Hello all,
So the ‘debate’ about the pro/cons about the smoking ban has long since deteriorated. Each side has simply intrenched itself into ideological idiocy with unrealistic disaster/utopian scenarios. This is boring. The thread is huge, and I really won’t bother later to look through it and see who was “right�.
So I made this thread. Keep it simple, if you have disagreements, or comments, please post here. The only thing we want here is predictions. So we can scroll through and see who nailed it. For clarity, please write a prediction on what will happen, or how things will be during the following intervals:
1) Morning of January First (ie. when people are out partying after midnight)
2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect
3) 1 year after ban in effect
4) 5 years after ban in effect.
I’ll write a full post later when I have time, but here’s an example for #1:
1) Morning of January First
People will most likely not immediately snuff out their cigarettes at midnight, and compliance will be low. There will be a case of an anti-smoker confronting a smoker, leading to a kafuffle. This will be grossly exaggerated for the usual infotainment purposes by Bild/TZ but not much will come of it. (ok, perhaps this won't happen exactly that night, but I'm betting on 0-3 months)
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Predictions for effects of the smoking ban
Just your prediction, stated clearly for ridicule
The non-smokers will still find something to bitch and whine about.
Same as in Scotland. They predicted riots. No one did fuck all - they just stuck to the rules and smoked in the streets. Here they fucking love rules so it will be quiet as a church mouse.
Germans are so daft I reckon the smokers probably voted for the ban, just so they could have another rule to obey.
Germans are so daft I reckon the smokers probably voted for the ban, just so they could have another rule to obey.
25% of dry cleaners in Germany will go bust as people don't need to clean their suits so often.
Something wrong with my brain. I read that the first time as "CLEAN THEIR SLUTS SO OFTEN", and was thinking that actually I prefer my sluts dirty.
Cross over from the cleaning up of Amsterdam thread perhaps?
All the smokers will decide that if you are gonna get nicked for smoking anyway, you might as well go the whole hog and smoke massive fat reefers wherever you go. As a result, sales of pringles and chocolate cookies will totally go through the roof, and all the non smokers will start smoking joints aswell, when they see how awesome it is for all the smokers to stumble about their lives in a gently stoned oblivion. Nobody will have a clue whats going on, so nobody will remember there is any law, then somebody will decide that they fancy smoking something, but haven't got any weed left, so they'll light a cigarette. We'll all be back where we started, but nobody will care or winge, because they'll be totally blitzed, and probably standing about giggling at a dog in street. Awesome.
Same thing will happen as it has in the UK, a few bar owners will ignore the ban...more fool them, ignoring the ban wont change the law, it will just put you out of business. Most bars will adhere to the ban. Smokers in the beginning will smoke their cigerettes in a more determined manner...you wont stop me smoking, no sir! Then after a while they'll realise it aint that bad and just smoke less. As for noise outside, I've never heard a group of smokers outdoors being overly noisy and honestly, how long does it really take you to smoke a fag? You'll all end up smoking less.
My predictions:
1) Morning of January First (ie. when people are out partying after midnight)
Absolutely nothing will happen. Patrons will be allowed to smoke until closing time, with the real bans starting when they reopen later on the 1st.
2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect
There will be numerous reports of noise, disgruntled pub owners and disgruntled tenants. Some pub owners and tennants will be accomodating, e.g. accept the new situation, or complain. Some locations, such as Kilian's, will suffer because smokers won't be allowed to congregate outside. The Bayerischer Landtag will do nothing.
3) 3- 12 Months after ban in effect
For those locations which have a higher occurance of people complaining, business will suffer. Some small locations will have to close, do to inability to meet both the smoking and noise requirements. Larger locales will suffer very little. However, Oktoberfest will be chaotic, as smokers will want to smoke, but have no place to go - and once they leave the tents, they won't be to able to get back in. The Bayerischer Landtag will finally notice that something might be wrong.
4) 1 year after ban in effect
After Oktoberfest, the Bayerischer Landtag puts a more sensible set of rules will be put in place, which allows for smokers, non-smokers, pub/restaurant owners and tennants to get along in relative harmony. But, by this time, some small locations will be closed, due to less business.
5) 5 years after ban in effect.
Nobody will remember what the fuss was about.
1) Morning of January First (ie. when people are out partying after midnight)
Absolutely nothing will happen. Patrons will be allowed to smoke until closing time, with the real bans starting when they reopen later on the 1st.
2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect
There will be numerous reports of noise, disgruntled pub owners and disgruntled tenants. Some pub owners and tennants will be accomodating, e.g. accept the new situation, or complain. Some locations, such as Kilian's, will suffer because smokers won't be allowed to congregate outside. The Bayerischer Landtag will do nothing.
3) 3- 12 Months after ban in effect
For those locations which have a higher occurance of people complaining, business will suffer. Some small locations will have to close, do to inability to meet both the smoking and noise requirements. Larger locales will suffer very little. However, Oktoberfest will be chaotic, as smokers will want to smoke, but have no place to go - and once they leave the tents, they won't be to able to get back in. The Bayerischer Landtag will finally notice that something might be wrong.
4) 1 year after ban in effect
After Oktoberfest, the Bayerischer Landtag puts a more sensible set of rules will be put in place, which allows for smokers, non-smokers, pub/restaurant owners and tennants to get along in relative harmony. But, by this time, some small locations will be closed, due to less business.
5) 5 years after ban in effect.
Nobody will remember what the fuss was about.
We're dealing with Germans. It'll be obeyed to the letter.
1) Morning of January First (ie. when people are out partying after midnight)
People will open champagne, drink it then use the bottles as a make shift artillery base. People tend to be outside at midnight anyways so if they smoke, nobody will give a shit.
2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect
People will do more sport, in an attempt to get fit and keep up their new years resolutions. Giving up smoking will probably be on that list.
3) 1 year after ban in effect
It will be new years again, so people will be outside at midnight and hence they'll be doing the whole artillery/street thing.
4) 5 years after ban in effect.
The super massive black hole at the center of our galaxy will have hiccoughed a giant wave of evil radiation across the entire milky way killing all life in the galaxy.
People will open champagne, drink it then use the bottles as a make shift artillery base. People tend to be outside at midnight anyways so if they smoke, nobody will give a shit.
2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect
People will do more sport, in an attempt to get fit and keep up their new years resolutions. Giving up smoking will probably be on that list.
3) 1 year after ban in effect
It will be new years again, so people will be outside at midnight and hence they'll be doing the whole artillery/street thing.
4) 5 years after ban in effect.
The super massive black hole at the center of our galaxy will have hiccoughed a giant wave of evil radiation across the entire milky way killing all life in the galaxy.
Quite a lot of small bars to close down. Beer prices to increase by more than normal in pubs and bars. Price of a Maß at the Wies'n to go up by more than normal.
A positive may be more people using deoderant due to pubs stinking. I have noticed lots of Germans don't seem to bother with it. Apparently a shower is good enough but in 30°+ you need some form of anti-perspirant. Or at least the people where I work often tend to smell a tad unpleasant in summer.
A positive may be more people using deoderant due to pubs stinking. I have noticed lots of Germans don't seem to bother with it. Apparently a shower is good enough but in 30°+ you need some form of anti-perspirant. Or at least the people where I work often tend to smell a tad unpleasant in summer.
QUOTE (JerseyBoy @ Dec 20 2007, 11:01 am) 
Some locations, such as Kilian's, will suffer because smokers won't be allowed to congregate outside.
People already congregate outside Kilians? I dont see them having any problem.
QUOTE (don_riina @ Dec 20 2007, 10:56 am)
All the smokers will decide that if you are gonna get nicked for smoking anyway, you might as well go the whole hog and smoke massive fat reefers wherever you go.
The Don has a point there - I think the ban only affects tobacco products, not other dried plants.
1) Nobody will take any notice of the ban at midnight on 1st. They'll probably be drunk and won't remember/care. Bar owners won't want to kill the atmosphere. Besides that, the lawmakers have already stated that the law won't be enacted until after NYE celebrations.
2) In the first week or 2 of the ban, I think some attempt will be made to get smokers to go outside. Most will and it'll be fine during the day. Noise complaints will go up at night and there'll be some articles in the TZ, the AZ and Bild about people living near pubs who can't sleep anymore because of the noise. Pubs in commercial areas will be OK, but within a month those in residential areas will have had so much stress from neighbours and the police, that they will seek their own solutions which may range from banning smoking until 11pm and setting up a small smoking corner inside after that time, to completely flouting the law.
If the private club loophole stands, then you'll see no change to the current situation in pubs. Restaurants will force their patrons to smoke outside though but nobody will mind or make a big fuss about that.
Sometime after about 2 months, law makers will meet and state that they will make adjustments to the law, as they slowly realise that you can't send people outside and somehow expect to maintain current noise regulations. Expect these to take longer to be introduced than the original law.
When the weather gets warmer, there'll be at laest one article in the tabloid papers about someone on a ground floor somewhere who can't open the window anymore because of smoke drifting in from people having to go outside to smoke.
2) In the first week or 2 of the ban, I think some attempt will be made to get smokers to go outside. Most will and it'll be fine during the day. Noise complaints will go up at night and there'll be some articles in the TZ, the AZ and Bild about people living near pubs who can't sleep anymore because of the noise. Pubs in commercial areas will be OK, but within a month those in residential areas will have had so much stress from neighbours and the police, that they will seek their own solutions which may range from banning smoking until 11pm and setting up a small smoking corner inside after that time, to completely flouting the law.
If the private club loophole stands, then you'll see no change to the current situation in pubs. Restaurants will force their patrons to smoke outside though but nobody will mind or make a big fuss about that.
Sometime after about 2 months, law makers will meet and state that they will make adjustments to the law, as they slowly realise that you can't send people outside and somehow expect to maintain current noise regulations. Expect these to take longer to be introduced than the original law.
When the weather gets warmer, there'll be at laest one article in the tabloid papers about someone on a ground floor somewhere who can't open the window anymore because of smoke drifting in from people having to go outside to smoke.
I'll eventually lead a more healthier lifestyle.
QUOTE (3 Lions @ Dec 20 2007, 11:08 am)
People already congregate outside Kilians? I dont see them having any problem.
Kilians is a classic example of a boozer that has a problem. Members of the god squad live upstairs in the building on the right as you exit the doors and are constantly complaining about noise which is why Kilians have a big fook off sign on the door saying please be quiet.
Kilians will eventually be forced (if they can be) to not let people smoke outside at night and as a result I can see that they are going to lose a lot of custom. Unless all those people who ‘say’ they never go out because of smoking go there every night to replace the smokers who wont go near the place.
1)Nothing will happen.
2) Smokers will have got used to going outside for a quick, quiet fag. The only bars that close down are the crappy smelly ones, who should have closed down years ago.
3) Cigarette sales will have plummeted although the ban at the Oktoberfest will be completely ignored due to the impossibility of enforcing it.
4) Smoking will be like paisley patterned trousers, something we did in the past. When it was all fields around here.
2) Smokers will have got used to going outside for a quick, quiet fag. The only bars that close down are the crappy smelly ones, who should have closed down years ago.
3) Cigarette sales will have plummeted although the ban at the Oktoberfest will be completely ignored due to the impossibility of enforcing it.
4) Smoking will be like paisley patterned trousers, something we did in the past. When it was all fields around here.
1) Morning of January First (ie. when people are out partying after midnight)
Some people will use the smoking ban as additional incentive to give up smoking, and will resolutely stub out their last cigarette at midnight. Other will resolutely smoke their last cigarette. And their next last cigarette. And their really-the-last cigarette... Other's will be too far gone to remember that they wanted to give up smoking.
2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect
The law will be followed in the vast majority of restaurants and wirtshaeuser. Some landlords will ignore any smoking that occurs, some of those will be caught and fined. The noise problem will make the news and be discussed passionately for several months by all Bavarians. And Hazza.
3) 1 year after ban in effect
Germany has realised the same thing that every other country before them has realised - smokers clustered around the entrance to a pub/restaurant/office building/public building is still a problem. They will implement the same solution as the other ocuntries - smoking will be banned within a certain distance of all such buildings. But first they will discuss the issue for at least 18 months.
4) 5 years after ban in effect.
A small percentage of pubs have been unable to adapt to the changes and have gone under. Less children and young adults are taking up smoking. The first health-service studies are showing a decrease in smoking-related illnesses. People going on holidays come back cursing about the smoke-filled pubs in Istanbul/Paris/Morocco.
Some people will use the smoking ban as additional incentive to give up smoking, and will resolutely stub out their last cigarette at midnight. Other will resolutely smoke their last cigarette. And their next last cigarette. And their really-the-last cigarette... Other's will be too far gone to remember that they wanted to give up smoking.
2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect
The law will be followed in the vast majority of restaurants and wirtshaeuser. Some landlords will ignore any smoking that occurs, some of those will be caught and fined. The noise problem will make the news and be discussed passionately for several months by all Bavarians. And Hazza.
3) 1 year after ban in effect
Germany has realised the same thing that every other country before them has realised - smokers clustered around the entrance to a pub/restaurant/office building/public building is still a problem. They will implement the same solution as the other ocuntries - smoking will be banned within a certain distance of all such buildings. But first they will discuss the issue for at least 18 months.
4) 5 years after ban in effect.
A small percentage of pubs have been unable to adapt to the changes and have gone under. Less children and young adults are taking up smoking. The first health-service studies are showing a decrease in smoking-related illnesses. People going on holidays come back cursing about the smoke-filled pubs in Istanbul/Paris/Morocco.
1) Morning of January First (ie. when people are out partying after midnight)
People will continue smoking inside this night, the ban will not be enforced.
2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect
Some sensationalist articles in the tabloids, but on the whole ban will work smoothly and will be enforced.
3) 1 year after ban in effect
An overwhelming majority will think that the ban was a good idea.
4) 5 years after ban in effect.
Most people won't believe that we ever allowed smoking indoors and will find the idea disgusting.
On a separate note, I don't know why people think it won't be able to be enforced at the Oktoberfest. All they would need to do is dedicate one door and a small area outside it to smokers. They could tape it off so no one can enter through there. Bouncers manage to enforce the "no standing on tables" rule, I imagine they will be able to stop people from smoking. Besides, by then we'll have had 9 months of the smoking ban already and people will be accustomed to not smoking indoors.
People will continue smoking inside this night, the ban will not be enforced.
2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect
Some sensationalist articles in the tabloids, but on the whole ban will work smoothly and will be enforced.
3) 1 year after ban in effect
An overwhelming majority will think that the ban was a good idea.
4) 5 years after ban in effect.
Most people won't believe that we ever allowed smoking indoors and will find the idea disgusting.
On a separate note, I don't know why people think it won't be able to be enforced at the Oktoberfest. All they would need to do is dedicate one door and a small area outside it to smokers. They could tape it off so no one can enter through there. Bouncers manage to enforce the "no standing on tables" rule, I imagine they will be able to stop people from smoking. Besides, by then we'll have had 9 months of the smoking ban already and people will be accustomed to not smoking indoors.
QUOTE (Matt T @ Dec 20 2007, 11:35 am)
Germany has realised the same thing that every other country before them has realised - smokers clustered around the entrance to a pub/restaurant/office building/public building is still a problem. They will implement the same solution as the other ocuntries - smoking will be banned within a certain distance of all such buildings. But first they will discuss the issue for at least 18 months.
If they do that, then they won't wait 18 months. They'll try to implement it 8 days after first mentioning it. Then they'll change the required distance from 5 metres in front of public entrances to 50 metres in front of any entrance at the last minute without thinking that they have just inadvertantly banned smoking from everywhere in Bavaria (except for parks and out in the country) - including people's own houses and flats.
1) Morning of January First (ie. when people are out partying after midnight)
Someone will post the question, "Can I still smoke on New Years after midnight in a pub?"
It will be sporadically enforced that evening. While everyone is outside playing war, ashtrays will be removed and no smoking signs will be put up in the more trendy establishments.
Someone will post a rant about having to stop smoking inside after midnight.
2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect
No less than three threads will be started on "Where can I smoke inside at a pub, restaurant, whatever?", "The smoking ban sucks" and "I was at a pub last night and people were still smoking, can I call the police?".
Someone will post the thread "I got caught smoking at X, how can I get out of paying the fine?"
3) 1 year after ban in effect
Without the smoke, people will realize just how bad other people smell. Posts and threads will be written on the lack of hygiene and the overwhelming misuse of perfumes. You will not be able to walk into a bar without being decked by the stench of "Douglas" in the air.
Threads will still be started as in 0-3 months for which they will be promptly Keydecked.
4) 5 years after ban in effect
People will be puffing smokeless cigarettes. It will be surreal. Threads will be posted on where can I get the real stuff for which the answer will be some shifty dude at the Hbf who will also sell you the now banned Axe or Chanel to mask the smell.
Someone will post the question, "Can I still smoke on New Years after midnight in a pub?"
It will be sporadically enforced that evening. While everyone is outside playing war, ashtrays will be removed and no smoking signs will be put up in the more trendy establishments.
Someone will post a rant about having to stop smoking inside after midnight.
2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect
No less than three threads will be started on "Where can I smoke inside at a pub, restaurant, whatever?", "The smoking ban sucks" and "I was at a pub last night and people were still smoking, can I call the police?".
Someone will post the thread "I got caught smoking at X, how can I get out of paying the fine?"
3) 1 year after ban in effect
Without the smoke, people will realize just how bad other people smell. Posts and threads will be written on the lack of hygiene and the overwhelming misuse of perfumes. You will not be able to walk into a bar without being decked by the stench of "Douglas" in the air.
Threads will still be started as in 0-3 months for which they will be promptly Keydecked.
4) 5 years after ban in effect
People will be puffing smokeless cigarettes. It will be surreal. Threads will be posted on where can I get the real stuff for which the answer will be some shifty dude at the Hbf who will also sell you the now banned Axe or Chanel to mask the smell.
QUOTE (Hazza @ Dec 20 2007, 12:15 pm)
When the weather gets warmer, there'll be at laest one article in the tabloid papers about someone on a ground floor somewhere who can't open the window anymore because of smoke drifting in from people having to go outside to smoke.
... despite the fact that the person in question never opens the windows anyway because "es zieeeht!"
People smoke in Germany?
The cost of dry cleaning will come back into the earth's orbit due to competition.
Most of the tourists coming to the O'fest won't notice anything different if smoking is only permitted in certain areas. It's normal.
FF
Most of the tourists coming to the O'fest won't notice anything different if smoking is only permitted in certain areas. It's normal.
FF
1) No one will notice the difference, they're already talking about a 6 week schonfrist.
TZ runs a whole article on brave bar owners who wont be allowing non-smokers into their bars. And non-smokers will complain because they are the fun places to be in. Smoke Easies are the new thing.
2) Depends on the winter weather. Smoking outside when its minus 8 is quicker then when its milder. Expect some small mini eck kneipen, and especialy village gasthouses to flaunt the law and be dragged up before the courts by some do gooders, thats if they aren't all distracted by having to protest against the transrapid because that also might be fun aswell.
TZ runs article on smoker who froze to death. And a competition to win warm jackets with built in ashtrays which are the new thing.
3) Law will be modified as the non-urban bavarian population will refuse to not smoke while having a fruhschoppen at the stammtisch. Riots at the oktoberfest middle weekend when bouncers can not explain to 200000 italians why they can't smoke. Beer consumption though will increase as smokers get stuck for things to do with their hands, but the atmosphere will be tense to kick offish.
TZ runs a competition to win a trip to a country where you can smoke. Smoke tourism becomes the new thing.
4) All non smokers will be busy protesting at the opening of the transrapid; after having also successfully stopped a moschee, liberal supermarket opening times, cars which use petrol, children on flights, small dogs in bags, and any type of food that isnt bio and doesnt have sixteen different kinds of grain in it and more seads on it than a garden centre.
TZ changes it's name to NIMBY
TZ runs a whole article on brave bar owners who wont be allowing non-smokers into their bars. And non-smokers will complain because they are the fun places to be in. Smoke Easies are the new thing.
2) Depends on the winter weather. Smoking outside when its minus 8 is quicker then when its milder. Expect some small mini eck kneipen, and especialy village gasthouses to flaunt the law and be dragged up before the courts by some do gooders, thats if they aren't all distracted by having to protest against the transrapid because that also might be fun aswell.
TZ runs article on smoker who froze to death. And a competition to win warm jackets with built in ashtrays which are the new thing.
3) Law will be modified as the non-urban bavarian population will refuse to not smoke while having a fruhschoppen at the stammtisch. Riots at the oktoberfest middle weekend when bouncers can not explain to 200000 italians why they can't smoke. Beer consumption though will increase as smokers get stuck for things to do with their hands, but the atmosphere will be tense to kick offish.
TZ runs a competition to win a trip to a country where you can smoke. Smoke tourism becomes the new thing.
4) All non smokers will be busy protesting at the opening of the transrapid; after having also successfully stopped a moschee, liberal supermarket opening times, cars which use petrol, children on flights, small dogs in bags, and any type of food that isnt bio and doesnt have sixteen different kinds of grain in it and more seads on it than a garden centre.
TZ changes it's name to NIMBY
1) Morning of January First (ie. when people are out partying after midnight)
No change, other than that non-smokers will start the year in a bad mood, due to the fact that people are still smoking.
2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect
Many smokers will continue to insist on their right to smoke and, due to lack of personnel, bans will not be enforced. The Oktoberfest will have big yellow signs saying in German that no smoking is allowed. They will be ignored by all nationalities.
3) 1 year after ban in effect
State government realises it's not working and spends another year debating what they can do. Loopholes will be closed, but smoking in separate rooms will be allowed.
4) 5 years after ban in effect.
The new rules will largely be adhered to.
No change, other than that non-smokers will start the year in a bad mood, due to the fact that people are still smoking.
2) 0-3 Months after ban in effect
Many smokers will continue to insist on their right to smoke and, due to lack of personnel, bans will not be enforced. The Oktoberfest will have big yellow signs saying in German that no smoking is allowed. They will be ignored by all nationalities.
3) 1 year after ban in effect
State government realises it's not working and spends another year debating what they can do. Loopholes will be closed, but smoking in separate rooms will be allowed.
4) 5 years after ban in effect.
The new rules will largely be adhered to.
It will be just like it is in the railway stations.
Half of the smokers will smoke in crowds around the entrances.
The other half will continue to smoke inside.
Staff will never ask anyone to stop smoking.
Staff will continue to smoke.
The police will never ask anyone to stop smoking.
If the police see a black person smoking, they will send a petite policewoman aggressively to shout at and berate the smoker while standing very close to them. As soon as the smoker raises their hands in the air to say "whoa there" the other police will draw their batons and start to beat the offender before dragging them off to be charged with assault on a police officer.
The police will continue to smoke.
No smoker will ever stub out after hearing a polite request so to do.
I have observed all of the above and they are not really predictions so I will make one prediction:
Somewhere, someday a smoker will refuse a polite request to stub out and a non-smoker will lose his rag and thump the smoker so badly that the latter needs to go to hospital. The non-smoker will be charged with assault and in court, the defense lawyer will argue that subjecting somebody to passive smoke causes harm (recognized in the legislation) and that this means that the smoker committed an assault on the non-smoker so the resulting thumping was a mixture of self defense and understandable instinctive retaliation (both allowed as a defense to an assault charge under German law). It will thus become legal to kick the shit out of any smoker who comes within shit-kicking range. Whoopi doo. [Some humor intended but this _is_ a serious prediction.]
jpoc
Half of the smokers will smoke in crowds around the entrances.
The other half will continue to smoke inside.
Staff will never ask anyone to stop smoking.
Staff will continue to smoke.
The police will never ask anyone to stop smoking.
If the police see a black person smoking, they will send a petite policewoman aggressively to shout at and berate the smoker while standing very close to them. As soon as the smoker raises their hands in the air to say "whoa there" the other police will draw their batons and start to beat the offender before dragging them off to be charged with assault on a police officer.
The police will continue to smoke.
No smoker will ever stub out after hearing a polite request so to do.
I have observed all of the above and they are not really predictions so I will make one prediction:
Somewhere, someday a smoker will refuse a polite request to stub out and a non-smoker will lose his rag and thump the smoker so badly that the latter needs to go to hospital. The non-smoker will be charged with assault and in court, the defense lawyer will argue that subjecting somebody to passive smoke causes harm (recognized in the legislation) and that this means that the smoker committed an assault on the non-smoker so the resulting thumping was a mixture of self defense and understandable instinctive retaliation (both allowed as a defense to an assault charge under German law). It will thus become legal to kick the shit out of any smoker who comes within shit-kicking range. Whoopi doo. [Some humor intended but this _is_ a serious prediction.]
jpoc
At the end of 1999 there was widespread scaremongering that the Y2K bug would cause global economic meltdown.
In the end January 1, 2000 came and went and hardly anybody noticed any difference. Life carried on just fine.
At the end of 2001 there was widespread concern that Europe wasn't ready for the Euro currency introduction.
In the end January 1, 2002 came and went and everyone was still able to buy their morning bread and milk just fine.
At the end of 2007 there was widespread hysteria in Bavaria that the smoking ban was unworkable.
In the end January 1, 2008 came and went and everyone got along with their new smoke-free nightlives just fine.
In the end January 1, 2000 came and went and hardly anybody noticed any difference. Life carried on just fine.
At the end of 2001 there was widespread concern that Europe wasn't ready for the Euro currency introduction.
In the end January 1, 2002 came and went and everyone was still able to buy their morning bread and milk just fine.
At the end of 2007 there was widespread hysteria in Bavaria that the smoking ban was unworkable.
In the end January 1, 2008 came and went and everyone got along with their new smoke-free nightlives just fine.
QUOTE (gideon @ Dec 20 2007, 5:53 pm)
Riots at the oktoberfest middle weekend when bouncers can not explain to 200000 italians why they can't smoke
I very, very rarely stick up for Italians, but in this case they will most likely be the best behaved because they have had these rules for over a year now.
Wasn't bird flu supposed to wipe us all out even faster than second hand smoke?
Yes, but luckily the second hand smoke killed off all the bird flu and ironically saved us.
If we had this ban earlier, we'd all be dead.
If we had this ban earlier, we'd all be dead.
My predictions for the smoking ban.
Ok I've gone over enough back issues of the Economist, so I feel like I'm now able to leave the impression of making a prediction whereas I just talk about various possibilities.
That night:
Nothing. Compliance will be null, aside from a couple smokers who will use it as a good reason to give up smoking (not many). My earlier prediction about violence came true, nearly to the letter, except it was earlier than expected. Perhaps there will be more, but this first one is so barbaric that any following fights will have trouble 'living up to it' in the press.
0-6 weeks apparently:
There will not be fines or state enforcement early in this process. However, many bars will use this trial time as an opportunity to get their customers used to it, and to test out various methods of compliance. Some will totally ignore the rule however. Bars which make an honest attempt at compliance will be noted, whereas those that ignore the law will receive extra scrutiny once enforcement goes into effect.
0-3 months:
edit: ok, I re-thank schwabinger 7, they should be ok, and everyone will simply stand in the alley by the gate. I think Tumult is in trouble though.
Ok I've gone over enough back issues of the Economist, so I feel like I'm now able to leave the impression of making a prediction whereas I just talk about various possibilities.
That night:
Nothing. Compliance will be null, aside from a couple smokers who will use it as a good reason to give up smoking (not many). My earlier prediction about violence came true, nearly to the letter, except it was earlier than expected. Perhaps there will be more, but this first one is so barbaric that any following fights will have trouble 'living up to it' in the press.
0-6 weeks apparently:
There will not be fines or state enforcement early in this process. However, many bars will use this trial time as an opportunity to get their customers used to it, and to test out various methods of compliance. Some will totally ignore the rule however. Bars which make an honest attempt at compliance will be noted, whereas those that ignore the law will receive extra scrutiny once enforcement goes into effect.
0-3 months:
- A variety of methods discussed in this forum will be used to police guests at bars which are making an honest attempts
- Certain bars whose clients are primarily all smokers will continue to ignore the law, as they did previously during week 0-6. They will be inspected, fined, and used as examples here by those wishing to show that this ban isn't working.. but really they made absolutely no effort. If I had to be specific, I'd guess Tumult and possibly Schwabinger 7 (but I hope not!) will fall into this category
- Some smaller bars will close, citing loss of business due to the ban. Most likely they were on the edge just before, and this pushed them over. It will be trumped here as an example, but really the amount will be pretty small. Expect a sympathetic article in the tabloids about a long-time-running bar closing up shop "due to the smoking ban"... with details on their new more affordable location (ie. just using the ban to get press for the new opening)
- Smokers will complain about the exceptionally cold winter
- Most bars will do fine, perhaps raising prices, but in general it will be ok
- A story will be printed in the tabloids about people realizing how plentiful all other (B.O.) smells are
- Many Oktoberfest tents will have a special outdoor area only accessible from the inside, which is for smoking
- There will be one especially rainy day, causing problems for afore mentioned smokers
- This Oktoberfest will gross a good deal less money than previous ones. Many will blame the smoking ban, but really it is due to a downturn in the world economy, lead by a US recession.
- Noise/Smoke will be a problem in residential areas, and one article will be written in the tabloids about it, as a warm summer gives smokers less incentive to go inside quickly, and neighbors keep the windows open.
- Beer gardens receive more business, 'at home' beer sales are up for the year with Alkoport receiving large amounts of business due to house parties
- Smoking in Germany has declined substantially, but it is still high by US standards.
- Compliance with the law is complete
- A new ban/law will be put in the works which many claim will be the end of the world for bar owners, everyone will forget what a fuss they made about the smoking ban.
edit: ok, I re-thank schwabinger 7, they should be ok, and everyone will simply stand in the alley by the gate. I think Tumult is in trouble though.
Many bars that try and go down the "private club" route will find it frustrated.
At some point there wil have to be a trade off between smoking ban and noise/freischank laws.
Small pubs as we know them in inner Munich will continue to close.
At some point there wil have to be a trade off between smoking ban and noise/freischank laws.
Small pubs as we know them in inner Munich will continue to close.
My wallet is now crammed with membership cards for "rauchen Erlaubt" clubs. Did anyone predict this? I can't think of many pubs that I go to regularly that make people smoke outside. Someone said back in the thread about the problems at Oktoberfest with the tents. Similar experiences can be seen at big gigs... they let people in and then while the crowd behind are still filing in, the people at the front have bought a drink and want to go out ofr a cigarette.
QUOTE (thefirelane @ Dec 20 2007, 11:22 am)
Keep it simple, if you have disagreements, or comments, please post here. The only thing we want here is predictions. So we can scroll through and see who nailed it.
How about predictions for the effects of the ban going forwards from here?
I predict that:
The law will be strengthened and smoking clubs, like all closed public places, will be forced to enforce the no-smoking policy. No idea when the politicians will grasp this seemingly thorny topic again but probably when they need to divert attention from something else or make a populist gesture.
Regardless what happens to the law the numbers of smoking clubs will decline as they start to go out of business. Some will survive, but only those that had a strong business before or some other feature that attracts a dedicated crowd. I would guess the number has already peaked and the decline will probably start this year.
I predict that:
The law will be strengthened and smoking clubs, like all closed public places, will be forced to enforce the no-smoking policy. No idea when the politicians will grasp this seemingly thorny topic again but probably when they need to divert attention from something else or make a populist gesture.
Regardless what happens to the law the numbers of smoking clubs will decline as they start to go out of business. Some will survive, but only those that had a strong business before or some other feature that attracts a dedicated crowd. I would guess the number has already peaked and the decline will probably start this year.
I predict more suicides of pub owners. Definitely didn't see this one coming. I knew the man, it was a favourite hangout of our friends and we'd often pop in when we were visiting the in-laws...
Wirt erhängt sich wegen Rauchverbot - Blick.ch (photo with several members of our motorcycle club)
Wirt erhängt sich wegen Rauchverbot - Bild.de (video and more photos)
Balinger Bären-Wirt Uli Stegmaier ist tot - sw-online.de
Homepage of the Baeren pub
owner's blog
By the way, Uli wasn't a smoker!
Edit: Here's a brief version in English.
Wirt erhängt sich wegen Rauchverbot - Blick.ch (photo with several members of our motorcycle club)
Wirt erhängt sich wegen Rauchverbot - Bild.de (video and more photos)
Balinger Bären-Wirt Uli Stegmaier ist tot - sw-online.de
Homepage of the Baeren pub
owner's blog
By the way, Uli wasn't a smoker!
Edit: Here's a brief version in English.
I've heard smoking bans be blamed for a lot of things, but suicide is definitely a new one. Seems a slightly disproportionate response, but each to their own I guess.
QUOTE (Small Town Boy @ May 9 2008, 1:56 pm)
Seems a slightly disproportionate response, but each to their own I guess.
Just like the farmers in England and the consequences of BSE. Some hung themselves too. Losing your livelyhood can affect your ability to judge the future, and as owning a Bar involves alot of your own personality and soul being invested in it too, it is a logical step to to see why this happens. But hey. Our clothes don't smell!
All,
Please... the whole point of this thread was to avoid this kind of useless chat.
I have no problem with predictions moving forward, but they are a little useless.
If you have to reply to something someone says, please do the following:
1) Click the quote button.
2) Go here
5) Add Reply, type your post as normal.
edit, nevermind, it's as simple as 1,2,5! (3 sir!)
Please... the whole point of this thread was to avoid this kind of useless chat.
I have no problem with predictions moving forward, but they are a little useless.
If you have to reply to something someone says, please do the following:
1) Click the quote button.
2) Go here
5) Add Reply, type your post as normal.
edit, nevermind, it's as simple as 1,2,5! (3 sir!)
you don't need to do it as complicated as that.
1) Click the quote button
skip 2) and 3) go straight to 4)
4) Go here
5) Addreply and post as normal.
1) Click the quote button
skip 2) and 3) go straight to 4)
4) Go here
5) Addreply and post as normal.
QUOTE (thefirelane @ May 9 2008, 3:00 pm)
Please... the whole point of this thread was to avoid this kind of useless chat.
Who are you to determine what is useless or not?
Toytown's very existance is based on useless chat and office boredom, with a tadge of info, beer related events and the odd curry war thrown in. Oh and it's Friday.
QUOTE
The fears of Germany's bar owners have become reality, as the first official statistics revealed a sharp drop in revenue since the state smoking bans took effect last year.
Bars and pubs, whose main business is selling beverages, have been hit hardest by the new smoking bans, according to statistics released by the Federal Statistical Office on Friday, June 6. Eateries, restaurants and cafes faired better.
In the fourth quarter of 2007, revenue dropped by 14.1 percent more than the previous year for bars located in states with smoking bans. Those in states without bans collected only 8.8 percent less than during the same period in 2006.
Bars and pubs, whose main business is selling beverages, have been hit hardest by the new smoking bans, according to statistics released by the Federal Statistical Office on Friday, June 6. Eateries, restaurants and cafes faired better.
In the fourth quarter of 2007, revenue dropped by 14.1 percent more than the previous year for bars located in states with smoking bans. Those in states without bans collected only 8.8 percent less than during the same period in 2006.
dw-world
Well I'm sure that the wet-led pubs in states where smoking was still allowed last autumn must be relieved that their income only dropped by nearly one-tenth in the space of just one year.
So my predictions that pubs selling drinks would be hardest hit as happenend in Ireland and the UK have been proved errrrrrm...right.
Given that the pub trade operates on tight margins, a 10% drop in revenue could put a lot of pubs out of business.
Given that the pub trade operates on tight margins, a 10% drop in revenue could put a lot of pubs out of business.
Oh well. Perhaps they can diversify their businesses - asbestos or anthrax perhaps?
But good on you for consistently defending the right of common man to kill himself slowly and antisocially.
But good on you for consistently defending the right of common man to kill himself slowly and antisocially.
QUOTE (MonksTown @ Jun 9 2008, 8:49 pm)
So my predictions that pubs selling drinks would be hardest hit as happenend in Ireland and the UK have been proved errrrrrm...right.
Given that the pub trade operates on tight margins, a 10% drop in revenue could put a lot of pubs out of business.
Given that the pub trade operates on tight margins, a 10% drop in revenue could put a lot of pubs out of business.
you conveniently missed the point that sales in pubs in states where there is no smoking ban also dropped, which has been a trend for many, many years now, due to higher taxes etc. The smoking ban contributed to the 10% drop in states with a smoking ban but was certainly not the only cause.
Alcohol consumption has been targeted by the tax man for decades now. This is the major contributory factor to the decline in sales, not the smoking ban.
Course there are other reasons: Rising cost of beer in pubs compared to shops for home consumpton, increasing taxes, falling real incomes, social and demographic changes.
But smoking bans remain one of the major reasons that smaller more drinks orientated pubs are dying on their feet.
Unless they get round it, like in 80469 München.
But smoking bans remain one of the major reasons that smaller more drinks orientated pubs are dying on their feet.
Unless they get round it, like in 80469 München.
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