arsenal21

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Posts posted by arsenal21

  1. Posted

    6 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

    Uninformed people like you would think so. The 2B stock issued was actually seen as quite positive.

     

    Issuing stock dilutes existing shareholders and rational market theory says the share price should drop, so logically this is not a rational market.

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  6. Posted

    On 2/4/2020, 7:37:11, Cherryalessia said:

    So I am unemployed after my one year contract has not been renewed. I live a few km north of Petershausen, so outside Munich, but still within a reasonable distance from the city.
    Today I had myregular apppointment with the Arbeitsamt, and yes, I did expect that they bring up the Massnahmen. But apparently, I need to do this Mssnahmen 4 times per week, for 8 hours per day. This means Monday to Thursday from 8:30 to 16:00 I need to be in some course and make sure I apply to jobs. 
    I feel this is complete bs. There is no way one can apply to jobs 8 hours per day. And I am sure I will go there and they will waste my time with more bs, and in the end I will come home, exhaused, and then I will have to apply to josb some more. 
    FML

    cherryA

    It's been a while since I've been unemployed but on ALG I, the Arbeitsamt would pay for travel expenses to go to interviews, so I had a few nice day trips on the ICE on their coin.

     

    Lisa is right, each of the guys in the office just have a list of unemployed people and they have to try to get names off their list, they don't really care what you do.

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  9. Posted

    When you're married afaik the usual choice is between both paying at tax class 4 or 1 partner taking class 3 and the other 5. The latter option is advantageous if only one partner is working, as the working partner gets a larger tax free allowance.

     

    My guess is the default change would be to put both in class 4, unless otherwise notified.

     

    I am not a tax advisor or lawyer and my info might be outdated as it was over 10 years ago I got married.

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  10. Posted

    12 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

    Apple is the 3rd larger smartphone manufacturer in the world, and a year ago was #2. How is that niche???

    And I´m talking in number of units, not revenue! In revenue is probably still #2.

    39 minutes ago, catjones said:

     

     

    Apple was very much a niche company - before the ipod and iphone Apple had about 4% of the computer/operating system market.

     

    Maybe a better example  would be Nokia.

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  12. Posted

    1 hour ago, Keleth said:

    I`m not to sure about this.

    It`s going to take something special to shift the major manufacturers mindset to moving most of the production to EVs (which will happen eventually) whereas Tesla is there already and it`s often more efficient to start with new machinery etc than it is to try and convert the old stuff which the major manufacturers try to do all the time.Until recently  Porsche actually made very few parts of their cars but rather designed them and ordered the parts from outside companies and then Porsche would put them together.Never truly believe a Made in Germany stamp on a Porsche.

    It could be that Tesla decides to be a niche brand and not worry about the lower end of the market.

    I also wonder if Musk will get bored with Tesla once EVs become standard because they won`t then be seen as something special and Musk seems to be one who likes his ego being stroked.

    I get the feeling if Tesla became "corporate" in such a way Musk would be forced out anyway.

     

    10 hours ago, Krieg said:

     

    You're right, the big manufacturers are only slowlyy moving to EVs and Tesla has first mover advantage, BUT it doesn't have scale so it won't be able to beat the big companies on price once they get their fingers out

     

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  13. Posted

    7 hours ago, Krieg said:

    Seat has announced the Mii Electric, the electric version of their small city car which is basically the same as the VW Up and the Skoda Citigo.   The good thing is its price, 20000€ with a range of 265 km and a max speed of 130 km/h.   The VW and Skoda versions will follow later on.   While I still think it is still a bit too expensive for what it is, we are getting there.   The interior is way too basic, and the idea of not having any screen or entertainment system and just letting you connect your own smartphone to the car is clever but I still have the feeling we are losing.

     

    I think we are not that far from truly affordable electric cars that will finally disrupt the market, maybe closer than I thought.  And contrary to @MikeMelga's believe, I don't think Tesla will be the big winner of the battle even with their advantage in technology and I don't believe either than traditional car makers will be the big losers.  I think most traditional car makers will transition and succeed and Tesla will become the Apple of EVs, just a high-end brand with slightly better technology and higher prices and no products in the low bracket.  Just a niche brand.

    12/1/2019, 11:13:27, MikeMelga said:

     

    I think you're right with the Apple of EVs analogy. However, auto manufacturers need scale more than tech companies - if you think of the smaller car brands, they usually belong to giants like VW or GM.

     

    Also I don't see Musk as a corporate type, able to run a global concern, he's more of a freewheeling entrepreneur, which leads me to believe that he'll be looking for an exit sooner rather than later (anyone remember 'funding secured'?), and there may be some parts of his technology stack that the majors are interested in, so a trade sale seems like a win-win

     

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  15. Posted

    4 hours ago, catjones said:

     

    Perhaps he meant "cash infusion" or just plain "cash".

    4 hours ago, catjones said:

     

    Perhaps he meant "cash infusion" or just plain "cash".

     

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-03/tesla-raises-2-35-billion-in-boosted-debt-stock-offerings-jv82k0mf

    Even so, Tesla has about 5 billion in cash, which covers about 3 months of outgoings and almost half of that was from debt raised earlier this year.

     

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  16. Posted

    They're widgets to add gas afaik to the beer as the can is opened. Guinness uses nitrogen rather than carbon dioxide to give its fizz, hence smaller bubbles and the delicious thick creamy head.

     

    If in Germany you have a can you have paid a 25 cent deposit on it, I'd guess that's more than the value of the aluminium.

    2

  17. Posted

     

     

     

    19 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

    They have enough cash flow for several years, they are having some profitable quarters despite the huge growth (CAPEX), they have no demand problem, they have a lead of 5-7 years in technology to the competitors and you still buy this FUD crap?

     

    That makes me wonder what you think will be the exit strategy of BMW... will they merge with Mercedes or just go bankrupt?

    Really, BMW and Fiat are more likely to go bankrupt than Tesla! Either BMW starts putting out some credible EV models quickly or they are gone in 5-10 years.

     

    https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/10/tesla-model-3-outsold-bmw-mercedes-audi-lexus-competitors-in-2nd-quarter-in-usa-by-a-landslide/

     

    https://www.businessinsider.de/tesla-should-scare-bmw-model-3-survey-2019-11?r=US&IR=T

     

    Tesla do not have 'enough cash flow for several years'. Musk is talking about Tesla being cash flow positive in 2020. Their last financial statements showed an operating loss, which means on aggregate they lose money on every car they sell.

     

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/hershshefrin/2019/07/27/pay-attention-to-elon-musks-statements-about-teslas-free-cash-flow/

     

    They only made a profit because of some ill-understood currency movements (or so analysts infer).

     

    Also capex has no effect on profitability, leading me to suspect you know much more about technology than accounting.

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  18. Posted

    11 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

    No, they will most likely supply power train and batteries for a German car manufacturer. My bet is Mercedes.

    They´ve stated in the previous earnings call that they are willing to do it as soon as they have overcapacity. AFAIK, they already have overcapacity on powertrain.

    It could also be a mega deal with Fiat, as Fiat is clearly lost in this EV thing.

    VW has just clarified it is not looking for such a deal, although everything is possible.

    BMW and Audi is highly doubtful as both companies  administrations are full of assholes who think they are the best.

     

    I thought Panasonic makes the batteries for Teslas:

     

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-needs-its-battery-maker-a-culture-clash-threatens-their-relationship-11570550526

     

    So why would VW or BMW choose Tesla as a battery supplier who doesn't even make batteries for Teslas?

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  20. Posted

    3 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

    Oh boy,  Tesla just revealed the Cybertruck and the thing is... UGLY AS HELL :/

    I know trucks are supposed to be ugly, but this is beyond ugly!

    https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/21/behold-the-tesla-cybertruck-is-here/

     

    Worst, they managed to "Bill Gates" the presentation by having not a blue screen, but a broken window!

    Ouch!

     

    I would not be surprised if the broken window was deliberate as it makes all the media channels.

     

    If anyone has remembers Wheels by Arthur Hailey, they were talking about deliberately introducing ugly cars at the end of the novel, maybe that's how the Tesla board meeting went.

     

    I think, yes, it's ugly in a way, but also it has straight lines which you don't see so much in modern cars.

     

    I think there will be a market for it though - hipster yuppies who secretly want a pickup truck but would not be seen dead driving one. May be a niche market but Tesla is a niche brand and will probably remain so.

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  23. Posted

    12 hours ago, El Jeffo said:

    That's just Muskian propaganda. They may be able to throw up a factory in a year in China, where no one cares about labor rights, industrial safety, or the environment, but you just know they're going to find a family of rare frogs or endangered birds when they start clear-cutting the forest on the designated factory site.

     

    Just a reminder: over 100 workers were killed during the construction of the new Beijing airport. Imagine that in Germany.

     

    I predict the first cars won't roll off the assembly lines until at least 2023.

     

    If the factory gets built at all, seeing how Musk often over-promises and under-delivers (boring machine, funding secured, solar tiles, insurance etc.)

     

    Tesla put an assembly line in a tent in California this year to ramp up production, I can't imagine them being allowed to do that in Germany. So their costs will be higher in Germany than in the US.

     

    Also VW have started ramping up production of their electric cars and they will probably be able to make a profit from their cars, which Tesla haven't managed to do yet. Also VW, BMW all have dealership networks and certified service, finance etc. they will be able to leverage.

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  24. Posted

    On 11/17/2019, 11:21:32, Aussiedog said:

     

    Well, I can relate - sort of - I think.

     

    I have a similar reaction when I see or meet (often young) Germans who have been to Australia and who have presumably travelled around a bit and learnt something about the Aborigines and their culture. It bothers me when, for example,  I see and hear these kinds of people going on and on about the beauty and sacredness of Aboriginal culture...

    ...and I can't quite put my finger on why it irks me...

    ...and typiically, they have acquired a didgeredoo and are learning to play it...

    and I know I'm not being very coherent (and I'm not even half-pissed)...but this kind of thing does bother me...

    ...and I do somehow get what you're on about.

     

    There's a term for it, cultural appropriation.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_appropriation

     

    The OP is from Green Bay where football is central to people's cultural identity, so when he hears Germans talking about it, maybe he feels like the Native American seeing the college student wearing a feathers as a fashion accessory.

     

    For me, it's the Kelly family, as what they do is bowdlerize Irish culture and sell it as if authentic.

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