Are we in the middle of a financial meltdown?

1,054 posts in this topic

 

Why would the stock exchange go up?

US markets bounced up last night. These things are never straight lines, and we will see it bouncing up over the next few weeks, but I see the natural progression as DOWN over 12 months 'cos I just cannot see businesses posting anything other than crap figures.

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if you want to believe that the stock prices are dependent on nothing more than human emotions then fine , I choose to believe that there is the odd smart lad/lady out there who stands to make a killing - I prefer to count myself amongst that bunch.

Ignore human emotions at your peril.

From newscientist.com:

 

 

Research from the University of Cambridge suggests that the movements of money in the financial markets are correlated to stock traders' levels of two hormones: the steroids testosterone and cortisol.
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true but if you pick the right stocks and look for the long term like Parnell then there certainly is a killing to me made. You *might* make more of killing by holding off a few days, weeks or months but you *might* make less. The situation seems close to its darkest at the moment and stocks will certainly be well above these levels in 5 years time.

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...if you pick the right stocks...

Ha ha, good one.

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"I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years" - Warren Buffett.

 

I agree that longer term we shall look back on these days and laugh, but, given the choice between cash in the bank and cash in stocks at the present time...hmmmmmm.

 

What stocks would you buy today? Insolvency firms?

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Guy is full of shit , there are a ton of bargain stocks out there , this market has hit bottom and you heard it here first.

Look at these data and charts and explain why we have hit bottom. If anything, the yields show no sustainable positive movement. I see at least three dead-cat bounces, maybe five if we get technical about it.

post-26226-1223369431_thumb.jpg

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Ignore human emotions at your peril.

From newscientist.com:

 

Research from the University of Cambridge suggests that the movements of money in the financial markets are correlated to stock traders' levels of two hormones: the steroids testosterone and cortisol.

not exactly rocket science. Cortisol is released when an individual is stressed and is a component of the 'stress reaction". One other component of the stress reaction is a decrease in testosterone.

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Look at these data and charts and explain why we have hit bottom. If anything, the yields show no sustainable positive movement. I see at least three dead-cat bounces, maybe five if we get technical about it.

post-26226-1223369431_thumb.jpg

I'm not interested in chartism , I'm interested in fundamental analysis - comparing equity yields on cast iron companies with interest rates - if you want to extrapolate short term market movements then end it now and get it over with.

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Given that the housing, finance and motor sectors are in the toilet and retail is following, where would you invest?

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alcohol.

 

people drink lots when they are miserable and they drink lots when they are happy. win-win. I'd probably look at a company with a good share of the take-home market.

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people drink lots when they are miserable and they drink lots when they are happy. win-win. I'd probably look at a company with a good share of the take-home market.

Agree, but not just alcohol but any company involved in some form of home entertainment, take away food etc. People always hedgehog when it gets rough.

 

EDIT: Iceland has frozen assets? Fish Stocks?

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No killings to be made there though, are there? A safe bet but low returns, surely?

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But as JE says, in 5 years time we'll all be going "oh wasnt that scary, not". I am though really interested in how the banking landscape will look with so many banks now being nationalised in some form or other.

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Luxury goods and services. Because someone is bound to get very rich by the time this is all over.

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Given that the housing, finance and motor sectors are in the toilet and retail is following, were would you invest?

Companies that do not have to borrow money for operations, possibly pay a dividend, leader or second position in at least two of their business fields. Stocks that have decreased to within 10% of their five-year low.

 

How about tech, tech services, and manufacturing. Also most anything with energy conservation/green initiative that fits two of the previous sentence's criteria.

 

How about Siemens AG?

 

Disclaimer: I work there but hold no shares, and don't know any non-public financial info.

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Manufacturing I don't follow. Markets are drying up left and right.

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