mtbiking

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About mtbiking

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  • Location Munich
  • Nationality Portugal
  • Gender Male
  • Year of birth 1979

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  1. Lufthansa voucher - destination unknown?!

    a €250,000 investment fund is not a static thing. As long as the gears keep turning people and companies will endeavor to survive, solve problems and increase profits, pay dividends, etc. If you’re really paranoid about not losing any money to inflation then invest on ETFs which hold TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities). I wouldn’t do it (equities and real estate are historically much better long term investments), but it effectively solves your problem.   what happened in Germany happened in a distinct time and place. I don’t see that particular piece of history repeating itself.   Sorry to hear about your situation. I know several in IT who are doing fine, I’m guessing your focus is on the travel/tourism industry. I truly hope that in the near future it will get much better.
  2. Lufthansa voucher - destination unknown?!

    that.. depends entirely of what investments you’re talking about. Unless you’re talking about the end of civilization as we know it even common stock is a decent inflation hedge, as corporate profits rise up in periods of high inflation. Real estate is also a good hedge, as well as commodities and obviously  TIPS ETFs - the last one I don’t own but would buy if really paranoid. I guess that when hiding  €€ under the pillow is your favorite investment then inflation is all sorts of scary (not saying it’s your case).   In what industry are you?
  3. I think you could, but that’s fair enough 🙂    By coincidence, I got just now in my newsfeed an article featuring an Anti-Mike:   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-short-investor-says-his-big-tesla-short-is-getting-bigger-and-bigger-11610313191?mod=the-margin ———————- Tesla TSLA, -7.82% short sellers, caught on the wrong end of a $38 billion hit in 2020, suffered “the largest yearly mark-to-market loss” Ihor Dusaniwsky of S3 Partners has ever seen.  One of those under water on that trade: Michael Burry. The investor, made famous in the book and film, “The Big Short,” for his prescient bet against the U.S. housing market, announced in early December that he was shorting Tesla at “ridiculous” levels.   ———————-
  4. Buying a house without realtor

    Prices have gone up in all the desirable places in Oberbayern, city and land. I’d think that a trend towards home office makes people want bigger homes in nice places not too far away from the workplace and from the city, i.e suburbs with a lot of green and close to the lakes and the mountains. The problem is that the prices there, while lower than in Munich, are not considerably lower. My parents in law are from the Weilheim-Schongau area, a new single family home can easily be €800,000 or more there and in my opinion for that money represents a worse deal than a more expensive house in Munich (I realize that many don’t have a choice).   A home is a huge purchase and it’s not hard for people to realize that the pandemic will be a thing of the past in one year or two and plan accordingly. The cultural and social disadvantages of living in the middle of nowhere have not suddenly gone away.
  5. If anyone could predict the stock market with a decisive advantage in comparison to everybody else he or she would have to invest relatively modestly the whole life and never, ever publish anything. As soon as their success is recognized whatever method they invented will logically stop working as more and more investors start using it and thus influence by their actions the market conditions. It’s a bit like the uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics. The effect has been observed  in the past and is a matter of study in academia.   I don‘t believe it can done, which obviously doesn’t mean that some smart and knowledgeable people won’t make educated guesses that are more often right than wrong and thus get wealthy - even considering that the standard investment adviser‘s strategy to get wealthy is through the provision paid by their clients.   The laws of probability are also important to consider: for every expert predicting a crash there’s another predicting good years ahead, so one of them will for sure get the glory and fame and be seen as a visionary. Somewhere else in the internet there’s a sad, sad Anti-Mike that was very bearish on Tesla and just lost the farm. He’s not posting much nowadays.   .. long story short that’s why buying the whole market though index Fonds plus cost averaging is the best investment strategy almost anyone can follow.
  6. Have you found the law in question yet or is your focus now on how to get a vaccine which is not compulsory and likely doesn’t really bring anything to people who already have the antibodies the vaccine develops? I’m putting you on ignore and thus making a good day a tiny bit better.
  7. 1) if they come  they won’t be here for longer than three months 2) they’ll get the vaccine either here or in all likelihood when they get back home, money to buy it is by the way not a problem even if it were necessary, which it isn’t. 3) I generally know the law and what I’m doing quite well, so you can stop the bullshit - I already gave you a chance to prove me wrong.  
  8. OK, show me the law, black on white, saying that Schengen space EU members  (not foreigners like the brits) are currently not allowed to travel to Germany and stay with their closest family for a couple months and I’ll advise them not to come. Even your first point is as far as I understand irrelevant as there’s no need to quarantine if you arrive with a negative test max two days old.
  9. if they have the antibodies they’re almost certainly immune and it’s their own decision to come here (our house is big enough thankfully) for some months and be with the grandkids while we work. It doesn’t break any rules as far as I know.   
  10.   thanks so much everyone. My father is since yesterday officially cured of Corona and can now leave the house. For him it felt like having a common cold. My mom will get tested next week for antibodies, if the test is positive they’re buying tickets to fly here in the next days 😀 
  11. Coronavirus

      yeah, my wife received a letter 10 days ago asking for her to volunteer to work in the vaccination campaign (she registered) and she has normally nothing to do with the topic. From the contents of the letter you’re on point. It can't obviously be full time though because of her own patients, it’s rather extra time.
  12. My father has just tested positive. He’s a fit 69 year‘s old and so far has little to show for symptoms, but I can’t avoid feeling very upset. My parents have been isolating as well. He says he must have caught it shopping eight days ago.
  13. MikeMelga has a good head over his shoulders, but neither he nor anyone can predict a global market crash in 2 or 3 years, what the bottom will look like and how long it will take to recover. There’s nothing wrong though in having some cash on the side for emergencies and to double invest when a crash does come.
  14. Car Lease/Finance Advice Needed

    I’m all for splurging €50,000 on a new car when you have a net worth of a couple million euro. I love technology and I enjoy sportive driving, so I can relate to wanting a nice car. However, driving a €50,000 car (purchase price, the value drops afterward like a stone) when your net worth is a fraction of that belongs in my own definition of insanity. I realize some people don’t seem to mind working their whole lives to pay someone else and afterward retire poor, but it doesn’t need to be encouraged.