Predictions for effects of the smoking ban - Munich

Hello all,

So the ‘debate’ about the pro/cons about the smoking ban has long since deteriorated. Each side has simply intrenched itself into ideological idiocy with unrealistic disaster/utopian scenarios. This is boring. The thread is huge, and I really won’t bother later to look through it and see who was “right�.

So I made this thread. Keep it simple, if you have disagreements, or comments, please post here. The only thing we want here is predictions. So we can scroll through and see who nailed it. For clarity, please write a prediction on what will happen, or how things will be during the following intervals:

1) Morning of January First (ie. when people are out partying after midnight)
2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect
3) 1 year after ban in effect
4) 5 years after ban in effect.

I’ll write a full post later when I have time, but here’s an example for #1:

1) Morning of January First
People will most likely not immediately snuff out their cigarettes at midnight, and compliance will be low. There will be a case of an anti-smoker confronting a smoker, leading to a kafuffle. This will be grossly exaggerated for the usual infotainment purposes by Bild/TZ but not much will come of it. (ok, perhaps this won't happen exactly that night, but I'm betting on 0-3 months)

The non-smokers will still find something to bitch and whine about.

Same as in Scotland. They predicted riots. No one did fuck all - they just stuck to the rules and smoked in the streets. Here they fucking love rules so it will be quiet as a church mouse.

Germans are so daft I reckon the smokers probably voted for the ban, just so they could have another rule to obey.

25% of dry cleaners in Germany will go bust as people don't need to clean their suits so often.

Something wrong with my brain. I read that the first time as "CLEAN THEIR SLUTS SO OFTEN", and was thinking that actually I prefer my sluts dirty.

Cross over from the cleaning up of Amsterdam thread perhaps?

All the smokers will decide that if you are gonna get nicked for smoking anyway, you might as well go the whole hog and smoke massive fat reefers wherever you go. As a result, sales of pringles and chocolate cookies will totally go through the roof, and all the non smokers will start smoking joints aswell, when they see how awesome it is for all the smokers to stumble about their lives in a gently stoned oblivion. Nobody will have a clue whats going on, so nobody will remember there is any law, then somebody will decide that they fancy smoking something, but haven't got any weed left, so they'll light a cigarette. We'll all be back where we started, but nobody will care or winge, because they'll be totally blitzed, and probably standing about giggling at a dog in street. Awesome.

Same thing will happen as it has in the UK, a few bar owners will ignore the ban...more fool them, ignoring the ban wont change the law, it will just put you out of business. Most bars will adhere to the ban. Smokers in the beginning will smoke their cigerettes in a more determined manner...you wont stop me smoking, no sir! Then after a while they'll realise it aint that bad and just smoke less. As for noise outside, I've never heard a group of smokers outdoors being overly noisy and honestly, how long does it really take you to smoke a fag? You'll all end up smoking less.

My predictions:

1) Morning of January First (ie. when people are out partying after midnight)

Absolutely nothing will happen. Patrons will be allowed to smoke until closing time, with the real bans starting when they reopen later on the 1st.

2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect

There will be numerous reports of noise, disgruntled pub owners and disgruntled tenants. Some pub owners and tennants will be accomodating, e.g. accept the new situation, or complain. Some locations, such as Kilian's, will suffer because smokers won't be allowed to congregate outside. The Bayerischer Landtag will do nothing.

3) 3- 12 Months after ban in effect

For those locations which have a higher occurance of people complaining, business will suffer. Some small locations will have to close, do to inability to meet both the smoking and noise requirements. Larger locales will suffer very little. However, Oktoberfest will be chaotic, as smokers will want to smoke, but have no place to go - and once they leave the tents, they won't be to able to get back in. The Bayerischer Landtag will finally notice that something might be wrong.

4) 1 year after ban in effect

After Oktoberfest, the Bayerischer Landtag puts a more sensible set of rules will be put in place, which allows for smokers, non-smokers, pub/restaurant owners and tennants to get along in relative harmony. But, by this time, some small locations will be closed, due to less business.

5) 5 years after ban in effect.

Nobody will remember what the fuss was about.

We're dealing with Germans. It'll be obeyed to the letter.

1) Morning of January First (ie. when people are out partying after midnight)

People will open champagne, drink it then use the bottles as a make shift artillery base. People tend to be outside at midnight anyways so if they smoke, nobody will give a shit.

2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect

People will do more sport, in an attempt to get fit and keep up their new years resolutions. Giving up smoking will probably be on that list.

3) 1 year after ban in effect

It will be new years again, so people will be outside at midnight and hence they'll be doing the whole artillery/street thing.

4) 5 years after ban in effect.

The super massive black hole at the center of our galaxy will have hiccoughed a giant wave of evil radiation across the entire milky way killing all life in the galaxy.

Quite a lot of small bars to close down. Beer prices to increase by more than normal in pubs and bars. Price of a Maß at the Wies'n to go up by more than normal.

A positive may be more people using deoderant due to pubs stinking. I have noticed lots of Germans don't seem to bother with it. Apparently a shower is good enough but in 30°+ you need some form of anti-perspirant. Or at least the people where I work often tend to smell a tad unpleasant in summer.

People already congregate outside Kilians? I dont see them having any problem.

The Don has a point there - I think the ban only affects tobacco products, not other dried plants.

1) Nobody will take any notice of the ban at midnight on 1st. They'll probably be drunk and won't remember/care. Bar owners won't want to kill the atmosphere. Besides that, the lawmakers have already stated that the law won't be enacted until after NYE celebrations.

2) In the first week or 2 of the ban, I think some attempt will be made to get smokers to go outside. Most will and it'll be fine during the day. Noise complaints will go up at night and there'll be some articles in the TZ, the AZ and Bild about people living near pubs who can't sleep anymore because of the noise. Pubs in commercial areas will be OK, but within a month those in residential areas will have had so much stress from neighbours and the police, that they will seek their own solutions which may range from banning smoking until 11pm and setting up a small smoking corner inside after that time, to completely flouting the law.

If the private club loophole stands, then you'll see no change to the current situation in pubs. Restaurants will force their patrons to smoke outside though but nobody will mind or make a big fuss about that.

Sometime after about 2 months, law makers will meet and state that they will make adjustments to the law, as they slowly realise that you can't send people outside and somehow expect to maintain current noise regulations. Expect these to take longer to be introduced than the original law.

When the weather gets warmer, there'll be at laest one article in the tabloid papers about someone on a ground floor somewhere who can't open the window anymore because of smoke drifting in from people having to go outside to smoke.