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About circuits

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  • Location Berlin
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  1. 10 months after ordering, my Cupra Born arrived yesterday. Yes!   Everything works the way it should so far and the driver assistance (auto cruise control, speed limit sign recognition, lane keeping, lane changing, stop & go) makes everything easy-going. I opted for the base model 18" aero wheels due to improved range. I was kind of overwhelmed though with the whole UI and needed to spend 2 hours last night familiarizing myself with all the system settings. Before you used to buy a car that happened to have a computer - nowadays you buy a computer that happens to be a car.   The current wait time for the Born is about 4-6 months now that demand has dropped a bit due to lowered subsidies next year and perhaps supply chain easing.    
  2. Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation
  3. Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation

    My strong disagreement with this comment still stands: "The car performs extremely well in snow." Drunken grandpa, swerving into the wrong lane and almost crashing into a traffic light. There's a long way to go before I would ever dare using FSD in that climate.     This line here tells me everything I need to know, namely that you haven't spent time driving in such a climate where even the best wipers and heated windshields get obscured and frozen up in various places.   Furthermore, I dread to think how 2 or more Teslas running FSD would interact with one another when one starts to swerve/skid/spin out like in that video. Reacting to other vehicles' missteps on snow isn't simple.  
  4. Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation

      How much time have you spent driving in a snowy -30C climate? The black ice would like a word with you   Learning to drive in that kind of weather is intense as it requires combining a wide skill-set: learning individual vehicle handling characteristics, recognizing the effects of recent weather conditions (eg. did it melt then freeze), memorizing or learning to preemptively recognize risky topology (eg. some roads/intersections are prone to becoming slippery) and maintaining an unusually heightened awareness of fellow drivers who can more easily lose control and hit you.   Not to mention those were relatively clear conditions in that video! Blizzards, flurries, freezing rain and sleet could quickly degrade Tesla's sensors. There are times where you're grateful to have an entire windshield to peek out from during those moments when half or more is covered in a frozen mess. The surface are of the cameras is minuscule in comparison and I can picture those getting easily obscured.
  5. Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation

      omg it's driving like a drunken grandpa. You call that extremely impressive?   I grew up in that Canadian province and learned how to drive in such conditions. I suspect people would call the cops if they saw someone driving like that (I would). Winter driving is all about preventing "underestimated lack of grip" (usually from black ice) and such driving can lead to very bad situations, very quickly.   tldr; After seeing that video, I would never, ever engage FSD in such conditions.
  6. To recap, here are the new Innovationsprämie rules as of 01.01.23:   - Vehicles under €40,000 net list price receive €4,500 from the state - Vehicles from 40,000 € to 65,000 € net list price receive 3,000 € from the state -  From 1.9.2023 the subsidy will be limited to private individuals   In 2024, only EVs <€40k will be eligible, this time for €3,000.   During the last quarter delivery times have generally been getting worse for all manufacturers and prices are obviously rising as well.   I finally have a fixed production date for my Cupra Born and should receive it at the end of November, so 10 months after ordering! Shipping times were generally only 4-6 months for anyone who unlike me didn't order the driver assistance package which is subject to massive part shortages. Meanwhile there are many ID.3/ID.4 customers who have been waiting 1-1.5 years.   And finally, some amusing history - in the early 90's, Motorola secretly made an EV prototype from a 1987 Corvette:  
  7. Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation

      As of January 1st 2023, the Innovationsprämie for the Model Y is reduced from 5000 to 3500 Euro - and is also from then on only for private buyers.   In mid-2023 it will be reduced again and the funds will only be available until they run out, probably by the end of the year.   fwiw by June this year I already saw people cancelling their Model 3 orders from January 2022 because they realized they weren't going to receive them before the end of the year.   Any EV manufacturer that in June was promising a 2022 delivery for a new order of a custom configured vehicle that wasn't already on pre-order and planned for production was either lying or living in a fantasy world.   By mid-August 2022, the projected delivery time for the Model Y Long Range was already mid-2023. What remains to be seen is if the supposedly short delivery times of the Model Y Performance will hold. I believe so far those have only been pre-configured:  
  8.   Wow, that's not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying both that 1) 93% of private new car buyers are buying cars in segments where EVs are available and 2) that batteries are getting so much cheaper every year that by the time an ICE ban comes around, EVs could that very well match the MINIS price segment.   By 2035, there also might be enough used EVs for sale to possibly satisfy the second-hand market. So far EVs have required less maintenance than ICE vehicles and often age better mechanically. As for battery wear, more major manufacturers are using modular battery packs which means replacing weaker modules doesn't have to be prohibitively expensive.
  9. Once again, why not look at the actual numbers before making assumptions about what people can afford?   In 2021 only 6.9% of new, private PKW purchases were in the cheapest €13,000 - €18,000 segment:     Whereas the bulk of private German PKW purchases are in the next 2 categories:   KLEINWAGEN            8,9m / 18.5%        €18,000 - €24,000 KOMPAKTKLASSE   11,9m / 24.7%        €25,000 - €35,000   There are already indeed a variety of EV in the aforementioned price segments - and as battery technology keeps rapidly improving the way it has in the last 15 years, EVs in the cheapest MINIS class will be in reach in the coming years.   There's no magic wand that will make current EVs cheaper because batteries are still quite expensive to source and build. In fact, in 2016 49% of the cost of an EV was the battery. Now it's 32% and by 2030 it could be 19%: 
  10.   If you ordered an ID.3 or Cupra Born in the last couple years, it was €38K minus €10K for the Umweltbonus + Innovationsprämie. So €28K.   The €3.570 Umweltbonus will continue until 2025 but nobody knows what's going to happen yet next year to the Innovationsprämie as Lindner wants to kill it.   Frankly, the Golf's interior is still a step above either but VW are getting massive push-back and have promised better interiors with the upcoming facelifts for both.
  11.   I mentioned this in the very first post. Since then it has been ruled to be tax-free:   "Gehört das Elektroauto einer Privatperson, so sind die Auszahlungen aus der THG-Quote steuerfrei. Für Fahrzeuge im Betriebsvermögen gelten die allgemeinen steuerlichen Regelungen."
  12. The average weight of an American vehicle is 4156 lbs. while the Model 3, Mach E, and VW ID series are all close to that.   The average pickup truck is about 5-5500 lbs. while the Ford F-150 Lightning EV is 6000.   Roads get redesigned/resurfaced all the time so this is just a fluff argument. Not to mention battery capacity is continually increasing every decade so the current weight difference will lessen with time.
  13. An EV-only spin-off would be a good way to unshackle themselves from their rigid bureaucratic structures.   CARIAD (aka Car I Am Digital ...) is a classic management disaster: VW realized too late that software would be the defining aspect of 21st century vehicles and in a panic created a new daughter company and hired thousands of software engineers to make their own home-grown auto OS. The deadlines were unrealistic, the pressure was too high and the results have been painfully slow.   "Insider sagen: 10 Prozent der Probleme bei Cariad sind technischer Natur, 90 Prozent kultureller."   The ID.3 GTX is an interesting counter-example: VW wasn't planning to make an AWD performance version of the ID.3 but a bunch of Azubis hacked one together as a design study. The internal and public reaction was so favourable that they changed their minds.   Re. Margins: when you're the largest vehicle manufacturer in the world I guess the focus for the lower end, low-margin EV segment is profiting on volume, right? You also have to take into account the carbon credits that VW can use to offset their non-EV production. VW's EV-only car-sharing company We Share is also another example of way of profiting from carbon credits.  
  14.   The definition of vaporware is something that will likely never be produced - not something that will be more expensive than a projected price. It's not as if Cupra is marketing the Urban Rebel as "WOW THE 25K EV!" in any of their press releases.   You're right that with current inflation we don't know what prices will be like then. Nevertheless VW is still the world's largest auto manufacturer. If any company is likely to eventually get their supply chain figured out it's VW. Theoretically  ...and they're just itching to leverage cheaper Spanish labour at their Martorell factory to make their cheaper Cupra EVs.   Unlike some CEO's, Herbert Diess so far doesn't tend to bullshit:   "price is a challenge. We are working on electric cars around 20k euros for entry segments."   fwiw this year the ID.3 Pure (45kwh) cost 22k after subsidy. Shipping times and availability have been brutal though. But hey, it actually exists haha.   I'm not a VW fanboi though. I'd buy any reliable brand of EV that had the specs I want at the right price.   One last thing: it looks like SEAT is going to be killed off by 2030 and fully replaced by Cupra. SEAT barely has presence outside of the EU and doesn't have a single EV planned while Cupra already has 3.
  15. The main reason this new VW/Cupra model won't be released until 2025 is cost - or should I say, profit!   VW need to really get their battery manufacturing costs down, fix their supply chain issues and improve their entire manufacturing process.   Calling it vaporware is disingenuous as it implies it won't be released. VW has a decent EV track record: they announced the ID.3 in 2016 and shipped it in 2019. The SEAT El-Born was announced in 2019 and released 2 years later as the Cupra Born.    Re. tires: For better or for worse the trend for EVs having narrower tires is mainly about increasing range through less friction and drag.   Narrow tire pros: - less friction, so longer travel range due to less power usage - reduced "tramlining" - faster acceleration due to less weight/inertia (although rim size has a bigger influence) - for some drivers and vehicles better steering and handling due to less turning resistance (due to less friction)   Wider tire pros: - better traction/grip - increased stopping power - better grip in turns   As for those 21" tires on the concept car: obviously for the boy racers lol. Sure they look wild but I prefer 18" rims due to the lower price and better comfort & range.