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About murphaph

  • Birthday 11/11/1978

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  • Location Brandenburg
  • Nationality Irish
  • Hometown Dublin
  • Gender Male
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  1. Brexit: The fallout

    Tomorrow's vote will be "interesting" with that concrete guarantee from the ECJ that "no Brexit" is an option.
  2. Brexit: The fallout

    But A50 can only be extended in good faith so it's reasonable that the much greater concession of allowing it to be unilaterally withdrawn should also only be allowed in good faith. If a member state withdrew its A50 notice only to give it again shortly afterwards, the original withdrawal could be challenged and the ECJ would presumably rule that it had not been withdrawn in good faith and was thus void, immediately rendering the member state a third country.   It would be extremely high risk stuff anyway.   I'm not sure any of this is good for the EU. I think I'd rather the UK took the deal on offer and left in March. The disruptive influence of the UK can't be allowed divert the EU's attention indefinitely.
  3. Brexit: The fallout

    Thanks for your compliment, much appreciated. Anything I say is purely my opinion and can be incorrect :-)   I still think Spain will get whatever assurances it needs and believe it should be fully supported by the EU 26. Spain made things very clear when it comes to Gibraltar and that was very early in the proceedings. 
  4. Brexit: The fallout

    The banks failed last time because a housing market bubble burst and with it put tens of thousands of tradespeople out of work. The real export led economy simply carried on though. If a bank fails this time because of over exposure to a foreign market I would expect very little impact to the rest of the Irish economy.   There will be damage to the Irish economy but I do not believe it will be a crash.
  5. Brexit: The fallout

    Just to clarify, Ireland currently sends 10% of its exports to the UK. The dependence on the UK economy is not insignificant but generally overstated. The EU-Japan FTA could easily offset any losses in exports to the UK. Ireland is much more "Brexit ready" than the UK. Government agencies have been feverishly working at supporting SMEs in diversifying their markets and it has paid off as the share of exports to the UK has fallen from over 13% before the Brexit vote.   There will also be some degree of relocation of UK businesses to Ireland in the event of a no deal Brexit.
  6. Brexit: The fallout

    Spain won't come under any pressure from the EU 26. Ireland can testify to that and Ireland is a much smaller country. Spain will be (rightly) supported by fellow EU member states. I recall at the very beginning the EU's position was that trade deals as they apply to Gibraltar would need the expressed consent of Madrid.   The Gib jobs will mostly vanish after Brexit anyway because the place exports nothing but services (e.g gambling, insurance) which would need access to the single market, which the deal does not include (except in a limited way for NI).
  7. Brexit: The fallout

    It's Mad-Max levels of chaos we are talking about if they go for no deal. No deal means no transition. All the treaties of the European Union cease to apply with immediate effect on the 29th of March. It's simply not realistic. People would die because of it.
  8. Brexit: The fallout Kind of sad listening to that man.
  9. Brexit: The fallout

    We're heading towards no deal or no Brexit. May's deal really doesn't look like it can get through parliament. No deal is not a realistic option.
  10. Brexit: The fallout

    Sammy Wilson was unequivocal in his comments to Sky News this evening. The DUP will not support this. May needs Labour to support it and that seems unlikely. I think we are heading towards a Tory leadership contest. May has nothing left.
  11. Brexit: The fallout

    Yes it's now make or break. The EU and UK negotiation teams have agreed a text. Now the UK cabinet and parliament just have to agree to what their side agreed with. Could easily fail at either step.
  12. Brexit: The fallout

    If one reads the comments sections of Daily Express articles one sees plenty of ire directed at the "micks". Our politicians in particular.
  13. Brexit: The fallout

    A Canada style deal will not apply to NI. Simple as that really. NI will remain in the customs union and single market.
  14. Brexit: The fallout

    Johnson's sister has publicly supported Jo Johnson over his resignation in putting his country before his political career. A clear jab at her other idiot brother.