LeChamois

Mietrecht.org is very clear about it, a fixed-term rental contract cannot be terminated early because of "Eigenbedarf".

That's Portuguese.  

Only 17% of households in Munich have any children al all, there are only 2778 households in Munich with 4 or more children. The number of births in Munich dropped by 2.6% between 2016 and 2017, but that did not receive the same kind of attention in the media as the previous increase. Of course Baukindergeld will have an effect on prices in Munich, mathematically it has to. However, this effect will be very small compared to economic growth and job creation, interest rates, immigration etc.

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I think at least as far as this thread is concerned you are making that up. Nobody has suggested that prices couldn't possibly continue to rise. You are the the only one who seems to think he has a crystal ball. There are though plenty of facts that should make you at least contemplate the idea that prices could also go the other way. Just a selection, the possibility of higher interest rates, regulatory changes - look at airbnb in the SZ today - and mid-term also the ageing population  

Would you tell us where "here" is? In Munich it's closer to 1% taking interest into account.

Annother point is that you cannot simply continue increasing the rent in Germany and the OP wanted to put 10% down so these numbers are all wrong anyway.

  If you simply postulate that your asset is going to increase in value by 5% every year of course you are going to make a profit. That's the problem with any investment - you just don't know.

The way prices have been going up and down like a yoyo in big cities in Germany and the world would make it seem like hubris to try and predict ROI with any degree of accuracy. It's not important whether you are happy with a purchase decision you have just made, you'll need to wait for ten years to find out whether it was the right one. Current prices are mainly a result of low interest rates and they might or might not be the same in five or ten years. Just don't think that buying real estate at current prices and most likely using huge leverage/mortgage is a conservative investment.