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About mtbiking

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  • Location Munich
  • Nationality Portugal
  • Gender Male
  • Year of birth 1979

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  1. Coronavirus

      No, the number of cases is rising exponentially in the south (power of approx 2.5). Over 200 dead today in Lazio and the Naples region.
  2. Coronavirus

    new infections are increasing exponentially in the southern cities (my previous lost) and dropping in Lombardy.
  3. Coronavirus

    I checked today the regional data in Italy. Rome, Naples, Milano and Torino are growing with a power law of about 2.5. I’m worried. And I ought to find something else to model, this is depressing.
  4. I’ve sunk my expectations so low that a productive day for me now is the children not destroying the house.
  5. Coronavirus

    Things don’t look good for the UK. They’re clearly a couple weeks behind but they’re having a difficulty comparable with Spain’s in diagnosing people (indicated by the third graph). The official cases underestimate the number of diseased and like in Spain they’re not catching up -> if it continues like this they’ll be overwhelmed. That’s an engineering lesson from China, SK and also Germany:  to actively control  something you better observe it.
  6. Coronavirus

    the analysis is my own. The raw dataset was downloaded from
  7. Coronavirus

    Updated stats       Notice the fast increase of cases in NYC: likely the result of a lot more daily tests. Germany’s number of cases is increasing but the curve is clearly flatter than in the other countries. The official death rate in Germany  is now 0.4%.   PS: I have my own predictive model for Italy and the results match Mikemelga’s. 
  8. The crisis will pass and we’re a social species who loves to travel. We’ll return to the mean. And even if that takes longer than expected other businesses will flourish: communications, Virtual reality (big one), medical, logistics, etc. that’s the beauty of index investing: it’s self correcting. Old concepts and companies die off and are replaced by new. Markets are rising fast because markets are emotion and algorithm driven manic/compulsive-obsessive beasts. I prefer to ignore short term fluctuations.
  9. Coronavirus

    Not feeling the need to compete with Mikemelga I nonetheless find myself with increasingly more time in my hands (at least at night) and got myself a corona data set to play with. Here’s a plot I personally found interesting, total number of dead divided by total number of cases.   In my opinion the numbers in Germany are being massaged to look nicer. Superior health care and more tests can explain somewhat the discrepancy but by this much? It stretches credulity. Or Germany rocks. Whatever makes you happy.  
  10. Coronavirus

    Practically all MDs are currently either engaged with Corona patients or preparing for it: hospitals have been emptied of other patients and are not accepting more (except emergency cases, obviously) , preparation courses for specialists in the diverse areas that take place besides the normal shifts, replacing colleagues with a cold while they get tested for Corona, etc.     Add to that a population that is used to call and consult a doctor  for any possible reason in normal circumstances. it’s not easy for any of them at the moment and obviously not easy for non-urgent patients.
  11. since I almost only own US and world index Fonds I only need companies to exist in 10 to 15 years. Which ones is irrelevant.
  12. Why more violence? 
  13. Personal log, 23.03.2020: it has been a week since I voluntarily abdicated from using toilet paper and started using the bidet. I’ve noticed strange side effects like having to change underwear less often and not feeling the need to shower daily. So far I’m managing to survive. I’m starting to wonder what all the fuss is about.. maybe I’ll be dead in one week though we’ll see.
  14. Coronavirus

    that’s funny, I own property and don’t have any motivation at all to increase the rent either now or afterwards.
  15. Coronavirus

    most white collar jobs, bullshit jobs or not, can be done remotely nowadays and with VR exploding it will be even more so. This crisis will in my opinion drive the automatization of our society even more: street cleaning, garbage disposal, package delivering etc can be more safely done in such a crisis by robots and drones than people.   even medicine: my wife is doing doubleshifts and at risk partially because the (economic) motivation to automatize medicine to a greater degree hasn’t been there so far. There’s no reason why a MD or a nurse is required to personally talk with a patient and run tests on him. Those things will be automatized.