TT logo
You are viewing a low-graphics version of this page. Click the headline to view full version:

Is global warming a scam?

Temperatures haven't risen since 1998

Toytown Germany > Discussion forum > Themes > International affairs
Pages: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
timezoner
QUOTE (cb6dba @ Apr 7 2008, 1:55 pm) *
Taxing more will not work quickly, if I have a petrol car the tax on petrol has to up a lot to justify me buying a whole new car to use alternative fuel.

And there is a problem with alternative fuel ,which alternative ? , look what they did to the bio diesel, they gave it a tax relief until 2010 ( EU )then realized it was a nice little earner and changed it in 2007 …result. - Bio diesel is almost the same price as normal diesel, and all these German companies who built bio diesel “refineries� are now importing the stuff from South American or god knows where. Really environmentally friendly
you can't win sad.gif
thefirelane
QUOTE (makkadman @ Apr 7 2008, 2:17 pm) *
Neither the quote nor the article was posted by me. Next time reading what you reply to, might help

I noticed that later, adding that both of you are being ridiculous... however, that too is irrelevant. My point being: your insistence I read the article is illogical because the article will not change the fact of what I am commenting on.

Clear enough?
makkadman
QUOTE (thefirelane @ Apr 7 2008, 1:45 pm) *
An engine under the heavy strain of rapid acceleration/deceleration against a constantly running engine... all not adjusted on a per passenger basis.

From what I've seen of modern planes, on a per passenger adjusted basis they use less energy than an automobile.

QUOTE (thefirelane @ Apr 7 2008, 2:23 pm) *
... I read the article is illogical because the article will not change the fact of what I am commenting on.

from the article:

QUOTE
Airlines compensate for their high fuel bills by packing passengers into their aircraft, but, per mile, powering a jet uses almost as much energy, and emits almost as much climate-changing carbon dioxide, as each passenger would use driving alone in an average car..


QUOTE
Air travel also has a disproportionate short-term effect on climate: Carbon dioxide has the same effects on the climate no matter when or where it is injected into the atmosphere. But other aircraft emissions-such as nitrogen oxides-have potent, climate-changing effects because of the elevation at which they are released.

Just for clarification, I still don't believe in the AGW scam, but I do believe in the polluting effect of airplanes. I continue to believe that one should read stuff before replying to it.
thefirelane
QUOTE (makkadman @ Apr 7 2008, 2:40 pm) *
I continue to believe that one should read stuff before replying to it.

FFS. I did read what I was replying to.

I was specifically replying to the quote he posted. I was pointing out the utter stupidity of the statistic posted. How many more times must I repeat that?
timezoner
calm down old chap it's not as if the world depended on you reading something wink.gif
makkadman
All right TFL let's just stop this subtopic, it isn't even that important. and i guess both of us have made our points...
How about we now let history be our judge! wink.gif
timezoner
now shake hands
makkadman
TFL and makkadman give each other a tearful hug, and decide to bury their differences... until the next post
makkadman
The BBC news story quoted in the first post, was altered and edited as in the original form, as given by the World meteorological association, it was damaging to the theory of anthropogenic global warming. This highlights how the picture the average person gets is one sided due the tremendous clout of AGW proponents resulting in suppression of any facts that cast doubt on theories of global warming. If the debate is really settled then why does any contrary fact need to be suppressed?

LINK to the email exchange between BBC and Jo Abbess

QUOTE
It would appear that the result of the email exchange between the activist and the reporter was that the BBC changed its story. In particular instead of reporting the story as received from the World Meteorological Organisation, the BBC modified the story as demanded by the activist who was concerned that in its original form it supported 'the skeptics' correct observation that there has been no warming since 1998.
bluedave
I've left my car running outside the hotel and am spraying antiperspirant around the room madly in the hope that global warming will take effect before tomorrow morning and i won't have to defrost my car.
astro_rabbit
that's a selfish attitude
djgrazy
It's official! Global Warming is cancelled, long live Climate Change !

LINK
Exile
Yes, multi-billion dollar corporate behemoths and their low friends in high places are no match for the assembled might of a few lefties and treehuggers.

Don't believe the hype.
Mapleleafdude
Great link Dycrazy

I really love this part about foot in mouth.

QUOTE
"A great many founts of authority, from the Royal Society to the UN, most heads of government along with countless captains of industry, learned professors, commentators and journalists will be profoundly embarrassed. Let us hope it is a prolonged and chastening experience.

After joining a GW organization I decided to join the Flat earth society too. These people really know what they're doing biggrin.gif
makkadman
From the same link:

The IPCC models assumed water vapour formed clouds at high altitudes that lead to further warming. The Aqua satellite observations and Spencer's analysis show water vapour actually forms clouds at low altitudes that lead to cooling.

Furthermore, Spencer shows the extra rain that falls from these clouds cools the underlying oceans, providing a second negative feedback to negate the CO2 warming.

This has struck the alarmists like a thunderbolt, especially as the lead author of the IPCC chapter on feedback has written to Spencer agreeing that he is right!

There goes the alarmist neighbourhood!

The climate is not highly sensitive to CO2 warming because water vapour is a damper against the warming effect of CO2.
cb6dba
All the people in the 'know' know the world is flat with a rim around the edge.

It makes no sence for the world to be round, all the water would just fall off the botton wink.gif
Bipa
Here's my favourite quote from the article mentioned:

QUOTE
Among the better educated, the sceptical cast of mind that is the basis of empiricism will once again be back in fashion. The delusion that by recycling and catching public transport we can help save the planet will quickly come to be seen for the childish nonsense it was all along.
HellesAngel
Ok, so let's go with that hypothesis that global warming/climate change is based on flawed research and invalid assumptions, but does it mean every person of the six billion on the planet can drive a truck with a 6 litre engine? No, it does not. I've argued this point before that the whole argument about global warming/climate change is entirely moot because for any number of reasons we must avoid consuming more resources than we need, and keep pollution to a minumum. Remember acid rain anyone?
djgrazy
based on the fact that developing nations were using too much of what has become a scarce commodity, it stands to reason that profit could be behind this scam. If the leaders that be, can convince the world that we need to "cut back" while all along the prices per barrell of black stuff rockets the long-term effect means they get many more bucks for their produce.
HellesAngel
And having read the previous link, while all the effects of global warming don't sound fun I'm not sure I like the sound of:

QUOTE
We live on a benign planet - except when it occasionally gets damned cold.

Also here the quoted journalist also lets himself down a bit:

QUOTE
The delusion that by recycling and catching public transport we can help save the planet will quickly come to be seen for the childish nonsense it was all along.

There's not much childish, or nonsense, about either recycling or public transport and both play a critical role in preserving the planet as an environment that's clean and pleasant to live in. Whilst perhaps he is right that they won't save the planet [from global warming/climate change] it still makes them no less important.
Bipa
There is a difference between trying to conserve non-renewable energy sources to make them last longer, and trying to avoid using them because of any climate side-effects. Pollution is yet a third and separate argument. Folks tend to get them all mixed up for some reason. I am all in favour of trying to create less pollution and less waste. It makes financial sense at the most basic level - my health and my pocket! wink.gif If I can breathe clean air and save some money by requiring less oil and electricity for my daily living, then that's great! But I am still not convinced that making huge sacrifices in lifestyle will do anything except seriously annoy most people and bring down our quality of life.

I don't drive a 6 litre engine. Not many people do so that is a pretty silly argument. But I see no need to give up my "normal" car and spend two hours travelling by buses to buy a loaf of bread and some milk. It doesn't make any sense when I can drive my car and be there in 15 minutes. So the trade-off is either two hours by buses or half an hour by car travel time. Doesn't my time enter into the cost/benefit equation at all? And given my slipped disc and bad back, I'm not able to walk long distances with heavy grocery bags anyway.

So although I remain highly sceptical about the causes of global warming/cooling/change, and don't feel that the cause and effect on global climate is still well understood, there are other factors at play in my decisions on energy use. I conserve energy to make it last longer and save money. It is as simple as that.

Life is complicated enough. No need to make it even more difficult and stressful.
Mapleleafdude
Bipa has stated was has often been said by most of us skeptics here and not been understood by some "believers" of the climate change theory.

If I can go where I want and not spend huge amounts of money on gas please tell me and I will be the first to do it.

Dont make me vacation in Hannover cause it's such an ugly place and let me keep flying far away and get to know the world.

Not letting people travel is a huge step backwards and makes these eco-terrorists no better than communists that keep there people locked up for there "own good".
Exile
The Pope: "Look here Copernicus, you would have a much better reception for your ideas if it doesn't effect my lifestyle"
makkadman
I wonder if it wouldn't be the Pope espousing global warming today. This has seriously become a religious thread, and anyone who points to the problems with Anthropogenic Global Warming scenarios, a heretic.
@Exile have you actually bothered to read through the thread, to know why Global Warming is being questioned?

EDIT: Turns out, the Pope has confirmed Global Warming to be true. Good for the believers, I say, and I can finally feel Copernicus-like in my skepticism. LINK
FirstCitizen
QUOTE (Mapleleafdude @ Apr 9 2008, 6:18 pm) *
Not letting people travel is a huge step backwards and makes these eco-terrorists no better than communists that keep there people locked up for there "own good".

I can't be bothered to read through the whole topic to find an example of these eco terrorists who want to stop people travelling so maybe you could point out the example if one was given?
Exile
To be a true sceptic you need to be as sceptical about the professed counter evidence as your are about the evidence otherwise you are just another "true believer" only worshipping a different religion.
Mapleleafdude
U mean theres nothing wrong with flying to your destination in an airplane if you are a defender of the GW belief?

Plus talk of car free weekends in Germany is a huge green party issue!!!
Bipa
Ok then... I have finally figured it out. It isn't global warming that is the problem, nor is it global cooling. And it isn't climate change, either.

The problem is that the seasons have switched positions!

That's right folks... Spring and Winter decided to switch places. It is as simple as that. Or for those who like a more complicated answer, they are alternating every other week. Mother Nature is having a huge giggle at confusing the heck out of us mere mortals, and that's why I woke up this morning to see everything covered in deep, fresh, clean snow. ohmy.gif

If it runs true to form, it should be warm next week blink.gif

peterjohn2
hey dj some of your points make sense and have to be respected ( some not all) but its the way that you force feed your opinions which is causing people to react.. we all have problems mate...
All the ice glaciers have melted down to disturbing levels .. mount kilamanjero in kenya has changed drastically...the weather is acting kinda odd in the last few years.. and weather we like it or not we should not take such signals for granted that its just a phase we are going through... after all the earths atmosphere is what keeps us alive... "some things just speak for themselves".. and yes the governments are maybe taking advantage of that..possibly.. but thats what governments do when they are under pressure financially.. they create.
Taking things for granted is a seriously very unwise thing to do!!! and we have more than enough resourses to investigate this phenomenon until we know exactly where we stand.But until we know where we stand each and everyone of us has a right to adjust.. because if we dont adjust before we know where we stand .it might be too late.
djgrazy
The problem is PJ, experts are suggesting that some of the "greener" alternatives are actually worse for the environment, like biofuels that cost more in energy to extract/create than their mineral based alternatives. Global warming is a non-starter, we now refer to climate change as the indicators haven't quite been indicating the indicators expected through the indication. Capeesh? rolleyes.gif
makkadman
The issue of snow on top of Mount Kilimanjaro has been addressed earlier in the thread, snow was receding from 1920s on, even in periods of global average temperature decline.
The issue of "climate change" is a complicated one, which however relies on simplistic assumptions, and gross exaggeration in its more popular understanding, examples of which can be found in this thread.

Climate change is used as a shorthand for climate variations caused due to human activities.
The term "climate" as the IPCC uses it means the "weather averaged over a long period, typically 30 years". The weather as we know cannot be predicted more than a week in advance. The only thing that is predictable about the weather is variation. The long term variations of the weather at the global level have many known causes like ocean currents, salinity, regional differences in temperature,etc. which through their complex interaction, form the weather in a particular region. All this is famously summarized in the so called butterfly effect. This illustrates how even a small change in the parameters of climate models can lead to wildly different outcomes.

Usually these complex interactions can be theorized only after the fact, as for example decline in temperatures caused due to la nina, but the arrival of an el nina event cannot be predicted. The IPCC now suggests that human activities have led to an increase in some greenhouse gases, which will lead to an increase in "global average temperatures". The evidence is that temperatures over the last 10 years have not risen, and appear to be influenced mostly by large scale weather influences like el nino and la nina.

The problem of course is that none of the models can be relied upon to work with any degree of accuracy, simply because as the "butterfly effect"(first observed in relation to the weather) suggests, missing even a minor variable means that the outcome will be wildly different. Approximations just do not work in relation to the weather.

The popular understanding of climate change is the higher the production of greenhouse gases, the higher the temperature, the more the variation in weather and/ or climate. The IPCC report only suggests that the "unexplained" variation in global average temperatures is likely to be due to human activities. There is a much larger variation that can be explained in terms of other weather events.

And the only mechanism through which a human influence on the climate is suggested is through an increase in global average temperatures, which would trigger other weather events. The global average temperature rise is nowhere in sight. Which means the local and regional climate variations cannot be explained due to human production of greenhouse gases.

What it amounts to is that yes there is climate change, but that change in weather trends(climate) is completely natural. The "unexpected" change, which is supposedly man-made change is unquantifiable and there is little evidence that human generation of some greenhouse gases (excluding the most important, water vapour) can explain these variations.

As Carl Sagan said: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
djgrazy
QUOTE (makkadman @ Apr 17 2008, 12:40 pm) *
As Carl Sagan said: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

Fear not, the "experts" are working hard to get that evidence.

See HERE
peterjohn2
i respect your point of view makkadam... nevertheless when in doubt.. take action.. caution insight and respect for mother nature... one has no choice other than to investigate and investigate in a serious way... you do agree i hope... i mean neville chamberlain said the same thing about Nazi Germany ( this is just an example of taken things for granted and by no means disrespect for your insight)... people cant be so single minded now about what they think might happen ... we have the resources to investigate and we also have the capability to change and only a foolish person would sweep it under the carpet and leave it there. call me a pragmatist.
Exile
Different perspective:

http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11462
canaryman
This is an interesting story about a tree, well I found it interesting.http:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtm...7/eatree117.xml
djgrazy
The Bovine Excrement Meter went off the scale with this one...

LINK

In light of recent results showing that the Earth ISN'T actually getting warmer at the rates anticipated, in fact not at all...the scientific elite have now given us their explanation, we're experiencing a lull where the Earth is cancelling out the effects of our pollution, this is forecast to change in 2015 though so keep paying those carbon taxes.

These guys can't even forecast the weather for tomorrow, yet we're to believe the next 7 years are known to them?

I call Bullshit.
Villager
gee, if you had read the article, you would find:

QUOTE
Noel Keenlyside of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel, Germany[...] stressed that the results were just the initial findings from a new computer model of how the oceans behave over decades and it would be wholly misleading to infer that global warming, in the sense of the enhanced greenhouse effect from increased carbon emissions, had gone away.

this is the basic problem that you keep denying, the greenhouse gas effect exists, Elvis doesn't
makkadman
First we get to know that temperatures haven't risen in the past decade, and actually declined at times, with a projected decline this year as well. Now we get projections that: Next decade 'may see no warming' (BBC article)

This is the current title of the report and it is likely to be edited and altered to bring it in line with Anthropogenic Global Warming projections too (BBC article, not the Nature article it quotes) as happened in the case of an earlier article (see previously in this thread).

QUOTE
The Earth's temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade, as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase, scientists have predicted.

A new computer model developed by German researchers, reported in the journal Nature, suggests the cooling will counter greenhouse warming.

...The key to the new prediction is the natural cycle of ocean temperatures called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which is closely related to the warm currents that bring heat from the tropics to the shores of Europe.

The cause of the oscillation is not well understood, but the cycle appears to come round about every 60 to 70 years.

Imagine the payoff of knowing with some certainty what the next 10 years hold in terms of temperature and precipitation
Professor Michael Schlesinger

It may partly explain why temperatures rose in the early years of the last century before beginning to cool in the 1940s.

"One message from our study is that in the short term, you can see changes in the global mean temperature that you might not expect given the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)," said Noel Keenlyside from the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University.

..."We have to take into account that there are uncertainties in our model; but it does suggest a plateauing of temperatures, and then a continued rise," said Dr Keenlyside.

'No distraction'

The projection does not come as a surprise to climate scientists, though it may to a public that has perhaps become used to the idea that the rapid temperature rises seen through the 1990s are a permanent phenomenon.

"We've always known that the climate varies naturally from year to year and decade to decade," said Richard Wood from the UK's Hadley Centre, who reviewed the new research for Nature.

FULL ARTICLE

This once again shows that natural variations in climate supersede anything caused by mechanism suggested by the IPCC, which is based mostly on CO2 and CH4 emissions. This makes fear-mongering estimates on the lines of An Inconvenient Truth, etc. even more suspect. The "climate" is simply not very predictable with any degree of accuracy, especially over periods longer than a decade, as it is an open-ended dynamic, non-linear system and even minor variables that are miscalculated or overlooked would result in vastly differing and vastly inaccurate predictions. And the longer the period of forecast, the greater (and exponential) the increase in this inaccuracy.

The IPCC which claims to have an accurate global temperature prediction for a 100 years, has been inaccurate for at least one-fifth of that period. None of the models could include natural and well known phenomena like El Nino or La Nina and were unable to forecast their effects. The effects of sea salinity and water vapour(most important greenhouse gas) have to be ignored in models of global temperature increase as their effect is well known to be non-linear and not amenable to modelling.
djgrazy
QUOTE (Villager @ May 1 2008, 9:39 am) *
the greenhouse gas effect exists.

Really, and the Earth has increased temperature by how much in the last 10 years?
djgrazy
and yet there are some on this board like villager who believe that we'll all be cooking in 10-20 years.

LMFAO!
makkadman
Villager is probably not the only one, here is one of the classics:

Over 4.5 Billion people could die from Global Warming-related causes by 2012 published frontpage in 'The Canadian', "Canada's new socially progressive and cross-cultural newspaper", in 2007.

That's right in 4 years 3/4th of us are going to be dead.

Some articles counter to this "Classic"

Reason magazine

Real Climate
space
@Villager.
If you did your research you would see that CO2 peaks came 800yrs after the last hot age, not before. Carbonfootprintsmootprint. It's all a bunch of scheisse. What does the greenhouse gas effect mean? It means that if you have a greenhouse (closed environment) and one injects a gas into it that one will have an major effect in the closed environment. I agree. But it has nothing to do with an open environment.
Take care and have fun while I try to increase my carbon footprint by base jumping off mountains in Italy.
space
Villager
I must at least concede that DJ's link this morning (Global warming may 'stop') was a legimate news source (Telegraph), perhaps a change in his medication? The misleading title was the cause of DJ's enthusiasm. In any case, here is a bit of news that went by unoticed, the death of one of the central figures in climate modelling:

QUOTE
Many of you will have seen the obituaries (MIT, NYT) for Ed Lorenz, who died a short time ago. Lorenz is most famous scientifically for discovering the exquisite sensitivity to initial conditions (i.e. chaos) in a simple model of fluid convection, which serves as an archetype for the weather prediction problem. He is most famous outside science for the 'The Butterfly Effect' described in his 1972 paper "Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?".

the linked website, RealClimate.org, is required reading for anyone seriously interested in the political aspects of the Climate Debate.
makkadman
Oh! I really missed this news. Lorenz was one of my heroes for his beautiful work on Chaos and Complexity, and for the brilliantly elegant Lorenz attractor

End of an era.

Incidentally for fans of AGW (Man-made Global Warming) who are willing to understand one of its major criticisms, his classic paper Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow is an excellent place to start.
Exile
Ah! now I see models that predict no global warning - Good Models. Models that predict global warning - Bad Models (part of a conspiracy). Science made easy.
It may also not be that easy to increase your carbon footprint anyway.
Villager
@makkadam: yup, I wanted to use the word 'hero' as well, but my understanding of his work is second-hand. My background is mathematical economics and stats. I regret not having taken more courses in meteorology and physical geography, these are exciting times for these fields.
@exile: great link! a little bit on the alarmist side, but yes, petroleum is an essential part of the world economy, present in all products, from your computer keyboard on which I am typing, packaging, cosmetics, agricultural production, and transport. There are some technological advances in the pipeline which can keep our civilization on life support for awhile, but the long-term destination is abundantly clear. It was fun while it lasted!
makkadman
@Exile: If that's all the sense you can make of my posts, then you should believe The Canadian and prepare for the 75% chance of your death in the next 4 years.

As I mention, all models are inaccurate, but exponentially inaccurate with time. So a model with say 70% accuracy over the next 10 years, may have about 10% accuracy over a period of 50 years. This is due to the larger number of unforeseen events that are possible over a longer period of time, vastly decreasing the usefulness of any model.

What we are talking about is plus/minus 10 years from now, the period with the greatest accuracy. We have historical data for the last 10 years which does not demonstrate increasing temperatures due to human activities and shows instead that the greatest effects are due to natural phenomena. Models for the next 10 years are probably more accurate than those for the next 100 years.

Read some of the links I offer, rather than trash tabloids to know the "truth". The good/bad dichotomy is in your head, not in scientific debates over AGW.

BTW are you trying to be funny or is this a Freudian slip exposing your alarmism, or is this a "divine warning" perhaps?

QUOTE (Exile @ May 1 2008, 12:51 pm) *
Ah! now I see models that predict no global warning - Good Models. Models that predict global warning - Bad Models (part of a conspiracy).
Exile
@makkadman - Yes it was a smelling mistake. Clearly you see things in my posts that I haven't written.
Bipa
I heard on the news that the Antarctic is getting colder with increased ice coverage. Wasn't sure if perhaps I had misunderstood the German report, so I've googled for more. Looks like it's true! Maybe we should just move the polar bears south? unsure.gif

Antarctic Deep Sea Gets Colder
QUOTE (ScienceDaily @ Apr 23 2008)
The Antarctic deep sea is getting colder, which might stimulate the circulation of the oceanic water masses. This is the first result of the Polarstern expedition of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association that has just ended in Punta Arenas/Chile. At the same time satellite images from the Antarctic summer have shown the largest sea-ice extent on record.
LittleSprite
QUOTE (Bipa @ May 1 2008, 3:35 pm) *
Maybe we should just move the polar bears south?

They'd just eat up all the penguins. sad.gif
Pages: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
You are viewing a low fidelity version of this page. Click to view the full page.