U.S. Presidential Election 2008

If we are so hated, why do they keep playing old (crappy) american music all over Stuttgart?

If everyone hates america, why are people still trying to get in? I guess we should close our borders to everyone.

What is this with losing conflicts? Iraq is scaling down and Afghanistan is relatively quiet.

You really have no clue if you think we are worse off than in 2001. The dot-com bubble was bad, then 9/11 hit. It was a bad time. We have had one quarter of (slightly) negative growth, so things have not been bad macroscopically.

I have a plan for Iran that would not involve forces on the ground. They are on my list.

Why not let the EU handle Russia? I am sure their military could stand up to anything the Russians could throw.

BTC, what is your plan for Iran and Russia and N Korea?

I'm sorry, but these people really are clueless. It really is more of the Bush pioneered "If reality doesn't match with our beliefs, reality must be wrong" view...

McCain adviser: there are no uninsured.


It f'ing boggles the mind.

Just to re-cap, there are no uninsured, but there are whiners.

Anecdotal plights are why people are encouraged to vote, not because of the wonderful and mysterious GDP. And no, I don't consider the US to be prosperous based on the GDP alone. Ignoring the anecdotal evidence is why so many want to kick the GOP out of office. Be it the Presidential seat .. or the Seats in Congress, take your pick.


Yea, and then those same residents turn around and blame displaced Katrina victims for the spike in crime in their neighborhoods. Some welcome

I'm sure it is a coincidence that the doubling of Houston's murder rate coincided with the influx of Katrina refugees. Or if you are so fond of anecdotes, pull up a chair and I can tell you a dozen or so about the Katritians that took up lodging at my apartment complex.

Gee, I can only consider my own brother and how he's faired since 2000.
My brother worked for Allison Engines for 5 yrs (designing jet engines) and in Nov 2001 was laid off because of 9/11. A contractor hired him to go back to work at Allison to do the job he was doing, only this time with better pay but NO BENEFITS. Oh, a year or so ago, Allison didn't need him anymore so he's working (again as a contractor) for another company designing airplane seats now.
His wife, my sister-in-law, got the family health insurance but was laid off her job in April after 15 yrs of service. She worked in the housing business and things are really bad there. Oh NO, no insurance. Fortunately, she got unemployment pay this summer and started a new job this week. She'll now get the family health insurance again. They have two kids, one at university and one in high school. I don't even ask how they are paying those expenses. But I can only imagine they are robbing their retirement to pay the schools and insurance companies.
They work hard, teach their kids right from wrong, go to church and give back to the community with their efforts at the church. But the Republicans offer no relief for them. No tax breaks, even taxing her unemployment pay. What would McCain do? Say things like - oh, everything's just fine. Just keep doing what you're doing! Well, after 7 yrs, My brother wants a permanent job with BENEFITS again and they don't want to go bankrupt financing their kids' education and health insurance.

Of course it's a 'coincidence'. Unless Houston is just the murder free capital of the Nation, then clearly it was 'those people'. It's quite easy to blame those who are most vunerable.
No need ... I have been involved in the system long enough to write a book about it.

You are a bit fuzzy on the word 'macroscopically', aren't you?

At one point in 2006 65 out of 316 murders involved Katritians..

What a coincidence that 20% of the murders in a city of 5.6 million involve a specific refugee group right after their arrival into the city.

The ones that weren't criminals got their shit together and rebuilt, the ones still lingering are the remanants of the underclass of the most corrupt city in the United States.

Of course, I am probably embittered by having walked to my car at the University of Houston after teaching a night class and finding one of my students having just been raped by a refugee..

Can you imagine, the insanity that must work in a mind that believes this mess. Makes people like me just wanna shake their heads or go throttle McCain, whichever is most feasible. And this is the example of policy minded people looking to lurch McCain to be the next President.

What's the complaint here? When unemployed she received unemployment, Both have found follow on jobs, they have health insurance and are providing for both children's education.

I hope your brother does get a job with benefits again, but unless he works for a company owned by Bush, McCain, Cheney, Obam, or Biden I don't see how any of them should be blamed.

Added later: Maybe you should ask how they're paying for it, might be helpful to know?

Might I suggest that they make the kid work and take out loans for university? Many of us had to do it and the world didn't end.

That the Big Corporations are being given tax breaks through Bush's administration, outsourcing jobs instead of supporting American citizens. I didn't mention that when he didn't work, he didn't get paid which was all too common given the circumstances. The housing bust has already trickled down and I don't think we've seen the bottom of it yet.

I hope things work out for your family. They sound like great folks.

Moctoj, they are only paying a high school if it is a private one- public K-12 education is free. Unemployment pay has been taxex for a long time, since, I believe the Democrats controlled Congress in the 1970s (since apparently the federal code that said it would be taxed refers to unemployment benefits paid after 12/31/78 and Democrats controlled both houses of Congress from 1955-1981). Democrats have controlled Congress since January 2007 and tax legislation starts in the House of Representatives, but Democrats have done nothing to end counting of unemployment benefits as taxable income, so to blame Republicans sounds like a misreprsentation to me. The Bush Administration cannot give tax breaks, only Congress can. Think Democrats never voted for and initiated coporate tax breaks?

Outsourcing is not a simple topic- jobs can be outsourced, yet never leave the US, plus let's not forget about "in-sourcing"- jobs that are created when foreign companies and individuals invest in the US. That doesn't mean that there aren't people who are disadvantaged from outsourcing actvities- unfortunately quite a few people are, but that is generally the result of private sector decisions.

Moctoj, now do you see why I said you would be vulnerable to a message of economic demagoguery?


Bear in mind that comment as you read this one:

Check yes but part-time jobs don't pay much for teenagers. How do you think they are paying, with their good looks? Of course they have loans too. They also live in a 20 yrs old house, drive older vehicles, then try to gas them up, pay for food, clothing, utilities, insurance, need I go on?

Bush sucks, but it wasn't him giving retards sub prime loans - it was the banks, idiots who got in over their heads, and greedy real estate flippers who are to blame for the housing bust. Bush certainly hasn't done anything to help the economy, but many of the underlying problems are not direct products of his incompetence - nor are they going to miraculously be solved if Obama takes over.


You are not a teenager when you go to University.. Kids should pay their own way through college.

What planet do you live on? My niece is a sophmore and she's just turned 20. How much did you make working part-time in high school or during the summer between semesters?

I thought that too at first but I think he was going toward undermining the statement "nation of whiners" and in general reminding people that America (fuck yeah) is made up of people from the bottom of the barrel who were able to make it to the top.. inspiration and all that. Basically that Americans should make their own destiny, but the government should make it possible for people to achieve the American dream instead of hindering it by focusing their spending on war and other nonsense.

Once you are 18 you are not really a teenager, you should be an adult. Thats a problem with societytoday - we treat people like kids into their mid 20s. I can't tell you how many parents butted in their kids university schoolwork when I was a TA.

I worked as a bartender during the semester, you can easily clear 3-400 a week bartending a few nights (I made that on friday-saturday nights alone, and mostly tax free) and then pay tuition with loans. You can live off that easily in your 20s.

The idea that you can't work during the semester is absurd, my junior/senior year I was pulling 25-30 hours a week at a law firm, 12-15 credit hours a semester and I still found time to abuse drugs and alcohol.

Shit, your niece is a girl, she doesn't even have to buy her own drinks.

Well, considering my brother's parental skills and the laws where he lives, teenagers can't be bartenders. Not to mention my niece has a 3.8 GPA. She worked part-time because she played sports and supported the church with her activities in her spare time. Working 20 hrs a week and pulling a full load of nursing prep courses - I'm quite proud of her. She doesn't waste her times with drugs and alcohol because for one, the drinking age is 21.
I'm not so sure you would be considered a good role model for her but thanks anyway.

Haha yes, the 21 year old drinking age stops many college students. Ignorance is bliss. Bartending aside there are a myriad of oppertunities for college students to make money, they just have to prioritize.

Role model? Perhaps not, but if someone with substance abuse habits can work their way through graduate school anyone can.

But good on her if she is doing well, my only point is pretty much against the too prevelent idea that a parents economic status can/should prevent their childrens university education.

Sounds to me like their living the dream. Good kids, working hard, I still don't see the complaint.

Guess you wouldn't Sanwald.
Whatever happened to the day when you could work for 30 yrs and not worry about retiring or paying for your kids education with your savings. Now, it's so expensive, you have to get loans.
What about the day when you could get sick and not fear bankruptcy after one illness. What about that peace of mind that it's going to be okay even if the times get a little tough. It's gone.
Reminds me of another story.
Man's wife has stroke. He takes care of her for 5 yrs until he can't afford it anymore and starts to find out what he can do to get some help. Lawyer tells him, divorce your wife so that Medicare will pay for her care. Put her in a nursing home so that you aren't taking care of her 24/7. What choice does he have? Spend his life savings, care for her until it kills him first? Oh yeah, that's the reality of it.
Or another - elderly woman can't get medicare to pay her medical bills until she sells the house and has no assets. Who does she live with then? Of course, her children must take her in and then, medicare kicks in. All is fine in the world with that kind of system.

I'll take "overly romanticised nostalgia for the mythical 'good old days'" for 2000, Alex. Problems need to be addressed, but rising college prices, health care, and the plight of the elderly are not particularly new issues and will not magically dissapate with Obama.

Blame the Unions, they shot down Nixon's universal health care plan.

I believe I said you were a Texas style Libertarian.


No, but it was his tax and economic policies and the Republican Greenspan's lowering of the Fed rate into the basement to keep Bush and the Republicans from sinking with their corporatist policies and running of the Country.

And while some of you are playing the GDP shell game, remember how much deficit spending we are currently involved in because of an irresponsible and illegal war.

As for Afghanistan, just cause it isn't always in the news doesn't mean it is "relatively" quiet.

Now, let us see what is up with the grim Reeper Convention and Gustav & Hanna. Could be interesting.

Perfect answer coming from someone born in '81. You're so versed in Life oh wise one.

Do you have something to counter my claim that these are not new problems or is your vast repetoir of wrinkly wisdom that you have acquiried through the years limited to attacks on people's age?

Funny .. because Atlanta has around 70,000 to 80,000 Katrina evacuees. Have any crime increases there been blamed on former Katrina residents?

Funnier still, I typed in "Katrina Victims Blamed For Crime" into google just out of blanket curosity, and Texas was the ONLY State that came up.
Houston must be special, or some of the people there under a sever case of xenophobia.

Indeed: City ...

Maybe you're right, I don't.

Could it be because I worked 22 years for the same employer? Maybe it's because my profession offered full medical coverage for me and my family? Or that, even in retirement, I receive very affordable health care coverage for me and my family ($600 per year)? I guess I could bitch that my pension is not high enough to allow me not to work, but that is more a matter of my lifestyle (past and present) than my pension.

I'm sure I can also come up with some very sad personal; stories, but I'm sure I can come up with some very good ones too.

How will Obama's plans change the situation of your brother and his family?

We were the closest major city and the easist to get through, as I understand we got those with least. But are you denying the statistcs I posted? Was the fact that 20% of the murders in 2006 involved a katritian a fabricated fact or just some insane statistical abberation?

Also, Houston isn't a state

I take no position on the Katrina refugees discussion, but did find at least one link with regards to Atlanta:

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/14271910/detail.html

Eurovol- Bush's tax policy didn't really have anything to do with the subprime mess. The tax policy most tied to the real estate mania earlier this decade was signed into law by Bill Clinton. The policy of raising homeownership that the Bush Administration pursued is more of a factor, but that policy actually began with the Clinton Administration, AFAIK.

Eurovol, I know that for you and other partisan Democrats everything bad is reflextively blamed on Bush. It's much more complicated than that.

Compared to other large cities ... Atlanta, New York, Chicago, Philly...all places displaced Katrina residents fled to, Houston seems to be the only city that wants to kick out evacuees. Last I checked in the US, a person could live (displaced or not) whereever they choose to.
What I am saying is that crime statistics can be misleading and suspect, especially if just one particular group is targeted and nowhere else is this phenomena occuring.
Like I say, Houston caught a case of something. Thank goodness other host cities haven't caught it.

The article is nice, now if you had actually read it ... you'll come across this:


Three individuals hardly count as an entire population of victims of Katrina. Around 1 million or so wasn't it? I believe the headline to be misleading at best.

I never claimed they should be denied the right to live there, I was only commented on the effects of the relocation.


Houston got the largest quantity of the refugees as well and has a different relationship due to its proximity to Louisiana. I'll accept there could be something suspect about the crime statistics, although you would need to be more specific to than the statement that statistics can be misleading, and will entertain any theories as to an alternative explanation of why 20% of the murders in the city involved a Katrina refugee. Until someone has put forth a convincing alternative, I will probably make the obvious correlation.

I only said that I had found a link and I also said I was not taking a position on that topic; however, it seems you conveniently ignored the first part of the article:


Which hardly pertains solely to three individuals. Furthermore, Atlanta only got something like 80,000 of the Katrina refugees, so it would make sense to consider the crimes committed in all cities that took the refugees, not just Atlanta. Of course (no one denies this) most of the Katrina refugees were good, law-abiding people. However, it is quite possible that a disproportionate number of them were/are not.

Yes it did and you know it. It forced Greenspan's hand on the subprime Fed rate cuts. He warned about it when he warned about unfunded tax cuts. The only thing that can be tied to the late '90's were the downward pressure on housing prices that always follows a housing boon. It was the fucking low rates that turned the pressured market into a subprime disaster. The Fed rate should never have been allowed to go that low. It artificially pumped the market up in support of wrongheaded policies.

Looks like Pawlenty is out. So much for rumors. Romney looks to also be out out out in California. I am still going with a Florida connection (or even an Ohio one since he is in Dayton). Without those two, McCain has no chance whatsoever.

If this is true, McCain is going after the oil!

I don't have time to give you a complete lesson, but Greenspan endorsed the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, plus the Fed began its loosening cycle before Bush was even inaugurated. Did it let too much liquidity loose? Yes, but if not for the pro-ownership policies, i.e., a massive loosening of lending standards, the change in housing cap gains taxation in 1997 (which revalued all housing) institutions dumb enough to buy some of this subprime mortgage-backed debt buyers and lenders willling to lie about income and arrange reckless loans. i.e., pure and simple greed, there would have been no subprime mess of that scale and the additional liquidity would have flowed into other asset classes. What you need to learn is that the bond market would have punished US Treasurys and pushed up long-term borrowing rates like crazy if it thought that the tax cuts had ravaged the federal government's long-term fiscal position.

I don't know why you fixate on the tax cuts (which included very helpful cuts on capital taxation) other than the fact they were pushed by Republicans.

I don't know what you mean by this:


I can tell you the previous bottom in residential housing in real terms occurred circa 1995. There was, AFAIK, no downward pressure on home prices when the economy slowed down in 2001, which was unusual.

Finally, I don't know what you mean by "subprime rate cuts" but subprime loans began well before 2001.

I can tell you there was downward pressure on the housing market and Greenspan DID NOT endorse the tax cuts. I watched the damn hearings and he said plan and clear, FUND THEM OR DON'T DO IT!

Subprime rates were not big in the '90s and definitely not for housing. Most of it was introductory rates on credit cards and that started in the '80's. It was the boon on those types of loans for houses that was fed by the Fed rate cuts where the problem came in (they more than tripled). Public debt has doubled since Bush took office and no GDP smoke and mirrors shell game will mask the fact that real people are suffering!

Eurovol, don't have a pulmonary, please.

I would be more than happy to look at the actual text of the Greenspan comments if you post one. For now, I'll settle for this:


I know you have been here in Germany since circa 1997, but maybe you have heard a lot of people who took out subprime loans were able to refinance them to fixed rates. That said, I would never take out an adjustable-rate loan or advise anyone else to do so.

This table gives you some idea about the prevalance of adjustable rate mortgage subprime loans prior to 2005 (note 1994 was the top year for non-jumbo mortgages and 1994 and 2000 the top two for jumbo mortgages in percentage terms):
http://www.informaworld.com/ampp/image?pat...0003g.gif#F0003

Bush didn't make anyone take out a subprime loan, lie about their income, etc. Time for you to get real, eurovol.

As for "downward pressure on the housing market" I suggest you tell me exactly when there was downward pressure on the housing market (prior to 2006) and we'll look at the Case-Shiller indexes to see if that was the case.

moctoj2 and others might be interested to know that leading up to the main event last night, there was testimony in the stadium from several "everyday American" speakers who told various stories about why they were supporting Obama. A woman whose family had been bankrupted by health care bills when her husband got sick and consequently lost his job and health insurance. (She said she has voted Republican in every election, but she can't afford to do it again.) A woman who lost her home and business in Hurricane Katrina. A Detroit man in the steelworker's union who has seen jobs dry up. Etcetera. Obama riffed on those stories a little in his speech - those people mentioned by him had just been at the podium.

There's no question that middle-class families have taken a big economic hit in the past 20 years, accelerated in the past 8. There's no question that government policies can be strengthened and/or enacted to help shore up some of the pitfalls. That was one of Obama's big points last night. Whether he can do it or not is a big question mark, but when the other guy isn't even going to try, then it's really not going to happen. I liked that Obama acknowledged Bill Clinton's accomplishments as president last night; I feel that up to now, too many people have dismissed them because they didn't support Hillary.

Funny how the post barely covers this part of his speech and subsequent questioning. It was quite informative and contentious.

cinzia: Saw some of those people...truly heartbreaking but Barney Smith got the best laugh:

You've missed the point eurovol, which is that you think anything any Republican does/did is bad and you bizarrely claim the tax cuts caused the subprime problems. IMHO, the tax cuts on capital should have been phased in along with income tax cuts at the bottom and middle of the income scale, with ones further up the scale subject to further developments. BTW, if $5 trillion in surpluses was really expected, larger tax cuts would have been in order than the ones that were actually passed.

BTW, I would suggest that those who want to see an expansion of the welfare state in the US take note that in Germany the tax load falls less heavily on the wealthy than the current US system decried by eurovol.

Refugees?? Or simply displaced victims of a natural disaster?

So am I to believe that they couldn't find one person in America to go up there and say "well, I'm doing pretty good, Just got a raise, paid of my credit card, can afford my house payment, have good health insurance, am pretty happy, but am still voting for Obama."

But seriously, Is Obama going to open a steel mill? Is he going to replace all homes and businesses lost in a Natural disaster (Didn't she have insurance? Has she even tried to re-open her business? if not why not?) I understand how a national healthcare plan would allow that family to pay the high medical expenses, but how would it help if the primary income earner loses their job? Does Obamas healthcare plan include income replacement if you're sick?

Don't get me wrong, I see the tragedy for these people, but everyone has tragedy in their life. Like someone said earlier, even in the best of times you can find someone that has a tragic story of how nobody in the Government helps them. Look around Germany, there are plenty here.

By the way, CNN is Speculating that McCain will choose Sarah Palin, the Governer of Alaska as his running mate.
EDIT: NBC just reported that selection as fact. Interesting...

Sarah Palin???WTF???

Not speculation anymore - CNN just flashed that Sarah Palin is, indeed, John McCain's choice for VP candidate.

OH SHIT!

Who's going to be the first Obama supporter to say she is not qualified experienced enough?