Hutcho

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About Hutcho

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  • Location Munich
  • Nationality Australian
  • Gender Male
  1. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    That isn't a Wertstoffhof, it's a sewage treatment plant.  It doesn't really affect anyone in Freimann, it's more just this small Siedlung behind the Autobahn wall, which is probably one of the only places in Munich you could get a big house with a garden for 2500 euros a month.
  2. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    I'm not sure what Wertstoffhof you're talking about. Freimann is very well connected if you're near the U-Bahn, but all the places closer to the Englischer Garten are quite a way away from it.
  3. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    This place is 30 years old and is in a public transport black hole, it certainly isn't worth 1.5 million to 2 million euros.  Unfortunately nothing selling right in that area now, but here's one not far away selling for a million with similar specs.    So I suspect this place is only worth half to two thirds of the amount you were mentioning, which is reflected in the rent.
  4. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    Your profile says Freimann, so I picked that, but feel free to show us a few new built houses with garden, close to the U-Bahn in Munich worth between 1.5 and 2 million euros that is renting for 2500 euros a month. I've provided you concrete examples of how this is not the case. Until you provide some proof instead of simply excuses, I'll stick by my opinion that it is you that doesn't understand the Munich real estate market, not the rest of us.
  5. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      House prices here also didn't go down in 2008.  I specifically said this happened in other parts of the world.
  6. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      If house prices cut in half, rent prices will not be far behind.  Again, unlikely, but this is exactly what happened in plenty of places around the world during the 2008 crash.
  7. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      It's not really a 14% return though, because he is taking on a lot of risk.  If things go well, he multiplies his win, but if things go bad, he gets really screwed.  If conditions go back to how they were 10 years ago, the house price could be cut in half.  It's of course unlikely, but if that happens not only does he lose all of his 100k, but owes the bank another half a million as well.   He's basically like the guy that goes to the casino and places a $1 chip on every number except number 1 on the roulette board.  He'll win almost all of the time, but the one time in 35 that it lands on that 1, it wipes him out completely.
  8. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      Please prove otherwise then.   Currently there is only a single house in Freimann for rent - it costs 3100 euros cold, and was built in 1988, so it's certainly not new and the U-Bahn is still 2km away!
  9. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      Just another reason I think you'd be crazy to be a landlord in Munich or Germany for that matter.
  10. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      It is indeed pretty idiotic because one way to easily kick renters out is to claim "Eigennutzung", which would be completely valid if your kids wanted to move in.
  11. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    Rates for 20 years are currently around 1.2% if you put 30% down or 1.7% if you put nothing down (taken from interhyp.de).   So if you put nothing down, your interest payments would be 2125 euros a month, and if you put 450k (30%) down, your interest payments would be 1050 euros a month.   Even at 2125 euros, it's cheaper than renting (rent on a 1.5 million euro house would be close to 3000 euros a month given the example I showed before).  Of course, there are maintenance costs, extra fees when buying etc which probably make it fairly similar in the end, assuming house prices don't go up further.
  12. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      I'm not sure what you want me to show here.  In the post I gave two links to immoscout24 which showed basically the same apartment in the same location, one for sale for a million, and one for rent for 2k a month.  That is a fair representation of the current market. I'm glad you're getting such a great deal on your place, but that doesn't really mean anything.  Fact is, you can pay 2k a month right now in rent for a place you could get for another 2k a month with a 1.5% interest loan locked in for 30 years with 1% Tilgung on a million euros.  There isn't much in it. Of course, there are advantages and disadvantages to both, and I'm not advocating either.  One thing I would advocate is not being a landlord under the current conditions.  You'll get a shitty return and likely get screwed by your tenants because of their rights, which are only getting stronger (get ready for even tougher rent caps, which will only make this whole problem worse).  You can get a 2% return that is a lot less hassle in plenty of other places, and I don't see the house prices going up significantly so you're probably out of luck there (of course, I could be wrong, but that's how I see it right now).
  13. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    I'm not advocating renting or buying.  At the moment, rent is far more reasonable than the prices of houses.  But your maths above are certainly skewed.  I don't know what amazing deal you're on, but it's not normal.    An 90sqm apartment in a good location in Munich would cost around a million, and would rent for 2k a month. Given the low interest rates, your repayments vs rent are not going to be that much different in most cases now.  Whether you want to take the negatives you mention regarding buying (or the positives that might also come from it, like they have in the last decade) is up to you.  
  14. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    I agree 100%.  I'm actually not suggesting that stocks, houses or anything else is a good investment.  What I'm arguing against here are people saying that one way is right or wrong.  The example I gave was merely a rebuttal to lisa13 who was suggesting that buying a million euro house that you could never pay back makes no sense: it can indeed make a lot of sense - or it can destroy you.   But just saving money in the bank, especially at current negative interest rates and in times of quantitative easing is almost certainly not the right idea.
  15. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    It of course sucks if this happens, but if most of your retirement savings are in an investment (as they should be), you start to draw parts of it out a few years before you retire to ensure you can live, so that when it tanks you're not stuck in a hard place. Sure, you might need to draw out money at a bad time.  But has she rebalanced in the 2000's and kept the money in there, she'd have quadrupled her money by now.