Will Scotland be independent in ten years?

So, Scotland has the SNP in government -committed to a 2010 referendum on independence.

Now Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander has come out in favour of a referendum even sooner (much to Calamity Brown's dismay)

I have to admit that though being Labour, I am warming to indepoendence by the minute. What do other scots on these board think? And what about the other Brits?

Its one of those things that its difficult to see right now whether its a masterstroke by Bendy Wendy or if its a huge own goal.

The problem is (as identified by the other Unionist parties) that by making it a Labour V SNP thing while Labour are in the doldrums shes taking a huge risk. But the SNP have been fairly canny about the whole thing, if they leave it until 2010 they have two options for stirring up the debate. Firstly any disagreements with Westminster will probably do them wonders at the next Scottish elections, possibly increasing their hold on the parliament. Also if the other parties refuse a vote, then it becomes the main issue for the next election, with SNP saying they were going to offer it and let you decide but the big bad Unionists were too scared...

The problem for the Unionist is that they dont want it put to the vote because it may well pass, but at the same time they know refusing it would bolster SNP figures.

For the record I think there will be an independent Scotland sometime in the early part of this century.

EDIT: Whatever happens expect a huge campaign of disinformation over the next few months from both sides, though especially from Westminster

Besides pride, history and politics, what is the benefit for and against this?

The 3 Lefties won't allow it to happen

Aside from that? Isnt "politics" just about every main reason?

Come to think of it, that ginger guy with the brown cord jacket he always wears wasn't too keen either

well I agree

support for independence is low at the moment but polls have shown it to be a volatile issue swinging up and down for the last two years.

I have to admit though that I have been very impressed with the deft stratgy the minority SNP government have played. They could indeed swing it their way by 2010.

However, it has to be noted that the Calman body will have reported by then and may concede additional powers to the parliament and there is no gyuarantee that Westminster will play ball. It is within Westminster's remiot to pass enabling legislation for a Scottish referendum on Independence.

Bell the cat, do you remember the affect of Murphy's Law on the charter?

hmm, a few years ago it might have mattered whether Scotland was part of the UK. Devolution has taught us otherwise. The matters that hold us back are all in Westminster's remit and the funding arrangement and lack of tax raising powers create an ever deepending rift between scotland and the rest of the UK.

An independent Scotland within the EU on present projections would be wealthy and an assertive ally to the Nordic nations.

I think the SNP can hold a referendum if the Socttish Parliament decides, its just that its a "consultative" referendum I think, but imagine the fallout if Westminster ignored the result.

well quite.

Which is why it is possible Westminster may in fact set up their own referendum to preempt it and choose a wording that will put of everyone but the true diehards.

As those of us who can remember 1979 know, wording of the referendum can fuck up the whole shebang and Brown may just realise that is the only card he can play

any country that basis their entire financial projections on a limited oil supply needs a kick up the arse.
arent you ashamed?

ffs id move to england if scotland became independent, simply embarrassing.

The reduced birthrate contributed to the forcasts for the 2007 1st edition of the Ammendment of the Constitutional Changes to the Synopsis. This was later rejected by all parties

I have mixed feelings. You've previously expressed the opinion that Scotland would be financially better off. I've seen reports for and against.

Scotland has it's own feel but I'm never convinced that much more than some of the regions like Yorkshire. Now an independent Yorkshire is a good idea.

As an singular nation within a large European Union it could well work. Scotland will not get the benefits other new lands got in the past but it is in a far stronger position than Ireland or some of the earlier entries were.

Have you come on to the wrong thread or have I missed a post which might explain what you're on about?

An independent Yorkshire... Geoff Boycott being a huge supporter of this this particular campagn, is not the way forward to ridding Scotland of their equally difficult to understand accents

Yorkshire is a county of England. Making it Independent would be absurdly costly.

Scotland by contrast has institutional separation from England and its own unicameral parliament. Separating it from the UK would therefore be relatively painless (if both sides decided to cooperate).

I suppose the issue comes down to whether the godAwful Brown regime would block it out of spite or the incoming Cameron circus would block it out of misunderstood unionism.

Another thing to factor in is the possibility of a Westminster election, especially if the Tories win.

A Tory government down south and an SNP govt in the north would be quite an abrasive mix.

englishrose, I daresay there is meaning behind your contributions but it is not really being conveyed ...

Oh OK - just back from the pub?

Oh Bell the cat, praise you as you are so eloquent.

Oh Beardie, the Scots won't make it. THEY'll be the ones down the pub after the constitutional debates comes to an end

Actually I dont think anyone has a clue what you're on about - you having come straight from the pub is about my best guess?

hmmmm

englishrose, what is the point you are trying to make? Really, I am genuinely interested. You have made a good few gobbledigook posts. Why not post something we can all engage with? I'm not saying that to be nasty - just it seems an awful waste of your time to post things that none of us can understand.

And yes come the witching hour the ides of March are but a pale imitation of the art of angling.

Wot like we are gonna have to rebuild Hadrian's wall to stop them picts coming accross and stealing our sheep. Why did they steal the sheep anyway? Why not the women?

have you seeen Northumbrian women?

I am Scottish descent. I wont name my clan name here but I make a point of wearing my tartan scarf.

"Scottish descent" - they're the worst!

I lost count when I was a student of the number of fellow undergraduates (who told me they had once had a Scottish nanny, or had eaten haggis by mistake, or were descended from Rob Roy through the Surrey branch) who believed they had some unique insight into the constitutional issue between Scotland and England. They invariably had very far from any insight at all.

Damn! And I was hoping to keep abreast of the politics by eating more Scotch Pies.

ewwwww, scotch pies . . . .

heart attack city

I'm actually reminded of the conversations I keep having with my estranged wife.

The way the tax codes work she's not doing so well in her base pay packet but I will pay her maintainance that more than covers it. Overall we are both better off remaining in an slightly uncomfortable financial union as we'd both be worse off it we did legally divorce.

Suddenly got a pang for a Berts Bar pie.

several thousand being sent down to manchester for the cream buns to gobble on next thursday during uefa cup final.
so yeah, hopefully.

Seriously, does Scotland consider itself viable alone?

If so, then good riddance frankly, the cost of running it more than offsets the oil that is BRITISH or AMERICAN or NORWEGIAN owned!

I would immediately ask for visa control into England, let's see how long it lasts.

Once we stop subsidising England it'll be fine. The problem will be the rump part of the UK getting used to that, but I'm sure we could negotiate some sort of alimony for a while to wean you off it.


I think you'd need to cede from the EU to allow that. The SNP plan is to stay within the EU.

You know it won't work, don't you?

Or are you that blind to the actual realities?

The oil that all the Scots keep quoting wasn't discovered or recovered wth Scottish money ffs!

I'd be interested to know of any predictions of Scottish GDP if independence actually happens.

A penny saved in London might be a penny spent in Brussels.
Once I ate haggis by accident.

You seem so certain?

Why?

I havent mentioned oil. Frankly if it brought independence I'd gladly give you the lot.

The current ones are here...

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statisti...my/GDP/Findings

The British government does not own Scottish oil and never has (although Tony Benn wanted it to at the time). Income has been generated through taxing the oil that is landed on the SCOTTISH mainland for processing (also Shetland) whether it comes from British, Norwegian or American companies. An independent Scotland with tax raising powers would be entitled to those revenues in the same way that Westminster currently is. Though most ecopnomists would caution that Scotland should not rely to heavily on that as an income if and when it does become independent.

I'm cautiously in favour, but I am concerned about the resiliance of the Scottish economy and the huge public sector employment levels and thus potential tax rises.

In the end, no matter what the SNP/Tory government get up to in the next 2 years, when it comes to the crunch, I think most Scots will say no to independence , but then should be offered more power in the the current devolved structure of government.

Bob mc D

I'amm for Scotland being independent - basically I think they should decide and it should be nothing to do with the English, Welsh, Irish. If thats what the Scots want then good for them - I'm a big fan of the place


Much as some Scots seem to like to think of themselves being somehow affiliated with the Nordic countries, it is far more similar in almost every way to the rest of the UK than to the Nordic countries


This is why I've always had a problem with the German tax system which in a way dissaudes equality by having this outdated system of joint taxation. A system that encourages people to marry (or stay married when they shouldn't) is somehow deeply wrong in my opinion. Individual taxation is by far the best system for promoting equality.
And is money really that important?

I'm not so sure. Support or not for independence has been very volatile over the last few years. With a Tory government elected in England I could see the SNP win the referendum and sue for independence.

But what about the bloated public sector?

If Oil turns out to be important to a viable Scotland, and presuming it will last/new field west of Scotland are found, why on earth would the UK government give this to Scotland? I'm not expecting any military intervention, but under no circumstances, if I were the Chancellor of the Exchequer, would i give such a valuable asset away. The UK, GB, throughout history, has never done the 'right' thing, only the actions best suited to the UK's self interest.

I think too much can be read into a 'bloated public sector' in an economy reliant on high value industries.

geographic location - of course it should belong to an independent Scotland, or are you suggesting that the UK government (will it then be renamed the DUK government - disunited kingdom) should also keep hold of the whisky distilleries and salmon farms?

which is why the UK government does not want scottish independence. It would be difficult to see how Westminster could retain any revenue raising rights from oil landed on scottish shores if scotland were independent.

whisky and salmon do not make as much as oil.
the falkland islands are not known for their geographic proximity to the isle of sicily, and there may be oil there too