Hutcho

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Posts posted by Hutcho


  1. That isn't a Wertstoffhof, it's a sewage treatment plant.  It doesn't really affect anyone in Freimann, it's more just this small Siedlung behind the Autobahn wall, which is probably one of the only places in Munich you could get a big house with a garden for 2500 euros a month.

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  2. This place is 30 years old and is in a public transport black hole, it certainly isn't worth 1.5 million to 2 million euros.  Unfortunately nothing selling right in that area now, but here's one not far away selling for a million with similar specs. 

     

    So I suspect this place is only worth half to two thirds of the amount you were mentioning, which is reflected in the rent.

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  3. 21 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

    First, my house is not in Freimann.

     

    Second, these things go out in 24h! In my case, I got an immediate email notification and I replied with all paperwork within 30 minutes. I saw the house the very next day. By then, the guy had already taken out the advertisement because he already had enough interested people.

    As I was the first and he liked us, we got it.

     

    So today you see nothing, but maybe tomorrow one or two properties show up, but very briefly.


    Your profile says Freimann, so I picked that, but feel free to show us a few new built houses with garden, close to the U-Bahn in Munich worth between 1.5 and 2 million euros that is renting for 2500 euros a month.

    I've provided you concrete examples of how this is not the case.

    Until you provide some proof instead of simply excuses, I'll stick by my opinion that it is you that doesn't understand the Munich real estate market, not the rest of us.

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  4. 26 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

    Whose rent went down in 2008? Ours sure didn't nor did we lower the rent on our rental property.

     

    House prices here also didn't go down in 2008.  I specifically said this happened in other parts of the world.

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  5. 11 minutes ago, Eric7 said:

     

    The house price doesn't really interest him, he's in it for the rental income.

    Even if the house prices crash, rents aren't going to suddenly fall through the floor.

    The only risk is when it comes to the time where the fixed interest finishes. If interest rates have exploded then there could be trouble.

     

    If house prices cut in half, rent prices will not be far behind.  Again, unlikely, but this is exactly what happened in plenty of places around the world during the 2008 crash.

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  6. 23 minutes ago, Eric7 said:

    He has a return of €14,450 per year on his investment of €100,000 = Rendite of 14.45%

     

    The €14,450 per year either is invested in Tilgung or is building towards the next purchase.

     

    It's not really a 14% return though, because he is taking on a lot of risk.  If things go well, he multiplies his win, but if things go bad, he gets really screwed.  If conditions go back to how they were 10 years ago, the house price could be cut in half.  It's of course unlikely, but if that happens not only does he lose all of his 100k, but owes the bank another half a million as well.

     

    He's basically like the guy that goes to the casino and places a $1 chip on every number except number 1 on the roulette board.  He'll win almost all of the time, but the one time in 35 that it lands on that 1, it wipes him out completely.

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  7. 18 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

    You are not that knowledgeable of the market. Took me 7 months to find this place, but they exist.

    Interestingly, on the same neighborhood we visited 3 other houses with similar area and prices, so it is not that uncommon.

     

    Please prove otherwise then.

     

    Currently there is only a single house in Freimann for rent - it costs 3100 euros cold, and was built in 1988, so it's certainly not new and the U-Bahn is still 2km away!

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  8. 1 hour ago, Smaug said:

     

    I wouldn't say "easily". I know of cases in which it was "easy", but I also know of cases in which the tenants decided to fight and it was anything but easy. You also have to consider that Eigennutzung is not an absolute right. In cases of tenants who would find it very difficult to find alternative accommodation or could suffer significant hardship from moving because of old age, limited income, disability, etc. the rights of the tenant to adequate accommodation trump the right of the owner to Eigennutzung. I presume that court decisions that  considered Eigennutzung inadmissible were influenced by, or maybe based on, this paragraph in Article 14 of the German constitution:

     

    Just another reason I think you'd be crazy to be a landlord in Munich or Germany for that matter.

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  9. 10 hours ago, lisa13 said:

    I have a neighbor whose apartment has been stone cold empty for 2 years as he wants to be sure it's always available for his kids to live in should the need arise.  It's paid off but he's still losing money on the hauskosten + utilities + random unexpected repairs (of which there have been several recently).  Idiotic? Maybe.

     

     

    It is indeed pretty idiotic because one way to easily kick renters out is to claim "Eigennutzung", which would be completely valid if your kids wanted to move in.

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  10. Rates for 20 years are currently around 1.2% if you put 30% down or 1.7% if you put nothing down (taken from interhyp.de).

     

    So if you put nothing down, your interest payments would be 2125 euros a month, and if you put 450k (30%) down, your interest payments would be 1050 euros a month.

     

    Even at 2125 euros, it's cheaper than renting (rent on a 1.5 million euro house would be close to 3000 euros a month given the example I showed before).  Of course, there are maintenance costs, extra fees when buying etc which probably make it fairly similar in the end, assuming house prices don't go up further.

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  11. 3 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

    Please show your math, maybe I did something wrong. 

     

    I'm not sure what you want me to show here.  In the post I gave two links to immoscout24 which showed basically the same apartment in the same location, one for sale for a million, and one for rent for 2k a month.  That is a fair representation of the current market.

    I'm glad you're getting such a great deal on your place, but that doesn't really mean anything.  Fact is, you can pay 2k a month right now in rent for a place you could get for another 2k a month with a 1.5% interest loan locked in for 30 years with 1% Tilgung on a million euros.  There isn't much in it.

    Of course, there are advantages and disadvantages to both, and I'm not advocating either.  One thing I would advocate is not being a landlord under the current conditions.  You'll get a shitty return and likely get screwed by your tenants because of their rights, which are only getting stronger (get ready for even tougher rent caps, which will only make this whole problem worse).  You can get a 2% return that is a lot less hassle in plenty of other places, and I don't see the house prices going up significantly so you're probably out of luck there (of course, I could be wrong, but that's how I see it right now).

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  12. I'm not advocating renting or buying.  At the moment, rent is far more reasonable than the prices of houses.  But your maths above are certainly skewed.  I don't know what amazing deal you're on, but it's not normal. 

     

    An 90sqm apartment in a good location in Munich would cost around a million, and would rent for 2k a month. Given the low interest rates, your repayments vs rent are not going to be that much different in most cases now.  Whether you want to take the negatives you mention regarding buying (or the positives that might also come from it, like they have in the last decade) is up to you.



     

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  13. I agree 100%.  I'm actually not suggesting that stocks, houses or anything else is a good investment.  What I'm arguing against here are people saying that one way is right or wrong.  The example I gave was merely a rebuttal to lisa13 who was suggesting that buying a million euro house that you could never pay back makes no sense: it can indeed make a lot of sense - or it can destroy you.

     

    But just saving money in the bank, especially at current negative interest rates and in times of quantitative easing is almost certainly not the right idea.

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  14. 25 minutes ago, lisa13 said:

     

    she was diversified, by the way.  the whole thing just went to absolute shit at the worst time for her. 


    It of course sucks if this happens, but if most of your retirement savings are in an investment (as they should be), you start to draw parts of it out a few years before you retire to ensure you can live, so that when it tanks you're not stuck in a hard place.

    Sure, you might need to draw out money at a bad time.  But has she rebalanced in the 2000's and kept the money in there, she'd have quadrupled her money by now.

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  15. 34 minutes ago, mtbiking said:

    Betting against the ability of Germans and the German state to solve problems and keep on having one of the most successful societies on earth is underestimating them.

     

     

    What happened in the past is absolutely no indicator of what will happen in the future.  If you're putting your financial security solely in the hands of the German state, I think you're asking for trouble.

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  16. 19 minutes ago, lisa13 said:

    I think you are overly optimistic about the safety of this imaginary money you think you have ;)

     

     

     

    Money in the bank is much more imaginary than holding stock or property.  Look what is happening in Venezuela now, and what happened in Germany during the depression, and indeed what they're doing now with quantitative easing.  Cash in the bank, especially at negative interest rates, is your least safe option at the moment.

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  17. 29 minutes ago, lisa13 said:

     

    my general rule of thumb is I never put myself on the hook for living costs that exceed what I could pay if I were living on unemployment, and that rule has served me quite well thus far.  Sounds great that you can buy a 1million euro home and only pay 1k per month IN INTEREST plus a low tilung - can you not see how nuts that is?  at that rate you'll never own it and it's not just a matter of moving out if you run into financial troubles for whatever reason.  I view that as a prison of one's own making - who needs that kind of stress?

     

    You say it's nuts to buy a house for a million that you could never pay off, but had you done it 10 years ago, your house would now be worth 3 million euros, so if you run into financial troubles you could sell it, pay off your loan and still have 2 million euros in the bank and you'd have lived 10 years in a really nice house rather than a small shitty apartment.  Sounds like a good deal to me.

    Living conservatively in the way you suggest, with basically cash under the mattress, is really not so smart, just like cashing out your pension during the dotcom crash.  It's not as straight forward as you make it out to be, and it is necessary to take some risk if you want to get ahead.

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  18. 37 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

    In which planet do you live?? The Tesla costed 55k, the downpayment for the house I'm living is 400.000€!!!

     

    You can get 100% loans.  On a 1.000.000€ loan at 1% interest you would pay under 1000 euro a month in interest.

     

    37 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

     

    I can retire at the age of 50 if I keep saving. Not very comfortable, but enough. I do own a house, in a place where houses are cheap, in a very nice town near the ocean in Portugal. But buying in Munich is just stupid. Sure, you invested in 1998, good for you. Luck's about to run out. And that's the point!

     

    That's a pretty bold statement.  If you invested 5 years ago it certainly wasn't stupid (10 or 15 years ago even less stupid), and we'll have to wait another 5 years to see if you're correct, but I can't imagine that the housing market will do significantly worse than the stock market, which is certainly due for a correction soon.

     

    Unfortunately I can't see prices going down unless Munich itself takes a massive turn for the worst which would be bad for us all, and much worse than simply high housing prices.  It might happen with the automated driving revolution that will hit us soon, that will likely be dominated by American tech companies not traditional automakers which could hit a significant part of the industry in Munich.  But like I say, the decline of Audi/BMW/VW is not something we should excite ourselves about.

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  19. The leverage you got by earning a profit on a loan was certainly advantageous in this case, but it also involves higher risk.  If your house value halved and you had a 90% loan, you'd owe the bank money.  You might think this sounds unrealistic, but it's exactly what happened in the US in 2008 to thousands of people who ended up going bankrupt (along with banks because of their risky loans) because their house was worth much less than their loan.

     

    You can also leverage in the stock market like this, if you're willing to take the bigger loss.

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  20. 42 minutes ago, Krieg said:

    I remember some "experts" here throwing numbers and "proving" how renting was financially much better than owning some years ago when we bought our house.   Now here we are, our house has almost doubled in price, it is almost paid, our current mortgage monthly payment would allow you to rent a 1 bedroom apartment.  Luckily we never listened to the "experts".  Of course those experts are never wrong, so nowadays they say that if we had invested that money in whatever magic investments they do we could have done much better.

     

    Had you invested in the stock market at that time, your money would have doubled as well.  Had you invested in property in 2000 and sold in 2010, you'd have made no profit and you'd have been better off renting.

    Of course no one can predict the economic future.  Even Warren Buffet admits that someone investing regularly into solid Dow Jones/S&P 100 companies will beat most experts.

    You got lucky, you should be happy with that.  It still doesn't mean property is always a good investment, and that renting is a bad one which I believe is what triggered the discussion you're talking about.

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  21. The fact that interest rates just got lowered again (to -0.5%) doesn't help the situation either.

    Until they go back up again, and they relax building regulations/open up more land for development and people stop coming to Munich, the prices probably won't come down.  I just can't imagine that they'll go up any further, otherwise Munich will have the most expensive purchase prices in the entire world (even though rents are no where near close to the most expensive and are quite reasonable in comparison, another thing that makes the situation somewhat concerning), but I said this 5 years ago too, so could very well be wrong again.

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  22. 1 hour ago, CryptoAndBeyond said:

    In a very good area.

    1 hour ago, CryptoAndBeyond said:

    It is in Aschheim.

     

    When you say "very good area" people think Altstadt/Schwabing.  Aschheim isn't even in Munich.  That's not to say it's a bad area, but 500k for an older 90sqm apartment there seems about right.

     

    No one can tell you whether it will be a good investment or not.  Prices have typically gone up but there is no question that prices have never been higher and experts say that Munich is the biggest property bubble risk in Europe, which makes sense as the prices really are out of control here given the wages and the general situation of Munich, which is not some big city like London or Paris  even though whose prices are not that far off those cities.

     

    That said, interest rates are super low and you can lock them in here for a long time, so as long as you are happy with the repayments and you intend to stay for a long while, I don't think you have too much to worry about.  If you intend to leave in a couple of years, I would definitely be wary.

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  23. You are not allowed:

     

    "Entgegen dem weit verbreiteten Mythos, dass für Rennradfahrer eine Ausnahmeregelung gilt, sind auch sie gemäß StVO verpflichtet, Radwege zu nutzen"

     

    You shouldn't have to go up and down curbs when using the bike lanes.  Plenty of people ride bikes with thin, high pressure tyres on bike lanes in Munich.  Maybe you just had bad luck. 

     

     

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  24. Three days of shit weather and you're crying?

     

    I'd hate to see you in a normal summer where it might rain 2 weeks out of every month.  This summer has been excellent.  It could rain from now until the end of summer and it would still be up there as one of the best.  

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