mtbiking

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Everything posted by mtbiking

  1. Money I know I’ll need in less than two years I’d never invest, unless in amounts I  know I’ll be able to recoup in time or if you are flexible to postpone or cancel the purchase. Even if no major crisis  hits in the meantime, you’ll be jumping at shadows.
  2. Finding a truly quiet apartment around Munich

    S7 to the south? Try an area adjacent to a park or forest in Ottobrunn or Neubiberg. Much quieter than Munich and no farm noises, and you still have every you may need close by - no car necessary. It’s not cheaper than Munich, though. 
  3. Berlin to get a Tesla Gigafactory

    Some people have too much time in their hands. Besides in Germany there are (of course) laws regulating how a private individual or company has to compensate the cutting down of a tree or forest by replanting the equivalent. 
  4. Berlin to get a Tesla Gigafactory

      not anymore. Nowadays for new installations you get paid a measly 9ct KWh. It makes sense you consume as much as you can and gat a battery of adequate size. We had an energy advisor visiting (the Amt pays most of the cost) and his recommendation was to cover the roof, buy a small battery for the house and a big battery in the form of an electric car. Selling doesn’t pay off in Germany at 9 ct when you buy at almost 30 ct.
  5. Berlin to get a Tesla Gigafactory

    the price of food at a normal restaurant is limited by the fact that you can cheaply cook it at home, though. It would be far higher otherwise in our wonderful capitalist societies. Drinkable beer at home on the other hand is already too much of a challenge for me 😒   what Germany can easily do is tax the electricity you produce for your own use. They already do it (tax your own usage) if you’re selling the remaining into the net.
  6.   Yeah, as it happens I’m currently transferring my portfolio to Onvista from Flatex. And I know I’m not the only one. Bye bye losers.   It sucks Onvista won’t take you. According to the last available data from Test.de (2019) the second best option you have now is DKB. For their example of large portfolio €150,000, 15 positions and 4 orders per year the cost is €74 for DKB (€28 for Onvista).  
  7. real estate

      Growth hasn't until recently been detached from reality, or it was but the other way around. In Germany prices were depressed for at least a decade and very few other than locals and professionals were buying even with ever higher available income (it wasn't fashionable or a hot market -> herd behaviour). As a result there was no fall in prices to be had when the global crisis hit in 2005-2008, and the correction (upwards) came with the global recovery plus cheap money.  Now the herd has been buying whatever crap is to be found in Germany and driving the prices ever higher. It has all been seen before, but my point is that prices won't fall to what they were in 2010.   for the young and the ones with a short attention span:   https://www.theguardian.com/money/2011/mar/19/brits-buy-germans-rent *   *Note that their example of a possible purchase wasn't well chosen. €400,000 bought you a small but nice DHH or RMH in somewhere like Ramersforf or Giesing in 2010, or a nice 80-90 sqm apartment in Bogenhausen. Enough for a family. I still have my old Datasheet as proof.    
  8. real estate

    And another one to put things a bit in an international perspective.    
  9. real estate

    Since it's a slow morning and I have all this data to play with (I love German efficiency), here's another correlation:          
  10. real estate

      I've just plotted for us the Real Estate Index for Munich, 1975-2018.  That stagnation between 1995-2010? That's the reason why I bought in 2010 - it was cheap back then. People were renting because of flexiblity, tradition, high initial costs, whatever. One argument that you can still find in TT was: the prices are stagnant since 20 years, it's a lousy investment. In Germany you rent. This in one of the wealthiest and most attractive to live in major cities in the World. We were due for a price correction.   Now, I'm of the opinion that the price correction has overheated and that the prices will swing down. But it will take a lot of economic damage to make real estate in München so cheap as it was in 2010, i.e in 1995.    
  11. real estate

      Lots of people don't want to buy in Munich or elsewhere for several reasons. This is as much true now as it was 10 or 20 years ago. Others are willing to risk it and invest their time and resources. That said, my Mietern are happy to rent from a a "small fish" private landlord instead of a big company.
  12. real estate

      Only half-true. You can get a SP500 ETF from an excellent company like Vanguard with 0.07% p.a. costs. €1000 k€ invested in it will only cost €700/year. For my purposes that's as good as free. There are even cheaper ETFs out there, but I like Vanguard.   An online Broker like Onvista will charge you €1,5 per transaction through a Sparplan, or €5-6 in a straightforward purchase independent of the values envolved. For comparison, you pay 8.5% in taxes, Makler and Notar when buying property in Munich. That's €85000 gone for the same 1000 k€ invested. And afterward you need to pay for the property's upkeep, those are costs you can't pass to your Mieter and can easily exceed €700/year.   Now, I like real estate and by consistently studying the market in Munich in the last 15 years I think we got some good deals. But I'm planning to sell sometime between retirement and never, which offsets the high initial costs and makes me somewhat indifferent to market fluctuations. However, if I wasn't so settled down in Munich and didn't have children I'd  have kept investing all my savings in stock and index fonds. And like Mikemelga I'm counting with a price correction before I'll want to buy anything else in Munich.
  13. real estate

    While I don't necessarily share Mikemelga's pessimism/optimist about the real estate in Munich imploding, you're being naively optimistic: - The prices will most likely not go up 7% per year for the next 10 years (which you need to meet your expectation of doubling your gains..), much more likely they'll stagnate or there'll be a price correction.  Whether 10%, 20% or more and whether the prices recover afterwards slowly or quickly nobody knows. However, for quick gains you're late to the party. - You'll rent the place. Rented Apartments are usually worth less than empty ones, and in 10 years the rental income will not be as high as an empty place would -> your apartment will be even less desirable - Your apartment will be 10 years older than now with the corresponding loss in value. - God help you if there are renovations to be done or you get a Mietnomad. From what you write you don't seem prepared for it.
  14. Expat Burnout

    We have to live with our own decisions. There are a handful of cities in Germany that offer the lifestyle you crave - in Bavaria that city is Munich, not Bamberg. So move here. You’ll very likely have no problems finding an equivalent job. You’ll obviously pay more rent, but that’s literally the price to pay - there’s no use in complaining about it either.
  15. What made you laugh today?

      Cybertruck's first Roadkill!
  16. Moving to Munich!

    The average salary in Munich is around €4300/Month. With no extra source of income, a wife and a child you'll feel like a poor sod with that income in Munich though. With around €80,000-€90,000+ a year it may be worth it, if it's a good career step for you. At least you'll have enough income for a proper place and still be able to afford Holidays. Beyond that or if your wife also works you'll be more than fine.
  17. Non payment from house sale

    You do have it regulated in the notarized contract what happens in case of non-payment, don’t you? I sincerely hope the answer is affirmative. In the properties I purchased, the buyer (me) was required to pay a significant penalty in case of non compliance, and the seller as well (compliance in that case meaning failure to vacant the house when agreed). I can’t imagine signing something so critical otherwise.   so, what exactly does your contract say?
  18. How much is enough for retirement?

    only the most unlucky - bitched slapped by fortune- SOB would have dumped all his load in the Japanese stock market shortly before the big crash of 89. Much more likely he would have spent years investing and enjoying the ridiculous growth rates before the abrupt return to earth.   If you account for this, it still looks bad for the hypothetical Japanese investor (should really have diversified) but not nearly as bad.
  19. How much is enough for retirement?

    by the way, “trusted” and “fund manager” should almost never be used in the same phrase, the exception being “he can be trusted to get rich at your expense”.
  20. How much is enough for retirement?

    you see, there are so many ways to refute this crazy statement, that’s hardly worth the bother. But anyway: - a household with a net worth of “merely” €900,000 (including property) already belongs to the top 5% wealthiest in Germany. Source: Bundesbank https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/794130/d523cb34074622e1b4cfa729f12a1276/mL/2019-04-vermoegensbefragung-data.pdf   - €10 Million invested would, at a measly 3% per year, generate a mere €25,000 income per month of passive income. In reality more. To define rich as only beyond this point is, well, crazy.  A fifth of this and a paid off home is enough for a family to live quite well and never have to work again in their lives, even in Munich. So even by a far more stringent definition of rich than the Bundesbank €2,000,000 in liquid assets is still plenty of rich in Germany.
  21. How much is enough for retirement?

    That’s crazy.
  22. What made you laugh today?

    Saw this today on my way to bring the kids to kindergarten, somehow found it brilliant.
  23. Riester Rente vs. other pension schemes

    I’ve done the math for fairriester some years ago, it looked and still looks like a turd, even though worse turds do exist. I recommend you do the same, as PandaMunich pointed out you can use their own numbers for the comparison with a low fee, whole market index fond.
  24. Riester Rente vs. other pension schemes

    There are several German online banks offering cheap depots for private investors with a wide variety of index fonds on offer. The cheapest and currently best classified by the Finanztest Zeitung is Onvista. 
  25. Riester Rente vs. other pension schemes

    Closing costs, management costs and a miserable investment strategy that minimizes risk at the expense of growth (imposed by the German government, which seems to have as singular goal that the productive citizens work as long as possible, rent all their lives and then die poor) means that after 30 years you’ll very probably have a lot less money than if you invest your €1625 in a low fee world index ETF (vanguard FTSE world or ishares MSCI world, for example), which you can sell at anytime besides and will also pay you dividends from day one, tax free up to €1600/year. You’re welcome.