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Everything posted by murphaph

  1. Brexit: The fallout

    Brexit is going to tear the UK apart IMO. Scotland will probably leave first, even before NI. NI unionists historically associate with Scottish lowland people more than the English. Most protestants in NI are not established church but Presbyterian, Methodist etc. Scotland leaving the UK would be a major psychological blow to them. It would then be just a matter of time before NI left England & Wales, probably not to be missed by 90% of those living in what will be left of the UK (at that stage the country would need a different name as Wales is part of the Kingdom of England).   I actually think the Irish sea border will delay Irish unity, not accelerate it. A hard Brexit with hard border would snuff out the last bit of private sector activity in NI. 30% of NI's exports go south. Only 1% of the south's exports go north. This would (coupled with a UK wide recession and corresponding reduced Barnett Formula funding) see living standards plummet in NI, pushing small u unionists to question the union more vigorously.
  2. Brexit: The fallout

    I'll be amazed if there isn't a GE in the next few weeks given the polling data as of today:     Johnson is definitely able to sell his bullshit much better than May and Corbyn is pathetic in every respect so he will fancy his chances at getting an overall majority (probably healthy one, given Cameron achieved a majority on 37% of the popular vote. Way to go FPTP by the way).   I'd probably welcome it to be honest at this stage. He can throw the DUP under the bus and draw a customs border down the Irish sea and GB can exit the EU and do as it pleases.
  3. Brexit: The fallout

    IDS is one of the stupidest people in the UK. He's on the same level as Bridgen and Francois.   Some interesting perspectives from Irish living in the UK here:
  4. Brexit: The fallout

    I think he has to go for a GE and probably before B-day. Elections are held on Thursdays in the UK. If he waits until after Brexit he would have to wait a whole week as the 1st is the Friday and that would be exactly the time the fresh food starts vanishing from the shelves if not everything else as people start to panic buy when they see the fruit and veg section empty out. I think he will indeed agree a pact with Farage so BXP only field candidates in Labour leave constituencies. BXP can do tremendous damage (easily 50 seats) to Tory vote, even if they themselves don't get a single MP returned.
  5. Brexit: The fallout

    Dear Jesus:   It actually gets funnier because the laws of the game of association football are made by IFAB (not FIFA directly) and IFAB is made up of FIFA (with 50% voting power) and the 4 FAs of the UK. This means the UK has a veto on any law changes in the game as a supermajority is required.
  6. Brexit: The fallout

    The kind of pressure a PM is under when he's just torn up all their country's FTAs and left their biggest market. The kind of pressure a PM is under when they've walked out of their nuclear regulatory body which means even medicinal radioactive isotopes cannot be sold to said country by any reputable country in the world. The kind of pressure a PM is under when fresh fruit and veg starts vanishing from supermarket shelves. That kind of pressure. I assume election a week after crash out. If he tries to time the election for B-day he will have great difficulty because he needs Labour to vote for it due to the FTPA (requires 2/3 of HoC to vote for an election this early).
  7. Brexit: The fallout

    I already told you why the EU/Ireland would prefer hard border up front rather than negotiated hard border anyway later.
  8. Brexit: The fallout

    From Ireland's perspective it's a negotiated hard border (because there is no unicorn technology to keep an open border between two jurisdictions with different regulatory and customs regimes on each side) or one that comes about through no deal crash out. The negotiated one could endure a long time and would be "Ireland specific". The crash out one would see chaos at the Irish border on the 1st of November but crucially also at every British port and the effects will impact the entire UK. There will be massive pressure on any UK government to agree to whatever it needs to agree to to stop the chaos.    
  9. Brexit: The fallout

    Sam Coates says the UK govt. doesn't like what Tusk said in that short tweet. Truth hurts:
  10. Brexit: The fallout

    He might indeed. He is standing across from the worst Leader of Her Majesty's Opposition for many many years.    Today, Donald Tusk gave his response to Johnson's bluster in a fairly short but barbed tweet in which he said:
  11. Brexit: The fallout

    The UK will face exactly the same issues on November 1st as it does now except its negotiating position as a 3rd country will be much weaker.   The UK cannot escape geography. It is not because of the EU that the UK exports more to Ireland than to China. It's geography. The UK will continue to trade largely with its neighbours as virtually every other country in the world does.   The UK will therefore need an FTA with the EU more than any other FTA. Even an FTA with the US will not be a replacement for one with your immediate neighbours.   The UK will, upon asking for an FTA with the EU, be asked how it intends to handle EU citizens' rights, the "divorce bill" and the Irish border. Except now it will have 0 FTAs with anyone and will be "trading" on WTO rules alone with the entire world. It will be under immense pressure to get the EU FTA agreed and it will agree to whatever the EU wants. It loses any shred of bargaining power it has on Novermber 1st.
  12. Brexit: The fallout

    May got herself a shite deal. The EU proposed an NI only backstop which would have allowed GB to go on its merry way, leaving NI effectively within the SM and CU of the EU and thus preventing a hard border in Ireland.   May thought she had a super lead over Corbyn (polling data told her that) and then Nick Timothy advised her to call a snap general election to improve on her slim majority. She lost that slim majority and was then reliant on the nutters in the DUP -> no chance of an NI only backstop after this.   May then asked the EU could she extend the backstop to the whole UK, to which the EU agreed (but some EU leaders did not think this was a good idea).   It never was an EU construct to trap the UK in the EU. It was an extraordinary offer from the EU to allow a region the size of NI to be treated specially by the EU. Out but not out. Most NI business would leap at the chance. It's DUP ideology that prevents this.   I believe Johnson wants to hold a general election and regain an overall majority and throw the DUP under the bus by resurrecting the NI only backstop.  
  13. Brexit: The fallout

    And despite John Bolton's bullshit in London this week, the UK will NOT get any trade deal with the United States if a hard border is the result of Brexit. The United States Congress has to approve any such trade deals and it won't. This FTA is not in the gift of the executive.   Nancy Pelosi said last week that it would not get through the House of Representatives and now Chuck Schumer (Dem leader of Senate) says the Dems in the Senate would not support such an FTA either (his letter to Mike Pompeo is explicit!). There are enough Irish American Republicans in the Senate to kill it there if it some how managed to get through the Democrat controlled House (extremely unlikely anyway).
  14. Brexit: The fallout

    Johnson wrote an open letter to Tusk yesterday. It is not aimed at the EU. It is for domestic consumption to make the average Tory voter think the UK tried and the EU was intransigent. Even the Europe editor of the Torygraph tore it to shreds:
  15. Brexit: The fallout

    None of these assholes will ever have to break the news to a police officer's spouse that their loved one has been blown to bits by a terrorist bomb at the border. English politicians have always tried to contain the effects of their country's presence in Ireland to Ireland itself (and later Northern Ireland). See Ulsterisation.   This is what Ulsterisation looks like in 2019.
  16. Brexit: The fallout

    A reminder that terrorists are still around and the knowledge of how to put sophisticated bombs together did not vanish with the GFA. A clear attempt to murder PSNI officers directly at the border yesterday:
  17. Brexit: The fallout

    Seems like Lidl Ireland has their UK based suppliers over a barrel:   Many of those products would be uneconomical once tariffs are applied, so they will simply not be exported to Ireland from the UK and will be substituted by EU manufacturers.   Ireland is historically at the end of the UK logistics chain but it doesn't have to be and once companies strike up new relationships with continental suppliers it will be difficult to go back to UK ones, even if Brexit is sorted.   For context, the UK exports more to the RoI than it does to China.
  18. Brexit: The fallout

    The United States, economically at least.
  19. Brexit: The fallout

    Maybe Britain needs to go through this humiliation. The rest of Europe has pretty much had the indignity of being occupied by a conquerer. Britain hasn't experienced this in almost a thousand years.   Being occupied and controlled by a foreign power tends to remind one that one is not invincible.
  20. Brexit: The fallout
  21. Brexit: The fallout

    The main string puller being Vladimir Putin and the shame is that so very many of us Europeans (definitely not just in the UK) cannot see that he wants to destroy our precious union.   That this continent which spent almost its entire history at war is now at peace and relatively prosperous is the envy of half the world and many of us don't even realise it.
  22. Anyone living in Germany but working remotely?

    Thanks very much Liebling.
  23. Brexit: The fallout

    At least the right wing UK press won't be able to blame Barmy Brussels Bureaucrats for when this goes tits up. Actually they probably will anyway.   Introducing charging sounds so simple. Of course it won't be.
  24. Anyone living in Germany but working remotely?

    Rather than opening a new thread I will continue this one.   My GF's German employer (normal salaried employee) is going to close the German branch office but they would like my GF to be able to continue working for them (home office as at present) based out of their French branch office with presumably a new French contract. It would be worth some "admin" effort on her part as the position is not badly paid and the flexibility to work from home is really important (son just started school).   Am I correct in understanding that her French office would need to transfer to her the full (gross) amount of her salary each month and she would need to make 2 transfers, one to the Finanzamt (Income tax) and one to the KK (for KK and all the other social insurances). She does not want to become a freelancer as she has no interest in gaining additional real clients and the Scheinselbständigkeit would be quite obvious.   She will clearly need some professional advice as to the amounts and whatnot but it seems it is doable and not ridiculously complicated, is that about right?   Would a Lohnsteuerhilfeverein be able to advise here?