mtbiking

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About mtbiking

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  • Location Munich
  • Nationality Portugal
  • Gender Male
  • Year of birth 1979

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  1. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      No, it wouldn’t. I’m sorry to contradict you, but I know the real state market in Munich very well. The older house has 75 sqm more ground, which apples for apples  is worth’s approx €200,000 more alone. It’s also bigger and being sold without a Markler, which means that the owner is most likely pushing the price up a bit. Yes, it’s older, but the rest more than compensate the added age. The house you found is not worth 1.3 million.
  2. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    Yeah, that house is worth a million or so, of which around €700,000 is for the ground. It’s a small DHH too close to the highway. Personally, I wouldn’t want to buy it / live there with two children.
  3. Your cunning plan may catastrophically backfire as the girls come back to your room with a couple of drunk, buff guys who think you're the doormat.. 
  4. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      Nobody newly rents an Apartment/house worth 1.5 - 2 million for €2100/month in Munich unless he/she has no clue: - The Mietspiegel is irrelevant if you sell.  - The 2.5 to 3% Rendite is the free market pricing in Munich in 2019. Keep in mind that 10 years ago was different, an apartment bought back then would likely have generated 5-6% Bruttorendite (interest rates where 4-5% back then), the same apartment has doubled in value and is now generating 2-3% with the same Rental contract. -  If you rent it with a standard rental contract for such little money you're shooting yourself in the foot as the apartment's market value drops like a stone - it's not easy or cheap to get rid of tenants in Germany, specially tenants who know they've lucked out, and your apartment if suddenly not so interesting for potential buyers. As a rule, the lower the rent is, the older the rental contract, the cheaper the apartment.  - Keeping an apartment empty is a strategy followed by some property owners in Munich/Germany, precisely because an empty apartment is worth more and because it's hard and expensive to cancel a rental contract with  tenants in Germany when the need arises.   So basically you need a landlord rich and with no clue/no wish to make more money, and at the same time willing to put up with tenants which can expect a good degree of confort from such an expensive place, and other owners with certain expensive renovation ideas for the building -> they're likely to be wealthy after all, for comparatively very little money. Please tell me if you find such a landlord, I'll move in myself.
  5. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      ?? No, I know that Mikemelga just rented it, and I know that you can sell an empty house for market prices. If the landlord still proceeds to rent if for a lot less than he  could to a complete stranger  and not even for social reasons then he is, I repeat, an idiot.   In other words, It doesn’t matter for what price and when  I bought the apartment. If the market value is x and I get y monthly rent, then my rental dividend is 12y/x.
  6. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    It’s straightforward, nowadays the bruttorendite oscillates between 2.5% (bad) and 3% (normal) or more per year. If your kaltmiete is €2100 then your house would cost between €840,000 and €1000.000. If you’re paying a bit over €2000 month for an apartment worth over a million euro then your landlord is a freaking idiot.   i give you a lot or reason, but I’m still of a different opinion. There are eight DAX companies with headquarters in Munich, and only one is BMW. The others are at most tangentially auto related.. I can tell you that we have 30 positions opened for highly qualified, well paid jobs and it’s very difficult to fill them, we’ve in fact been talking lately about how the incoming crisis is good for us, to fill those places that is. I’m also counting (pessimistically) with climate change to make Southern Europe more or less unlivable and people to want to move even more to core Europe. I’m hoping that’s just me, however, and that it won’t come through. 
  7. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      Timing the market is an exercise in futility. 
  8. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      I understand that a lot of people truly need to live from paycheck to paycheck.. but those don’t have money to invest anyway and are of course screwed by a crisis if they lose their jobs. But there are many around here that firmly believe that if they don’t go to a different continent a few times per year and don’t drive a new luxury car they’re not enjoying life. Plus fitness studio for two, dinning out, and so on. And they keep the couple euros they save in the bank because otherwise it’s too risky (reads: too lazy to understand how investing works and too spoilt to do what it takes to save). And when they reach 40 they say now it’s too late to start, as if no information was available on the subject 10 or 20 years ago.   It wouldn’t be a problem if every couple of months they wouldn’t write an essay about taxing the “rich” 🤬
  9. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      If you put yourself in a position of never needing to sell that sounds like a great opportunity to get richer. I “lost” money in 2008/2009 and kept investing nevertheless - in index funds and real estate in a couple countries. Of course, we spend around half of our income even with my wife not working full time - at the cost of living a lot more frugally than most colleagues -  and we have recession proof jobs at the cost of not maximizing our earnings by jumping to better opportunities, besides also having some assets just parked there and unfortunately not generating income, but as safe as I can get them.
  10. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      Agreed, that would be stupid. Diversification is the key. Having a plan A is fine as long as there’s a plan B and C.
  11. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      🤨 What did you own? Single stocks or something like MSCI world or SP500 index fonds.l? We kept getting dividends paid out before, during and after the financial crisis.    Money is safe as I count on never needing to sell my investments, maybe a few percent per year if/when I decide to retire. So I’m perfectly fine with recessions or whatever - welcome them in fact.
  12. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      There’s a lot of wealth in Munich/Bavaria to dampen the effect of a major recession (like in 2009) and almost all mortgages have the low interest rate fixed for a long time. If it all crashes down and never recovers (equals mass unemployment) the debt levels in Munich won’t be the biggest problem - the banks would crash with all the insolvencies. But this won’t happen, as the industry and the state will react and years later the economy will be in an upswing again (it’s almost like the economy is cyclical..).
  13. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

      That’s not exactly true. Even if you never sell you still get paid dividends periodically from the stock or finds you own, and these don’t go down in value so much as the shares value in a downturn as businesses want to show they’re healthy during recessions. At current valuations you can count with around 200€/month of payouts for every €100,000 you own of a whole world index fond. I’m very sorry to hear about your mom, but she really should have diversified. 
  14. Bavaria and the real estate bubble

    Betting against the ability of Germans and the German state to solve problems and keep on having one of the most successful societies on earth is underestimating them. If there’s a country with the demonstrated ability to get up after being put on the ground with a bloody nose, that country is Germany.    Yeah, it’s very likely that we’ll soon have a major economic crisis. A lot of the industry will have to reinvent itself. In the long term it doesn’t matter, as long as there’s a Western Europe Germany will be one of or the focal point of it.   
  15. Without knowing the cold, hard numbers [monthly income, debt, assets, purchase price of current and future property, family situation, etc] it's not possible to give you an answer.Selling straight afterward you've paid (wasted..) up to 8.5% in NK is in general a shitty thing to do, specially since we're talking about Munich. Personally, I'd do it as a last resort and throwing up all the way.