,135]

I reckon that nearly all regular Toytowners surf the site using the =1"]View new posts button (when they're not using the search box), which means any new post in a thread will bring that thread to the top of the new posts queue (provided the user in question has subscribed to the corresponding forum in their new posts filter).

 

The subforums themselves work on the same principle: when a thread is updated, it moves to the top spot in the respective list.

 

That's why we moderators are asked to merge related threads, to ensure that all the information on a subject is kept in the same place (within reason). This sometimes runs the risk of us being branded as merge Nazis. It's a thankless job at times, but someone has to do it.

[HellesAngel 1,889]

 

I see a number of links for HVB but they are broken so does the HVB still offer this service?

 

If you spent as long reading the thread, old and outdated as you think it is, as you do bitching and griping about the mods you'd find answers to your questions.

 

 

 

 

 

there used to be a good website called HVB Expertise, but they stopped their service at the end of 2008.

 

For regional real estate markets you can check more info here:

http://www.planethom...e/expertise.jsp

 

for a number of cities you can get excellent bi-lingual info on market trends here:

http://www.dave-net.de/de/markets.php

 

the German magazine FOCUS published every year a guide on 77 cities in Germany with details about prices, development, chances for the future and all that. Check more here:

http://www.focus.de/..._aid_54614.html

 

I made it bold to help you focus, and left the other links in too - hopefully the extra words don't confuse you too much - as I'm pretty sure that Planethome are still up as we got our flat through them, and not heard anything about Focus shutting down.

 

Bitch less, read more.

[YorkshireLad6 7,152]

Just so you know: I've just opened this 2 year old thread, went to the last entry, understood/realised that there is a question there as opposed to a comment but don't have an answer for it because Immobilienscout24 has always been right on the button for me.

[darbid 1]

One can only hope that someone posts a link.

 

Had already found, read and bought the planethome report and will reserve my opinion on it's quality. But they cannot be the only ones.

[lmosdal 527]

I ran across this 'Focus' article link recently that compares buying and renting in different cities. For specific neighborhoods I use immoscout too. The immoscout info is quite general and doesn't take the features of the property into consideration -- just the area. It's still a good place to start though the actual price per meter of a tacky mid-century flat, cheap Neubau or a swank, nicely renovated Altbau will vary greatly.

[darbid 1]

Hi imosdal thank you for your reply.

 

When I compare the immoscout result to planet home, immoscout is much cheaper. How reliable do you think immoscout is? I was thinking it is pretty reliable because it is just reproducing database statistics. But I was surprised it showed cheaper prices, I would have thought it would show the opposite given that it only has the asking prices and not final prices.

 

My theory on planethome is the report is linked to HVB bank and they produce the report to get people to sell their house with them, thus the upwards "adjusting" of prices.

[lmosdal 527]

The bank may paint a rosy picture or they may add more specific information that affects the overall price based area + style/type of house, baujahr, umwelt sticker, public transport, etc.

[trybefore 6]

Haha, nice to see my old thread again. I did, buy a piece of land, get planning permission and build. With only minor problems. Have no idea yet if it is a good "investment" or not yet. But am now starting to get itchy feet...

[pigsnuck 14]

I am also considering the option to rent or buy. Being a computational maths guy, I put all the variables into a spreadsheet to find out the answer, and I can only say OMFG, WTF dude!

 

Check out my spreadsheet - it clearly comes down on the side of renting for 20 years. BUY = lose EUR 196,780 vs RENT = lose EUR 27,524

 

A few notes:

 

1. The cash inflation rate works out to 2.755% if you average it out since 1960. (Figures from Wikipedia)

2. Capital growth is averaged out over 8 years, calculated from http://www.pfandbrief.de/cms/_internet.nsf/tindex/en_86.htm. I would be very interested if someone has figures for a longer period.

3. I cross-referenced my "capital growth adjusted for inflation" figure against DIW figures stating property values have dropped 25% in 30 years. Note, this is NOT 25%/30, it is a compound interest rate.

4. Rent and costs increase every year with inflation.

 

Go ahead! Poke holes in it! I am very willing to hear people poke holes in my spreadsheet, but it is correct based upon all information currently known by me.

[RAMBO 103]

Property tax 2500 euro per year?

[swimmer 3,707]

There is one obvious flaw. It's not like-for-like. If a house is worth 180k, you do not pay 19k rent (that's a rental on nearer 500k). You'd be paying (?) 500-600. A better comparison would be to base rental payment on what you think the equivalet reisdual value of the bought house would be.

 

I think property tax is also not a relevant cost - it's the same if you rent, as it's passed on to you. There are also possibly some costs of renting that are equivalent of byung fees - two months provision etc.

 

It's interesting table. I'd say your deposit interest rate is a couple of points too high at 5%. Particularly remebering it'd be be taxed too. That has a high impact on your rental side. We pay 25%+ on interest income but not on the notional cost of cash invested in housing. Different story if you invest perhaps.

 

Also, of course, few people invest in property in the expectation of making a whopping loss. Related to this, where you buy in Germany is very important. Averages are misleading. Also the 25 years were not at all typical of course.

[LaineyIrish 239]

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but I'm just wondering what the "costs" column is for in the buying a house section?

[trule 33]

deposit rate = 2.0% - tax, around 1.2% if you are lucky

 

new build, buy direct from builder, no markler fee

 

not sure what your costs are? I think they are double counting of something.

 

I see mortgage payments of 250k against rent payment of 290k and the final house value 180k + purchase costs against accumulated interest on 100k. buy v rent: +40 +180 -15 against 100k + 20 years interest at 1.2% ... and you need to consider if house values have dropped relative to inflation because that has a big impact on the outcome.

 

With inflation at 3% your cash will loose value, so you might start with 100k but it will have value around 65k in 20 years, in today dollars given the _current_ conditions. The house starting at 250k might well drop in value to 180k over 20 years in today dollars, but would you expect it to drop also with inflation to under 125k over 20 years in today dollars. I don't see that level of price difference between new and 20 year old houses in todays market.

 

Over the longer term, 20 years, it may be a valid approximation to assume 0% growth on cash adjusted for inflation and tax, and a 1% per year loss in value of property which largely reflects a need to renovate older buildings.

[pappnase 2,653]

In year 1 the extra costs are the makler costs, the taxes etc. Other years it just seems to be property tax.

 

Interestingly the makler cost doesn't seem to be included in the rental calculation.

 

Also it doesn't cover the 'next 10 years' ie the period after the mortgage is completely paid off where the buyer could be investing 12K per year(Monthly mortgage payments) but the renter would still be spending the money on rent.

 

For me personally it was obvious that buying was a better idea.

 

We had a good deposit, but the interest we were getting on it in the bank was rubbish. My wife and I are busy people who couldn't afford to lose that money meaning that investment strategies that offered "better than bank" rates were not something we were comfortable with.

 

We found a place that we felt was a trade-up in terms of standard of living (House not flat, garden, better shops etc). The monthly payments are the same give or take €50 per month and we will be finished with repayments in 5 years.

 

Fact of the matter is that it's different for everyone.

 

Somewhere upthread there was a calculation from a German magazine showing that the property market (Rent v Buy) in various parts of Germany meant that, sometimes in some places owning is significantly better than buying, other times it's the other way round.

 

 

[jackal 4]

This link has a realistic table

 

Focus LInk

 

Also this discussion

 

Was ist besser: mieten oder kaufen?