murphaph

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Everything posted by murphaph

  1. Brexit: The fallout

    Keleth was right. The tone is always chosen as to rub people up the wrong way. I won't bite any more :-) I will just say that I consider all Irish citizens to be my fellow citizens, regardless as to how they came to hold Irish citizenship :-)
  2. Brexit: The fallout

    Source: https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851  
  3. Brexit: The fallout

    Absolutely! Services mostly fall outside of WTO rules. Service sector companies are screwed unless the EU is very generous as the UK economy depends much more on service exports to the EU than the EU economy depends on service exports to the UK.   The idea that a no deal Brexit will just present the UK economy with a slight bump in the road is extremely optimistic. There's no reason for this optimism. The UK trade relationship with the EU post hard Brexit will be further away than even Trump's United States (there are at least bilateral treaties between the EU and US, even if there is no FTA). Between the UK and EU there will be nothing. Not one agreement. There will be some unilateral actions taken by the EU for example to allow certain freedoms in aviation but nothing like open skies as at present. These unilateral actions as not "mini deals" as the UK press has reported them. The EU will implement them as long as they are beneficial to the EU and can terminate them without notice whenever that ceases to be the case.   The EU and the UK become direct competitors after Brexit. That can't be stressed enough.  
  4. Brexit: The fallout

    The time it will take to get back to the place the UK is currently in (Germany+ deal) will see many industries completely wiped out. The car industry, for example cannot function in the way it currently does post-Brexit, with parts, sub-assemblies, assemblies and finished vehicles crossing the channel several times during manufacture. The delays due to customs stop all this as delivery times become too unpredictable. That sector alone will see huge job losses.
  5. Brexit: The fallout

    I didn't say you don't live in Frankfurt. The lady doth protest too much.   AL is a backward state unless you believe in forcing women to have babies they don't want. 
  6. Brexit: The fallout

    BMurphy maybe you'd feel more at home in Alabama. You don't appear to in Frankfurt.
  7. Brexit: The fallout

    That greased piglet talk is not figurative. It's some fcuking Eton thing I'm sure.
  8. Brexit: The fallout

    No worries John. Take care of that eye!
  9. Brexit: The fallout

    From Twitter:Tory strategy "The forest was shrinking, but the trees kept voting for the Axe, for the Axe was clever and convinced the Trees that because his handle was made of wood, he was one of them."
  10. Brexit: The fallout

    The fact we speak English as does someone in Bumfuck Alabama does not make us culturally closer to the Bumfuckian than the Frankfurter who probably speaks better English than the Bumfuckian.   Europe shares the important things like seeing the need for a social welfare system to provide a safety net for those unfortunate enough to need it. We don't let people die young because they couldn't afford healthcare. We typically don't believe in your right to carry a handgun around in your sock. We are culturally much more alike (and that includes our British friends!) in the EU than you may realise. Culture goes way beyond a superficial thing like language.   As for your second point...well it seems you think people should be free to voice racist opinions under the guise of freedom of speech. Racism isn't unorthodox. It's wrong.
  11. Brexit: The fallout

    If I looked in the dictionary for the definition of appalling person I wouldn't be surprised to see a picture of frogface himself there.
  12. Brexit: The fallout

    If the DUP abstain they can claim they didn't support the deal. Then Johnson has a real chance of getting this through. If there's another bung for the DUP then it could be all over...until the FTA negotiations begin. They will take many years IMO. I will be amazed if there is no extension to the transition period requested/granted.
  13. Brexit: The fallout

    What does it matter what the satisfaction rating is based on? In reality it's based on multiple factors. Ireland has a long connection with continental Europe going back centuries. Why do you think so many Bavarian kids are called Killian? Irish monks went over to Europe to spread Christianity (and knowledge) during the dark ages after the fall of Rome: -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiberno-Scottish_mission https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/religious-odyssey_gallus-and-the-irish-monks--grandfathers-of-european-culture-/43813106   The Irish are much more politically engaged than very many in the EU! Just turn on the radio during the day time in Ireland and Germany and compare the amount of political discussion v music in both countries. Martin Schulz' comments were widely reported in Ireland. I distinctly remember it in fact. There has been significant public debate in Ireland about "where Europe is going" because we have had so many referendums on European integration!   I think you are exaggerating the level of anti-Eastern European sentiment (racism) in Ireland but I accept it is there and vigilance is important to see that it is contained. There is no place for it and the Irish should know better than most about what it feels like to be discriminated against!  
  14. Brexit: The fallout

    It's worse than May's deal from a remainer perspective for sure, much worse. If I was an ERG type though I might see Brexit itself slipping away and might be motivated to vote for this just to get the UK out of the EU and then regroup later. The ERG are looking like voting for it (bar perhaps one or two extreme extremists like Owen Patterson).   It looks like it's going to be closer than I first assumed however. Labour are clearly worried about defections as they have introduced a three line whip on the matter and apparently anyone voting for it will face deselection. There are however still some Labour leave constituencies according to polling so those MPs will face a Hobson's choice.
  15. Brexit: The fallout

    On the whole it's what Ireland wanted out of the negotiations if Brexit had to happen at all. Border in the Irish sea effectively. Land border remains invisible.   We have no right to look for any more than these things from the UK. What GB does is none of our business. NI is different going back to the Anglo Irish Agreement and of course the GFA.   Clearly Ireland would have preferred May's deal. Johnson's means a hard Brexit for GB which is projected to cause almost as much damage as no deal to the UK economy, which will clearly have knock on effects on Ireland.   I don't see how Johnson gets it through the HoC though.
  16. Brexit: The fallout

    There are tens of thousands of "poor expats" in Spain who managed to make a better life on the costas as their sterling pension went further. Those people will have no choice but to return home as inflation eats into their (now weak and in future also frozen) pensions.
  17. Brexit: The fallout

    Sorry not quoting you just need to clear the quote.   We are close to the original proposal from the EU just about 2 years ago. But this is a hard old Brexit for GB. Hard to imagine a deal much harder than May's will get through the HoC.
  18. Brexit: The fallout

    The remain campaign was indeed utterly pathetic. It's like it was taboo to actually praise the EU for its achievements. Everything was phrased in the context of trade and markets on the remain side. The leave side appealed to abstract feelings like sovereignty. The remain side should have been much more positive about the spirit of the EU and about being part of Europe for hundreds of years.   The leaders of the remain side were of course Messrs. Cameron and Corbyn who are both self confessed eurosceptics so I'd argue the good ship Remain was holed below the waterline before it even left port. It's only now we are seeing more impassioned language about the UK's place in the EU.
  19. Brexit: The fallout

    The leave campaign presented a Brexit for all seasons so nobody knows the exact breakdown of reasons for voting to leave. For sure a good chunk of leave voters don't like foreigners and don't like FoM but not all and definitely a minority of the British population as a whole.   I think anti Eastern European sentiment in Ireland is confined to a small minority of the kind of people who never work and complain about the foreigners taking their jobs and benefits all at the same time.   Satisfaction with Ireland's membership of the EU remains stubbornly high for the handful of Eurosceptics there. It's consistently at around 90%. 
  20. Brexit: The fallout

    The last Eurobarometer says you are simply completely wrong about this: https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/07/16/why-freedom-of-movement-may-be-a-lot-more-popular-than-you-t   FoM is very popular and even in the UK it has a 63% popularity rating.
  21. Brexit: The fallout

    We'll agree to disagree. I believe most Europeans value our freedom of movement. I hear the stories of hassle my non-EU colleagues have getting their work permits and thank my lucky stars I'm an EU citizen.    The UK is going to be the odd man out in western Europe. Even non member states will have continued freedom of movement for their people. Only well educated and skilled Brits will be able to live and work in the EU. The "lower classes" will be trapped on their island. They will not experience life in the rest of Europe.
  22. Brexit: The fallout

    Like I said I don't have a problem with your opinions. I have a problem with repeating long since debunked stuff about the EU that simply isn't true.   I find you a hypocrite for the way you make full use of the freedom of movement you despise. You must admit this is hypocritical behaviour if this is really true.   Also I find it odd that as a nationalist from Ireland that you consider Ireland to have already won its independence. Any Irish nationalist I've ever come across would say the "occupied 6" say otherwise ;-)   Me personally I have no problem with the current constitutional position of NI.
  23. Brexit: The fallout

    Conservatism is fine. It's the re-iterating of long since debunked nonsense about the EU that irks.
  24. Brexit: The fallout

    Nope. Is the PM directly elected by the entire British electorate? What about the cabinet? They are "elected" by one constituency and most cabinet members are in totally safe seats which means in fact that their local party association are the only people making any decision as to them becoming MPs. Then the PM who is in the same position (safe seat) chooses the cabinet.   The European Commission is chosen by the President of the Commission BUT each commissioner must be approved by the EU Parliament! This is far far far more democratic than most equivalent national parliaments where the equivalent of the commission (the cabinet) does not have to be approved by the parliament itself.   The Commission can only propose legislation which they think will pass through EUparl too!   You are reading too much Daily Express and believing the lies contained therein.
  25. Brexit: The fallout

    BMurphy your argument seems to be that Brits can't trust their government more than anything against the EU. You could just as easily argue that post Brexit British governments could force people into a domestic army or indeed into all sorts of things they might hate but Brexit Britain will have withdrawn from the ECHR if the Tory right wingers get their way so there will be no higher court to appeal to.