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Everything posted by mtbiking

  1. General tips when renting accommodation

    +1. My renters sometimes have specific wishes about replacing a fixture (such as a nicer, more expensive toilet than the older one, or something changed in the otherwise functional shower, etc) and we then tend to share the expense, but that’s it.
  2. but the last weeks have been rockin’
  3. Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation

      You can't make this shit up, someone drove from behind against my car today (my wife was driving it, she's fine). It's not a fender bender, I'm getting a professional opinion tomorrow but the trunk's door and the rear bumper + sensors, etc are history and need to be replaced. It's at least 5 or 6 k€, which begs the question shall we do it or cash the insurance money in, sell the car as it is and get a new one now instead of in one or two years. Damnit, decisions to be made. 
  4. Cholesterol values - question for the Doctors

    I’m always reminded of a scene from Karate Kid (the original and only real one):    - Daniel: You think you could break a log like that? - Mr. Miyagi: Don't know. Never been attacked by a tree before    😛
  5. Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation

      I want to be able to carry a lot of stuff without playing Tetris all the time and throw in a bike for good measure. It can be a bit smaller than my Passat but the Tesla is significantly smaller.  I've actually done a round in a colleague's Model 3 some time ago.
  6. Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation

    getting better and better, I’d order the damn Y version of it for that price today. The 3 is too small for me damnit.
  7. President Donald J. Trump

    One day more, Les Miserables parody:
  8. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      For every analyst shouting buy there's one advising to  sell, for every lobbyist one one side you can be sure there's a counterpart lobbying for the other.
  9. Lufthansa voucher - destination unknown?!

      Around here it's rather expensive houses and expensive company cars in the driveways. 
  10. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

        Analyists and lobbyists tend to cancel themselves. And yes, housing is considered a basic need in Germany: if you are a resident and truly can't afford your rent anymore the city of Munich will  subsidize it or try to find you a suitable accommodation, and the long waiting times are a big problem. But there's no constitutional right to a cheap, stylish  apartment within 10 min cycling distance from Marienplatz. Having left Lisbon 15 years ago I still think that many, many people are spoilt here and have no idea of how good they have it.
  11. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    That mostly explains the scarcity in real estate in Munich. I don’t get to decide anything, but I think that “central” Munich is essentially full. They’ll use the available space more effectively when replacing old buildings or factories (see the old Kultfabrik area in Ostbahnof) but that’s mostly it. The area to the west/northwest of the city offers some place to expand and maybe build some high rises but that’s it.   The smaller cities in the suburbs, specially in the south, will continue to grow but with a lot of red tape and discussions as there are many small centers of decision involved and independent from Munich.
  12. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    In many cases that farm land doesn’t belong to Munich and the cities in charge of it resist to becoming an extension of Munich.
  13. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    I’m sorry. But overall there’s a big resistance here to that sort of thing and compromises need to be made. I’m from Portugal, as long as money exchange hands mostly no-one stands in the way of a development there and it shows 😕
  14. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    Ok, and all together what did that bring you? I’m mostly curious. I didn’t sell a single thing but used the largest part of my cash reserves to buy in March/April parallel to my sparplan. I’m basically up on what I invested last year, and the rest is give or take at January last year’s level plus dividends.
  15. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      Interesting. When did you get back in and how much did that in the end cost or earned you?
  16. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      That's only partially right, sometimes you win by not losing - those who buy a single home to live in it are effectively hedging against future rental and price increases by becoming market neutral.
  17. Cholesterol values - question for the Doctors

    I’d tell you to forget about FTP for a while, go out and cycle. Enjoy the sport and being outside and the mental block goes away. Oh, and join Strava if you haven’t already - the competition and encouragement you get from others helps. The weather is not a problem with the right equipment, I’ve been out cycling on last Thursday, Friday and Sunday - the snow makes an otherwise flat trail  feel like a long uphill cycle. Or go running.
  18. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    @goodbye_bluesky, I’m also having some difficulty getting your point, but you’re wrong in some assumptions:   - international investors have in fact discovered Munich several years ago, as you curiously first deny and then seem to acknowledge.   - Munich real estate in 2010 was under-appreciated  precisely because of the stagnant prices in the last couple decades coupled with the excellent job market, high rents, livability and location in Europe. A return to mean was foreseeable. People who bought back then aren’t only luckily, many of them just know how to do the math. Obviously, I couldn’t know whether or how fast the market would go up, just that it from the P/E ratio it made sense to buy.   - Many other asset classes have more than  doubled in value in the last ten years. If you had invested  in a SP500 ETF in 2011 you’d have more than tripled your money by now. There’s a lot of wealth going around globally and it’s amount, and the amount of wealthy people, is increasing. Physical assets are desirable for their scarcity - and Munich will likely and in the long term remain a very livable city with a high quality of life, and one where the people in power are not so wiling to sacrifice parks and forests for high rises and even if Germany and Munich are facing crises.. I try not to see the future in doom and gloom, otherwise instead of investing I’d probably have spent everything I have in drugs, alcohol and women by now.
  19. Lufthansa voucher - destination unknown?!

    Kudos to SpiderPig. I have a 55 year’s old colleague who bought a Tesla S P90+ for way over €100,000 on credit and has no wealth to speak of despite having earned a good income for the last 25 years - money in, money out. He now has as boss someone he has hired and he’s more than miffed all the time, but still a slave to his job. He’s a somewhat extreme example of how the majority of even high earners condemn themselves to be rats - all the while wondering why someone (like me) drives an eight years old car with a couple dents when he has money - the irony writes itself. That’s not how MikeMelga thinks, though - he can afford the Tesla 3.
  20. Lufthansa voucher - destination unknown?!

    a €250,000 investment fund is not a static thing. As long as the gears keep turning people and companies will endeavor to survive, solve problems and increase profits, pay dividends, etc. If you’re really paranoid about not losing any money to inflation then invest on ETFs which hold TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities). I wouldn’t do it (equities and real estate are historically much better long term investments), but it effectively solves your problem.   what happened in Germany happened in a distinct time and place. I don’t see that particular piece of history repeating itself.   Sorry to hear about your situation. I know several in IT who are doing fine, I’m guessing your focus is on the travel/tourism industry. I truly hope that in the near future it will get much better.
  21. Lufthansa voucher - destination unknown?!

    that.. depends entirely of what investments you’re talking about. Unless you’re talking about the end of civilization as we know it even common stock is a decent inflation hedge, as corporate profits rise up in periods of high inflation. Real estate is also a good hedge, as well as commodities and obviously  TIPS ETFs - the last one I don’t own but would buy if really paranoid. I guess that when hiding  €€ under the pillow is your favorite investment then inflation is all sorts of scary (not saying it’s your case).   In what industry are you?
  22. 😂 that’s a good one. 
  23. I think you could, but that’s fair enough 🙂    By coincidence, I got just now in my newsfeed an article featuring an Anti-Mike: ———————- Tesla TSLA, -7.82% short sellers, caught on the wrong end of a $38 billion hit in 2020, suffered “the largest yearly mark-to-market loss” Ihor Dusaniwsky of S3 Partners has ever seen.  One of those under water on that trade: Michael Burry. The investor, made famous in the book and film, “The Big Short,” for his prescient bet against the U.S. housing market, announced in early December that he was shorting Tesla at “ridiculous” levels.   ———————-
  24. Buying a house without realtor

    Prices have gone up in all the desirable places in Oberbayern, city and land. I’d think that a trend towards home office makes people want bigger homes in nice places not too far away from the workplace and from the city, i.e suburbs with a lot of green and close to the lakes and the mountains. The problem is that the prices there, while lower than in Munich, are not considerably lower. My parents in law are from the Weilheim-Schongau area, a new single family home can easily be €800,000 or more there and in my opinion for that money represents a worse deal than a more expensive house in Munich (I realize that many don’t have a choice).   A home is a huge purchase and it’s not hard for people to realize that the pandemic will be a thing of the past in one year or two and plan accordingly. The cultural and social disadvantages of living in the middle of nowhere have not suddenly gone away.
  25. If anyone could predict the stock market with a decisive advantage in comparison to everybody else he or she would have to invest relatively modestly the whole life and never, ever publish anything. As soon as their success is recognized whatever method they invented will logically stop working as more and more investors start using it and thus influence by their actions the market conditions. It’s a bit like the uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics. The effect has been observed  in the past and is a matter of study in academia.   I don‘t believe it can done, which obviously doesn’t mean that some smart and knowledgeable people won’t make educated guesses that are more often right than wrong and thus get wealthy - even considering that the standard investment adviser‘s strategy to get wealthy is through the provision paid by their clients.   The laws of probability are also important to consider: for every expert predicting a crash there’s another predicting good years ahead, so one of them will for sure get the glory and fame and be seen as a visionary. Somewhere else in the internet there’s a sad, sad Anti-Mike that was very bearish on Tesla and just lost the farm. He’s not posting much nowadays.   .. long story short that’s why buying the whole market though index Fonds plus cost averaging is the best investment strategy almost anyone can follow.