U.S. Presidential Election 2008

As far as I know, you get Kid From Deliverance stuff from that, but not Downs.

Women over 35 have a very increased chance of having a DS baby. So for a woman of 44, the chances are astronomical. It's Sarah's baby, end of gossip.

And I agree she should be taking care of that baby, not trying to help run the country. She's peaking too early.

Haha, Palin's daughter is called Bristol, haha, how much more white trash can you get?

80% of Down's babies come from younger women. Teens are not immune from having a baby with an extra chromosome. For the record.

@FirstCitizen: since Palin just got her first passport last year, obviously she had never been to England before her eldest daughter was born. Anyway, Bristol, and her siblings' names, are perfectly common in the US. For dogs.

My error, >18.


I'll correct. We'll doubtless soon find out for sure.

This may be junk statistics. What percentage of all births are by women under 35 versus over 35?

A better question would clearly be "what percentage of births by women over 35 have Downs Syndrome?".

The number I have in my head is 1/100 for older and 1/1000 for under ... which would still likely back into your 80%.

Don't confuse correlation and causation.

If you want real entertainment, go to Fox news and read the praise comments from all of those holding to the Christian values - another blessing on the way, good for her (not aborting). These people are out there and they vote.

I'm not confusing anything, Expaticus. The reason that 80% of Down's babies are born to women under 35 in the United States is because there are a whole lot more babies in general born to women under 35 than over 40. Punkt.

But you can't say that Trig is definitively not Bristol's, just because Bristol is under 35. That's all.

You guys are lucky that so far I have held off on posting a photo of myself as a first-time mother at 8 months' gestation, just to prove the unlikelihood that Sarah Palin could get that far before anyone noticed she was looking a bit bloated lately.

Anyway, moving on, we're still waiting for the right-wing pundits' reactions to all this (kudos to the Palins for announcing this on the day a hurricane will hit the Gulf Coast, AND a holiday.) Here's a guess what it will be:

The chances are NOT astronomical...The incidence at age 44 is 1 in 41

So to view it another way...about 2 to 3 babies per 100 will be born down to 44 year old women. Because younger women have a larger % of babies, a greater number of downs babies are born to younger mothers...but the risk is still higher with age.

Incidentally most women who are tested, over the age of 35, who test positive for Downs terminate (about 90-95%). However as most younger women are not covered for testing, they are not aware they are carrying a Down's baby and so go full term.

One can disagree with Palin's positions on political issues, as I do for instance when it comes to just about everything she stands for, however the venom being spat at her on this thread is incredibly cheap and makes the high and mighty claims about Obama's holier-than-thou non "personal" campaign the horseshit that it always was.

Jules, please read cinzia's quote...that's what is appauling. And Obama said - this is not political foder. At least he took the high road.

Completely agreed. Black urban poverty and all the results of which are immediately deemed "morally bankrupt", but white rural poverty and all the results of which are seen as "quaint".

Do I have to post that dueling banjos thing again?

This is a game-changer, because it's going to tip a lot of Republican-leaning "social liberal, economic conservative" types into the Obama camp, because this is all starting to look like something late night on the far end of the satellite TV dial.

Of course he is taking the high road!? He just lets his goons do all the dirty work for him...

Alright Cinzia, I'll take the bait. Why is Sarah Palin a bad mother?

And do you believe the fake birth story (because it sure sounds like you do)?

I don't see "venomous" postings. Some JOkes in poor taste (this is TT for Gods sake) but no venom.

Just seems another excuse for you to blame Obama. He is hardly responsible for this issue. And I doubt only Obama has "Goons". The "swiftboaters" and such are so nice and cuddly.

If John McCain wins, my faith in humanity (what little is remaining) will once and for all die a death.

JW, if McCain had any judgment at all, he would never have even put Palin on the short list for his running mate.

Now that all this mess is going on, and it's being expressed out in the wide world even if it were not here on TT, McCain has to call a halt. He needs to get Governor Palin to gracefully decline the nomination and go back to Alaska. If she had any kind of qualifications to be vice-president, that would be one thing.

It's just as much the fault of the McCain camp as anyone else's that Palin is going through this. She's ambitious, fine. But now we know that they both have poor judgment. How can you not call it crass and naive to think that your family will not be damaged by this? Bristol didn't just get pregnant last Friday. Palin accepted McCain's invitation to be his running mate, even though it was an awkward time for her family, to say the least. What were they all thinking???

@DanHessen: Sarah Palin is not a good mother because she obviously puts her own career before whatever else might be going on with her kids. Is there any question of that now? Mr. Palin is not a good father, either, as his ambitions are obviously linked with hers.

I thought there were (and still are, really) good arguments to support the hypothesis that Trig Palen was Bristol's son and not Sarah's. Obviously, if Bristol is as far pregnant as they say, she isn't Trig's mom. These rumors were spread around Alaska way before Palin became a candidate.

Gee whiz, I like an M-16-shooting sporty kid-loving woman as much as the next guy, but her life is so messed up at this point that it would drive any normal person insane.

The "venom" on this thread is clearly not being spat at her ... it appears to be (correctly) directed at a major political party who couldn't sort through 300 million people and come up with at least a Christie Whitman-style female candidate who could have possibly won them this election!

As an earlier poster said, this really is a complete trainwreck!

Link

The way she is being picked apart is disgraceful and makes all the people screaming bloody murder over anything remotely related to Obama's pristine personal life completely hypocritical.

I don't need another excuse to blame Obama. With supporters on this board who write the stuff that they do, I let them do all the work for me.


Some people need to understand the difference between pro-life and family values groups. Pro-lifers want people to keep babies regardless and/or practice abstinence. The religious types are obviously anti-abortion, but in addition are not happy that many of these inner-city pregnancies take place out of wedlock with a father who is unknown/awol.

Let it go, Jules. If you can't pause from bashing Obama and his supporters (real or invented) for just a second to see the comedy in all this, you're missing out.

I don't think there has been much venom here, and as I said above, I don't think the pregnant teen is such a liability, at least as far as connecting to voters McCain is hoping to tap into is concerned. Give her a gay child and oh no then all bets are off. But pregnant teens are par for the course, these voters don't care.

I think you're missing the point Jules, religion should be banned from the theatre of politics. This is where America is so backward compared to the rest of the world, particularly europe.

You know Dick Cheney's daughter is gay, right?

Ill vote Obama no matter how crazy Palin is. There i said it...

What is the issue here? Palin's 17 year-old kid is pregnant, oder? So fucking what? This is simply being spun according to political convenience and is certainly trivial compared to what can be said both about Obama and even McCain. I am neither scandalized, as the screaming lefties here are, nor am I impressed at her vigorous defense of family values, as I am sure Republicans are. This truly is a non-issue, and if it is, then I wonder what becomes of Moses' less than pristine background which includes matters which are truly politically relevant?

@ Melia... yes, of course. But I don't think these voters would tolerate another gay child, because that is an abomination. But teen pregnancy is really not all that uncommon, nor is getting married way too young and racing snow mobiles for kicks.

And Jules, you are taking this waaaaay too personally. Calm down! Detach!

Unless they aren't.

Agreed. Yet they (religious folk) vote unlike others. I hate to say it but for the most part Americas problem is apathy. I honestly believe this will the most important election in 25 years.

I am vaguely aware of the stats. I had lots of arguments with genetics counselors when it was thought that my son might have DS. I was nearly 40. And no, we would not have aborted. But I am still pro-choice.

I don't need to bash Obama. They're putting their feet in their mouths all by themselves. I am just astonished a their double-standards.

Really? I am for the return of a caliphate myself.


Do you actually think this?

Come on, dude. As if you were going to go any other way...

Honestly, some of you "morans" should read some conservative blogs and see what the reaction has been to Palin's situation. The pasting that she is getting in the media is pissing them off and "energizing" them more than McCain could have ever hoped for.

The Dems learned all about double-standards from the masters in the last two elections.

.http://www.dailykos.com/

Okay ... so if i screw up and don't practice abstinance, but I keep my baby, the pro-lifers will be happy.

But if I live in a city and have an out-of-wedlock pregnancy with an unknown father, religious types won't be happy.

So, does anyone know who's the father of Bristol Palin's baby? If not, how can the religious types possibly be happy?

I've lost the plot here.

@JW

No I had this arguement with Eurovol a year ago. I had not decided untill I studied all platforms and yes Mccain was an option. Granted the only GOP option I seriously considered but he still was an option. Although I ama lefty it is my responsability to study every option.

Like the Republicans' Karl Rove tactics are a figment of the American cultural imagination Get over it

Expaticus, Palin identified the father as "Levi" in her statement today. NYT

JW, Sarah Palin was picked for political convenience and nothing else.


Now that she's got this against her, in combination with her thin resume, she is worse than useless for McCain.

Yes, pro-life and family values are two different things, although you must admit that their adherents have a lot of crossover. There should be no problem regarding Bristol's pregnancy from pro-lifers. It would be be supremely contradictory for the family-values people to defend Sarah Palin's decision to go ahead with a grueling campaign, and potentially, high office at this time in her, and her family's, life.

BTC is, like you, a person who doesn't see eye-to-eye with me on a lot of political issues- he is, after all, a former UK Labour Party activist. At any rate, he himself has been accused of similar things and, yes, he has previously launched some pretty vicious attacks against me. It turned out that at least some of what had angered him were absolutely inaccurate (and in retrospect, ridiculous) misrepresentations by others of what I had openly posted here on TT. I'd say that although we still disagree on a lot of issues, we don't have a problem with each other on a personal level. As for playing fair, I'm all for it. Let's see if you can do it.

Anyway, here is an article on the myth of Joe Biden's "working class roots":
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columni...,7175933.column

Could that not have been taken care of with a PM, Conquistador?

We're talking about SCANDAL here! And you want to discuss the OTHER VP candidate? Good god.

Nice.

Now say I know more about the NFL than you do!

It's pretty self evident when you look at how much 'the god question' comes in to play during european elections compared to how many times he's mentioned in the U.S whenever you're voting for your next Hollywood actor/retard. What I think hardly factors.

could all those who are having personal "issues" with each other work them out by p.m., it is really rather boring for the rest of us.

The point is: No parent should expose their child to a national platform where judgment will be cast.
She did. She accepted the job offer. We're shocked. Dem or Rep - it doesn't matter. It's shocking.

That narrows it down. Hope she wasn't doing the same thing as that female protagonist in Back to The Future reading the tag from pants hung off the bedpost.

I thought that she was marrying him?

Fair enough.

Fine, but then don't whine about it when you use the same tactics.

Of course she was picked for political convenience. Why do you think that these candidates get picked??


Yes.


If her daughter does the allegedly right thing by keeping the baby and getting married, what influence should it have on Palin?

Sent you a PM.

They apparently do care ... the religious wing is up in arms about it.

I had forgotten about that, Expaticus.

Nothing wrong with being a Labour Party activist, as long as you're true Labour and not the Tony Bliar centrist neo liberal variety. Perhaps you deserve a kicking sometimes Conkie?