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About MikeMelga

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  • Location Freimann, Munich
  • Nationality Portuguese
  • Hometown Porto, Portugal
  • Gender Male
  • Year of birth
  1. Coronavirus

    Where do you see that? Most death growth (155) was in Lombardia. That alone justifies today's numbers. Lazio had 12 deaths today. North west area justifies the increase from yesterday, all other regions are at same level. Yesterday when I last checked there was one of the NW region (Piedmont, I think) that hadn't reported deaths yet. Perhaps they reported only today, showing less yesterday and more today. The amount were 50. I still think this is an artifact that will be smoothed in the next few days. If I'm wrong, I don't see an end to this.   In the meantime, in the last 3 days in spain there was somehow a slowdown, although not very evident.
  2. Coronavirus

    Let's not judge from a single day, this could be a statistic artifact like Saturday. I've already said a few days ago that the peak could still be a few days ago, but that we were very near.
  3. Coronavirus

    Here is some interesting comparison between a few countries I'm tracking. Spain started with a very fast growth, now it is stabilizing but still much worst situation than Italy. Germany is managing it better than the others, but not that far from Italy.My guess is that initial spreading was among younger people and now it is reaching the older ones. Portugal is getting a bit scary, but the second week is only half way through, so I would not read much from it.
  4. Coronavirus

    It might also bring vaping under control.
  5. Coronavirus

    Thanks! Thats a lot of data to clean up... maybe I can do it on the weekend if numbers don't start going down. A quick look reveals: South and center are pretty much clean Seems some regions haven't reported data yet for today, or someone forgot to update the table Lombardia still is by far the worst area, with more than 50% of deaths. Lombardia and Emillia Romana, the 2 worst, seems to have peaked already A quick look does not show a big risk for the south and center.
  6. Coronavirus

    662 deaths in Italy today. Definitely we are at the peak. Not enough data to simulate when it drops to meaningless, seems between 3-10 days from now. We could still remain longer in a plateau, or even have a slight rise, if for example cases spread to the south of the country. I would need regional data to analyse individual curves in detail.
  7. I though that only executive positions lacked protection. Middle or junior managers should be treated as other employees.
  8. Or buy ETFs, it will do that for you.
  9. Coronavirus

    Problem is that part of his base are old people. At some point people will start dying in big numbers and after a few weeks of desperation, they might leave him.   Today's Italy data just shows we are at the peak or within 1-2 days. Daily deaths should be going down to meaningless in 5-12 days, but I need a few downward points to get more accurate. If we take the worst case (12 days), this means a lockdown can reduce deaths within 4 weeks. Unsure how many more weeks needed after that to reduce lockdown controls. Italy is showing that a complete lockdown works (in "x" weeks) and perhaps Germany can show that a partial lockdown works in a similar fashion.   German numbers are not so good, everybody is talking of some sort of miracle, but they are growing fast. Not as fast as Italy but still fast. In the 2 first weeks in Germany, deaths rose by 39% vs 48% in Italy. Germany's advantages is that it declared a partial lockdown before italy (relative to date of first death), it has more ventilators and it has Italy's experience to help.
  10. Coronavirus

    I think it has more to do with people having fear of losing their job with lockdown. As most of them cannot pay for healthcare if they are unemployed, losing job can be as risky as catching the virus.
  11. Coronavirus

    683 deaths in Italy today. Clearly we are at the peak or already passed it.
  12. Coronavirus

    Nah, look at my chart, we are either at the peak or within 2-3 days. You need to smooth the data to make daily artifacts gone.   I would be more concerned with Spain. I haven't plotted the data, but I think it will peak much higher than Italy.
  13. Coronavirus

    Going back on current news, Italy reported 743 deaths today. Although it is an increase over yesterday, it is lower than Saturday and definitely NOT exponential growth any longer.   In the next graph I show a polynomial fit for "all time" and on the left for the past 2 weeks. The "all time" fit shows peak within the next 2-3 days, while the past 2 weeks shows we are already at the peak. Graph data is smoothed for better polynomial fit.   But either we have a strong reduction soon, or total deaths will still be above 20.000.
  14. Coronavirus

    Yes, but my advice to her was simple: don´t give the boss the information about cancer, because he could dismiss it, as previous cancer per se is in most cases not a valid reason.
  15. Coronavirus

    1) it was not a made up story, it was actually a relative. If you knew me in person you would know I don't make up stuff, quite the opposite, I will hammer you down with facts until you agree with me. 2) I can tell so many true stories of idiotic engineers that you wouldn't believe. Titles mean nothing to me, and I'm an engineer.