mtbiking

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Everything posted by mtbiking

  1. Buying property in Germany

    If you’re asking me in April 2020 how come a family with small children has a better quality of life in a house with garden than in a two rooms apartment then I wonder if we’re even living on the same planet.
  2. Buying property in Germany

    That’s irrelevant to his point and this discussion, since his €750/month place can be bought for much less than a million euro. Such a place is valued at roughly around €370,000, which at nowadays interest rate is not beyond reach for loads of people. Nobody is forcing anyone to buy a house.
  3. Buying property in Germany

    that doesn’t make any sense. If you’re living in an apartment or small rowhouse you’re not having the same life quality as you’d have living in a €1000,000 house in the same street, as your home is obviously a factor in your life quality. You continue to wildly exaggerate the rental to purchase price ratio in order to make a point. Take MikeMelga, he’s renting by choice and makes basically the same arguments as you, but he doesn’t try to hide that his rent is high.
  4. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      That place is rented, not a good buy specially if you want to move in yourself. Besides, it's very far away from Rosenheim.
  5. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      You shouldn't buy a home without enough capital to either lower the amount of the loan or offer as collateral and the more the better. That said, with good conditions you can now finance 800k for 20 years fixed interest at around 1% rate, which means that with 2.5% tilgung you'd be paying €2370/ month, of which €700 is interest in month one.  For comparison, I was paying more interest than that for my €180,000 loan when I first bought in Munich.  A major burden is the circa €70,000 in fees.. That's money thrown away.   Nearing/above forty and with children is in most cases too late to get into real estate IMHO. By that stage people may as well be content with renting and possibly buy a small condo for their retirement if so desired.
  6. Buying property in Germany

      Please, please give examples of €1,000,000 with a €750 rent. I'm genuinely interested as all €1,000,000 houses I've ever encountered have rents of at least €2000/month. 
  7. Buying property in Germany

    We're in agreement there. In 10 or 20 years the stock price of 2020 will look very cheap, just like the stock of 2000 or 2010 looks now.
  8. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      Maybe he's honestly concerned? I guess it depends how often he asked. More than once or twice does show panic. I did ask my tenants if everything is OK, and I didn't do it out of being scared - I could perfectly stomach a few months with reduced or without rental income if they were in real trouble. 
  9. Buying property in Germany

      Berkshire Hathaway has been selling although it already has a formidable cash position. Warren and associates seem to think that people still aren’t fearful enough. 
  10. Buying property in Germany

    It certainly looked like it. But don’t worry, you aren’t. I can’t answer your first question without more info, though.
  11. Buying property in Germany

    Yawn. Unless your real name is Warren Buffet color me unimpressed.  A while ago you saw a recession coming and then Corona hit, thus proving that even a broken clock is right two times a day.  Congratulations.   In the mean time I keep buying at least every two weeks and don’t have to give a damn. Boring, I know, but I’m not Warren Buffet.
  12. Buying property in Germany

    I call that bullish. It would mean in worse case the prices of 2015/2016 and a comparatively small correction when you take into account what’s going on.    About the stock market: 1) you can stop pretending you were something besides lucky 2) I honestly don’t need to care.
  13. Buying property in Germany

    empirica expects a full recovery as early as in one year, which is not a long time - better to prepare now for those deals. The  IW institute on the other hand is bullish on property as they see the cheap money getting cheaper plus the idea of Beton gold  as the determining factor.   Personally, I wouldn’t buy now. I’ll wait at least two to three months to see how things develop. In the last days I’ve been checking the Zwangsversteigerungs website and the usual Immobilienportals, no sign of a crisis or price  drop yet. There’s likely some bluff involved. However, I don’t feel the need to buy, now or ever, so it’s an emotionally low stakes game for me - strictly business.
  14. Everything is fine, I invested some of my money reserves a couple weeks ago outside the biweekly sparplan. Bought Vanguard world and Berkshire Hathaway. Considering to buy oil futures right now. Saving more money than usual (no dinning out, no traveling adds up). That’s more money for the sparplan. Glad that my wife is I’m health care, even my company can run into problems if the supply chain evaporates.   My financial investments are taking a beating, but I wasn’t selling anyway.    I also had a good talk with my bank advisor.. if the property prices in Munich do break and something irresistible pops up we want to be ready.  
  15. Buying property in Germany

    that has nothing to do with what I said, i.e what kind of property is desirable to buy has nothing to do with what newcomers in Germany can expect to find as lodging. Small apartments in the city center have increased  the most in value in the last decade with the argument that young, single professionals are too busy either working or enjoying city life to stay indoors and that suburbs are unsexy. The really needy stay wherever they can, they don’t start a new topic in this forum asking for an apartment as long as it is in Schwabing or Haidausen. And by the way, a lot of Southern Europeans that arrived because of the crisis were highly educated and landed good paying jobs. They didn’t come solely out of desperation.  
  16. Buying property in Germany

    The empirica institute, which has been bearish on German real estate since a couple years, has just divulged a study in which they expect a crash in property prices up to 25% in 2020/2021. However, they expect a full recovery afterward driven by extra demand, their reasoning being that like in 2008 the crisis will hit southern Europe disproportionately harder and industry driven Germany (which is in addition proving itself a haven in time of health crisis) will see increased immigration as a result. I agree with them. as an aside, pos-corona buyers and renters will in my opinion give added value to stuff like gardens, large balconies and an extra room. Small-apartments in densely built areas are going to lose value harder in comparison.  
  17. What is money?

    Unemployment reached almost 30% in Spain and Greece during the financial crisis and has recovered since then. I don’t expect it to reach those levels in Germany as its economy is more resilient. Most of the jobs that go away first are the jobs in the service industry that require little training, and those jobs always come back in whatever form when demand ramps up - unless forbidden people will not stop gambling (unfortunately), drinking or going out. I’m not denying it to be a painful, expensive process but I’m remaining optimistic.   As an aside, this crisis shows again the critical importance of living below one’s means and building financial security in the good years. It’s an attest of minority that after 10 growth years so many businesses and individuals face bankruptcy and ask for help after barely a month of disruptions. We as a society and individuals have to become sturdier than this. Yes, that means less or no fancy vacations and less or no luxury purchases, and -this is critical- less debt fueled, fast growth if you’re a business. It may mean you settle with a steady, boring occupation. It also means sounder jobs and a robuster future for us all.
  18. I was answering to RF. Software engineers and alike are not being thrown out of their jobs in mass. Those people that are need to be protected and retrained, and from what I see the German government has seen to this.   the article is mostly about the 80%-20% job/jobless divide.   I can’t know how fast the recovery will be but I choose to be optimistic. I’m guessing some sectors will be faster than others (millions are in need of a hairdresser, me included..)  but since the productive population is not dying off in large numbers (like in a war) and our infrastructure is intact I’m counting the boom will come after the virus is eliminated as a threat and people start traveling again. One year or two is what I read as a realistic timeframe for a vaccine or cure. Until then we’ll wobble by.   A lot more sectors are booming than health care and biotech. Amazon and alikes are having the time of their lives, everything related to automation and remote communications is growing. Given time I expect VR to be the next big thing.    yeah, I don’t know why they had to quit their current apartment. Getting a new one without a single job may be more challenging than getting the job itself.. it depends of where they want to live I guess. It’s just too hard to get rid of a problem tenant in Germany.. that makes landlords very picky.
  19.  Around a fifth of German households have been impacted adversely so far: https://m.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/mehr-wirtschaft/wirtschaftliche-auswirkung-von-corona-auf-haushalte-noch-begrenzt-16721402.html the other 80% have to carry a bigger weight on their shoulders than usual in current times. This means extra work and extra taxes. I’m not trying to minimize this, I’m saying though that it’s not the end of all things and that we’ll recover fast. In the meantime enjoy the advantages of being in a country with a centuries old exemplary social safety net and a country that is from the major economies ranked as the most resilient.   the German car industry, on the other hand, was in a major self induced crisis before Corona. Now they have the perfect argument to lay people off and be left out of the hook for their deficiencies. Very much like Brexit and the brexiters.   back on topic, a mid thirties software engineer with enough money to comfortably live over 5 years without having to earn a single extra dime can quit his or her job unless she or he really is braindead clueless. Most people can only dream about being in such a good position. 
  20. Who’s that all you’re going about? I’m certainly not going and neither is any acquaintance I can think about. The crisis neutral employment in Germany seems to be around 80%. The rest is concentrated on the service industry and in some form or the other will pick up quickly in a few months. Stop being chicken little.
  21. Please, €200,000 liquidity + ALG1 if needed + Age+ professional skills + no children = she’ll do fine. Software engineers are not currently being laid off in droves neither is that foreseeable. Renting a new apartment before having a contract will be problematic. As a landlord and given the choice I’d rent to someone else.
  22. What is money?

    I’m staying positive as I see it this way: mankind is showing a virus that we’re so powerful in comparison to it that we’re willing to temporarily inconvenience ourselves in order to save even the weakest and oldest of us, and in the meantime throwing immense scientific resources to kill it off and the threat it represents. It’s the first time in history that we can do this properly and we have almost unanimously decided to do it. After the threat is vanquished we’ll emerge stronger and more ready than before, our economy having been pruned and modernized. 80% of all jobs exist regardless of the crisis, and those 80% employed can carry the load while the 20% affected wait it out or reorientate themselves.   It’s not a war, there’s no destruction. People won’t be dying in mass. Everything is set for a massive recovery. There’s a good chance the oil industry will have been dealt a blow it won’t recover from. Mankind has its flaws, but it has all the advantages in comparison to an unthinking, insignificant virus.
  23. Buying property in Germany

      No, I think that the prices reflect the market conditions and I realize how scarce good properties in Munich are and how much money, local and international, there is in this city. I last bought in 2017: a property which I’m very happy about. However, it took two years of business cases and creating databases, and easily more than thirty physical visits to get there. I don’t feel the itch to put the work into it at the moment and don’t need to. If there’s a downturn and it becomes easier to get the good stuff I’ll be obviously tempted.  
  24. Buying property in Germany

      I’ve made my opinion about timing the market clear. I keep a close eye on the real estate market and new offers and I’d be willing to invest in a -by me- judged a good location and attractive place at current prices if I get offered a deal. The net dividends are small but the banks are almost literally offering me money and again, I think very long term.   It’s very hard to find something which is not trash though because of the (often professional) competition and stuff like raising children and working. I went to a sighting last year and it was like a pack of dogs to one bone. Don’t have the patience and time needed right now. Stock market is much easier. If the competition goes down though..
  25. Buying property in Germany

    In 2008 and 2009 it was quite fine as the competition for properties dried up. In the event my rental income falls flat (I’ve actually been in contact with all my tenants and made sure they’re fine and have no income problems, I’d be otherwise willing to help them out) it will hit my income stream and thus fortune building but since we have two safe jobs and we made sure we can live with one salary instead of the two we have plus other income sources I’m changing nothing and waiting it out. If property prices drop significantly I’ll be probably buying.   I’m betting though that also this will come to pass and that Munich will remain a great place where people want to live and work.