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Future of the real estate market in Berlin

Apartment rental is very cheap, will this change?

Toytown Germany > Discussion forum > North Germany > Berlin > Life in Berlin
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hallo
i just picked up the new issue of zitty. there's about 3 parts to the cover story and i've only quickly read one article. it talks about the amount of property that's been bought by developers. but then says it's cheaper to rent than buy in the super trendy zones and that you can basically live however you want a pay what you want in berlin.

the reality as i know it is that there are over 100,000 empty apartments in berlin, less than 10% of the population own their own flats, and the unemployment rate is about 17%. i somehow don't see these numbers suddenly changing. what do you think? it's not london or manhattan. people have options as to where they can live. and one of my in-laws commutes to berlin everyday from brandenburg. where it's still dirt cheap.
englishbooksandfoods
do you want to buy in Berlin?
Robert
hallo
no. my rent is dirt cheap. i've only heard nightmares from friends who own property in germany. if the city decides to widen the street or add a light or whatever, then the government divides the cost amongst the home owners on that street.

i've lived here a little while. berlin is 750 years old. it's always been a poor city. maybe it's changing and i just don't see. but i just don't see it.
englishbooksandfoods
its good job creation .oder
hallo
good job creation meaning all the construction companies hiring workers from eastern europe and paying them under the table?
englishbooksandfoods
new rents seem to be as expensive as hamburg in the city area.!?
englishbooksandfoods
yes, the exploitation of the workers is not passed onto the owners of the houses in question. And the impovement is not reflected in the house price in certain areas
hallo
i live in the center. always have. we just moved into a new apartment. i certainly don't pay hamburg prices. i think this is only true for people who don't speak german:-)
KofferInBerlin
What a lot of people also forget is that until two or three years ago Berlin's population was actually declining, and has only just started to pick up again, albeit very slowly. Combining that with the deadbeat economy and 15 years of speculation-driven construction and renovation means we're not going to see London-style conditions for a very long time, if ever. Some of the more popular locations are seeing "growth", but even there I think you'd be unlikely to find London-style €100,000 broom cupboards on offer.
billp
Well, we're not ever going to see London-style conditions here hopefully, because London is a boom and bust real estate market. It's currently in a ridiculous bubble and that bubble is going to burst just like it did about 10 years ago. I remember hearing back then about absurd prices for closets as well.

Germany's economy is far from being "deadbeat." It's growing quite nicely right now - one of the top ones in the eurozone - to the point that the government expects to balance the budget in 2010 and personally I think Berlin is going to see its share of that growth. It's obviously not going to do that from a 19th or 20th century industrial economy, but from its 21st century service and IT base, which has been expanding dynamically here in the past few years. Property prices - which were stagnant for a long time - are already enjoying a moderate boom in the choice central districts, and I think we're going to see those prices accelerate in the medium term, taking rental prices up as well. A number of international real estate experts have pinpointed Berlin as one of Europe's most undervalued markets for investment opportunity.
KofferInBerlin
By "deadbeat" I mean specifically the Berlin economy, which is playing at the bottom end of the German league. There are a few bright spots, and as you say a few choice districts, but the "home-grown" demand for housing as a whole is very modest, and there is still oversupply. Unless they discover oil here, I think anyone investing needs to look at the market very carefully and not expect short-term gains (at least not outside those choice districts, and only then if you can persuade the press that Brad Pitt has bought an apartment in the same street wink.gif.
murphaph
The high entry and possibly very high exit exit costs to and from german property (and often property in many countries) mean a quick return is unlikely. Anyone who views Berlin property investment in anything less than a ten year term needs to look again. Selling up before the 10 year capital gains exemption kicks in would likely destroy any capital appreciation one might make anyway. In any case, when considering property investment anywhere, the property should be able to 'wash it's own face' regardless of any capital appreciation.
chipbag
I looked at the online version of the zitty article which is badly written but seems to be pushing ithe pseudo-left wanker mags' jealous provincial line about english-speaking foriegners coming to berlin and disturbing the poor little germans (eg it fails to mention the flood of german yuppies and students on berlin rents). The writer doesn't mention the recent re-pricing of credit on international markets (ie less cheap money) and what effect that might have on demand for german property, neither do the real estate agents interviewed, they are probably worried (was this thread started by a real estate agent? it seems to be saying that people should get in now before the prices go up, I've heard this before somewhere...). As others here write there are good reasons why property in germany is cheap compared to elsewhere, one of them being rental law.
hallo
zitty is the time out of berlin. if you want information about re-pricing of credit or speculation as to whether or not american companies won't be buying anytime soon because of devaluation of the dollar, you should look at the financial times.

i started this thread. i don't work for a real estate agency. i just think it's incredible that the world is seemingly descending on berlin and people are buying up property when sony and mercedes are trying to unload their space in potsdamer platz --at a _considerable loss. in my opinion, berlin is one big black hole in terms of the property market. you can buy stuff for a good rate. but the real question is, will you be able to sell it on ever? and chipbag is right, who wants to deal with german rental law. it could take years (i'm talking 2-3) to get someone out of your apartment if he decides to quit paying rent.

and could anyone explain to me why people keep comparing berlin to new york? from an economic standpoint, it's more like washington dc. a bankrupt city with high unemployment and one big rich political ghetto. i travel a lot through the east. and to tell you the truth, the only place i've seen neo-nazis have been in berlin. it's one reason why i won't live in prenzlauerberg. Es ist die Grenze.
hallo
-deleted-
murphaph
I've been to Washington DC and it's hinterland a couple of times and I wouldn't compare Berlin to it at all. I probably wouldn't dream of comparing Berlin to NYC but some do...

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story...2185464,00.html

Make of that what you will.
VenusInFurs
QUOTE (hallo @ Oct 26 2007, 2:17 pm) *
i live in the center. always have. we just moved into a new apartment. i certainly don't pay hamburg prices. i think this is only true for people who don't speak german:-)

I think they meant for a rennovated apartment. I pay virtually nothing for my apartment but it's a hole. Mostly when I've been looking (and I do speak German and have lived here a few years) rennovated altbau or totally brand new apartments go for a LOT more than you seem to think.
hallo
for the place we moved out of --prime location, newly rennovated (when we moved in), totally redone building, we payed €297 cold. while we looked for a new place we saw prices all across the spectrum. there was a place around the corner from us asking for €900 (warm). but we also noticed that people were constantly moving out of the building and there were always for rent signs up--which is rarely a good sign. monoligual are unable to negotiate. i'd say that's a given. most building owners are desparate to get people to move in. we got almost €50 knocked off our place because my spouse and i both have jobs. we have a dachgeschoss that had been empty for 4 years. maybe i'm just lucky. or just tenacious. but i don't think so.
hallo
the dc comparison has zero to do with the look and feel of the city it has to do with the economy. like dc, berlin is all about the government. moving the capital from bonn to berlin reawakened a part of the city. but ultimately, you have an unemployment rate which hovers just below 20%. loads of drug dealers, heroin addicts, and crack heads (when they can get it), and neo-nazis. as well as places like marzahn, neuköln, etc which have tons of social problems (by germany standards). and there is zero industry in berlin. just like washington d.c.

berlin is a political ghetto. like washington d.c. all the media jobs in belrin are tied to the government being here. and the one boom area of the town is tourism. --can you say €5 mcjobs? and the government's great idea of creating more jobs is building a €400M palace it can't afford (isn't the city €60B in debt?) so it can create more €5 jobs and €400/month jobs.

unlike other capitals in europe, like paris or london or prague or even stockholm, germany is decentralized and so the country does not revolve around berlin. the financial center of germany is in frankfurt, and the real wealth is in the south.
murphaph
The current situation vis-a-vis a capital of such an ecomically large country moving lock stock and barrel is pretty much unprecedented I'd say. Certainly in living memory in Europe it stands out on its own. Berlin could go either way, that's for sure. It's a punt. I think however when compared to investing in other former communist cities it is a good bet.

just as an aside, I come from Dublin and along with Glasgow we have the highest rates of heroin addiction per capita in Europe. Berlin doesn't strike me as drug infested at all by comparison. I didn't see a single junkie out and about and I can usually spot them. Is it really that bad?
krostitzer
QUOTE (murphaph @ Oct 30 2007, 10:26 pm) *
I didn't see a single junkie out and about and I can usually spot them.

I second that... never seen anything at all like what I saw in Los Angeles. Occasionally some kooks at the Zoo late at night, but there's nothing abnormal about that. I think Berlin is a very clean city as far as drugs go. But maybe Hallo is familiar with some part of the city that I'm not. F'rinstance I know Tacheles has had a problem with drug dealers. But I don't spend much time around there because the hookers get on my nerves. Used to work late nights near hackesher, never had any problems with drugs in the club... And I know that Berlin has a statistically very low crime rate. Seems logical that high crime would be present if there were a significant drug problem.

Drugs are everywhere but there's no glaring drug problem in Berlin.

Furthermore I have never had any problems with neo nazis. Sometimes see skinheads on the street but that doesn't mean they are nazis. I know a tough looking dude who shaves his head, only because it's bald in patches... people think he's a neo nazi, but in reality he is a social worker.
KofferInBerlin
QUOTE (murphaph @ Oct 30 2007, 10:26 pm) *
just as an aside, I come from Dublin and along with Glasgow we have the highest rates of heroin addiction per capita in Europe. Berlin doesn't strike me as drug infested at all by comparison. I didn't see a single junkie out and about and I can usually spot them. Is it really that bad?

Berlin is big and decentral, so you just have to know where to look (Kottbusser Tor, Weinbergpark etc.) wink.gif Maybe also Stuttgarter Platz (Charlottenburg), I saw a needle vending machine there recently.
VenusInFurs
QUOTE (hallo @ Oct 30 2007, 9:24 pm) *
berlin is a political ghetto. like washington d.c. all the media jobs in belrin are tied to the government being here. and the one boom area of the town is tourism. --can you say €5 mcjobs? and the government's great idea of creating more jobs is building a €400M palace it can't afford (isn't the city €60B in debt?) so it can create more €5 jobs and €400/month jobs.

unlike other capitals in europe, like paris or london or prague or even stockholm, germany is decentralized and so the country does not revolve around berlin. the financial center of germany is in frankfurt, and the real wealth is in the south.

You are unable to see things from an investment standpoint. We have here a central European capital in a prime location, with very cheap real estate prices and there is a LOT of investment in this city. When it comes to real estate or any other investment opportunity you rarely do well when you see only what you have in front of you.

And for the record Germany is decentralized because it was divided for so many years. Centralization doesn't happen overnight. It's economics not magic.
hallo
QUOTE (murphaph @ Oct 30 2007, 11:26 pm) *
The current situation vis-a-vis a capital of such an ecomically large country moving lock stock and barrel is pretty much unprecedented I'd say. Certainly in living memory in Europe it stands out on its own. Berlin could go either way, that's for sure. It's a punt. I think however when compared to investing in other former communist cities it is a good bet.

just as an aside, I come from Dublin and along with Glasgow we have the highest rates of heroin addiction per capita in Europe. Berlin doesn't strike me as drug infested at all by comparison. I didn't see a single junkie out and about and I can usually spot them. Is it really that bad?

i have a friend whose a doctor. she says it's really bad. dublin is more compressed than berlin (i've been to dublin. beautifuly city!). everything in berlin is spread out. and people are german. and there's still a bit of a social system. so i think you'd more than likely find people strung out in the comfort of their apartment. most of the parks and undergrounds are filled with drug dealers. they just try to blend in a bit. a famous german actor almost died from the stuff a couple of months ago. ever so often the newspapers list the big drug zones in the city. --haven't you seen the packs of razzia in the undergrounds with their dogs? what do _you think they're looking for?

in terms of investment. i just think, if someone wants to buy a place, die in it and pass it along to the kids then yes, it is a fine investment. but if someone wants to make a quick buck, it's not possible. because you have to hold onto property for 10 years in order to not get f**ked by taxes. anything could happen in 10 years there must be a reason that less than 10% of a population of 3.3M own property in the city.

also, if rents rise beyond a point that people feel comfortable with, people will continue to flee the city center. a lot of artistic types have moved back to kreuzberg and are moving further east. but unlike dublin or paris or london or manhattan, berlin is quite a large city (not a mere 7 miles like manhattan). and unlike new york and all of the UK, germany has a really great train system. it takes me almost an hour to get to schonefeld airport. tack on another 20 minutes and i could be in leipzig.
krostitzer
QUOTE (hallo @ Oct 31 2007, 7:51 am) *
you'd more than likely find people strung out in the comfort of their apartment. most of the parks and undergrounds are filled with drug dealers. they just try to blend in a bit.

Precisely why it's not such a problem from an investor's point of view.

Sure the city has a dark underbelly and it's share of problems. But those people aren't the people who would be likely to invest in the city. Berlin is attractive to many people from without and has the capacity to accommodate them. For those who make their money from outside the city (and spend it here), Berlin is a wonderful place. As the economies of the world become more interconnected and more people are able to work independently and place of work is irrelevant, Berlin will continue to grow. That's just one of multiple factors.

Another factor is that so many other places (NYC, London etc) are prohibitively expensive for most creative individuals to live in. Why escape to the burbs when you can jump across the ocean to an affordable and thriving urban community that is not (yet?!) overrun by faceless entities.
kitkat_77
^^ couldn't agree more. I think the crux of the two sided discussion is the difference between those with a very personal view of Berlin (perhaps one bourne out of having lived there for quite some time) wheras an investor will consider how much sense an investment makes from a purely economic perspective. In this respect, I find it hard to see how Berlin is not a good investment. Of course it has social problems, and there is also the culture of not ownining property... which means that investors have to be prepared to hold the investment for longer compared with markets in Dublin/London where turnover is huge. But everything has a risk/reward profile - if Berlin's market was a buoyant as other capitals in Europe then prices would not be so rock bottom. I view Berlin as a medium/long term investment - certainly anyone expecting to make gains over a 3 year horizon may be disappointed but over 5-10 years i would expect decent real capital appreciation. (In any case, few markets are so booming that you would make a massive return over fees, over a short term horizon)

I think it makes sense for a number of reasons:
Its a capital city - prices here are on a par with Moldova, doesn't make sense
It stands to increase its profile in terms of a tourism centre. (In fact, the point that krostitser makes about lower economic groups being outpriced in other capital cities is probably one of the reaons for Berlin's big artistic community)
Economic growth is has begun and is predicted to continue in Germany - a recent report by the IMF on the fall-out from the sub prime crisis suggests that a slowdown in the US is not necessarily bad news for Europe

Germany is hopefully, emerging from economic doldrums... once growth/income/employment levels pick up then it would make sense that the housing market will follow.
TobyG.
Of course there are drug problems. Well, this is like in every other city bigger than 1 million inhabitants. ever been to hamburg, london, madrid? to me they have a lot more drugs running around.
btw: unemployment rate isn't 17% or just below 20% it's about 15% and sinking.
VenusInFurs
QUOTE (kitkat_77 @ Oct 31 2007, 12:25 pm) *
^^ couldn't agree more. I think the crux of the two sided discussion is the difference between those with a very personal view of Berlin (perhaps one bourne out of having lived there for quite some time) wheras an investor will consider how much sense an investment makes from a purely economic perspective. In this respect, I find it hard to see how Berlin is not a good investment. Of course it has social problems, and there is also the culture of not ownining property... which means that investors have to be prepared to hold the investment for longer compared with markets in Dublin/London where turnover is huge. But everything has a risk/reward profile - if Berlin's market was a buoyant as other capitals in Europe then prices would not be so rock bottom. I view Berlin as a medium/long term investment - certainly anyone expecting to make gains over a 3 year horizon may be disappointed but over 5-10 years i would expect decent real capital appreciation. (In any case, few markets are so booming that you would make a massive return over fees, over a short term horizon)

I think it makes sense for a number of reasons:
Its a capital city - prices here are on a par with Moldova, doesn't make sense
It stands to increase its profile in terms of a tourism centre. (In fact, the point that krostitser makes about lower economic groups being outpriced in other capital cities is probably one of the reaons for Berlin's big artistic community)
Economic growth is has begun and is predicted to continue in Germany - a recent report by the IMF on the fall-out from the sub prime crisis suggests that a slowdown in the US is not necessarily bad news for Europe

Germany is hopefully, emerging from economic doldrums... once growth/income/employment levels pick up then it would make sense that the housing market will follow.

That all sounds like something I read about a year ago in the Economist about Berlin haha.
hallo
we digressed re: the drug sub-topic because someone inquired about the drug situtaion.

yes venus, berlin is in europe. and property is cheap. in the 90s, people leapfrogged over berlin to get their hands on stuff in prague. and now they are hoping to gain here what they were able to do in the czech republic. the only difference is well, the czechs are optimistic people, and that there is industry in prague. cisco and such. but there's no industry here. just like washington d.c. the industry of berlin is politics. period.

i studied economics. but that doesn't make me an expert on the property market in germany. but i would say that local knowledge is very important in cities. as is timing. if someone has decided to invest here, hopefully it's not with the idea that they're going to rent the place out to people and pull in viel Geld. the renter is king. germans are notoriously thrifty. and this is sort of a socialist-capitalist country. germans have the highest savings rate in the world. and the reason germany is the number 2 exporter in the world is because germans aren't big consumers (so the companies have to try to make money outside this market). all of which, i think is important information if one is looking to invest in a city. londoners and new yorkers think socialism = evil. not true in berlin. that's why the communist party has been in control of the government for the past 8 years (or maybe it's 7). wovi can't form a government without them. and nationally they are the 3rd largest party in germany. hmmm what else. the falling dollar is hurting germany exports because the americans (the biggest consumers in the world) can no longer afford german cars and such.

re: decentralization. everything is decentralized, meaning industry is spread out in germany so that you don't have the dire social situations that happened in the 1930s during the depression. so the financial capital is in frankfurt. the auto industry is spread out among the southern states. and so on and so on. this won't change.

sorry for the pessimism. but i've lived here for like forever (it seems) and my spouse is german. so we always see the glass as cracked and half empty. :-)
murphaph
QUOTE (hallo @ Oct 31 2007, 10:17 pm) *
yes venus, berlin is in europe. and property is cheap. in the 90s, people leapfrogged over berlin to get their hands on stuff in prague. and now they are hoping to gain here what they were able to do in the czech republic. the only difference is well, the czechs are optimistic people, and that there is industry in prague. cisco and such. but there's no industry here. just like washington d.c. the industry of berlin is politics. period.

Surely there's as much industry in Berlin as Prague right now? There's also education. Universities rarely close down and students and faculty need places to live. Berlin hasn't been an industrial heartland since before the war for sure but with cheap rents and available labour, coupled to the best transport system in Germany (one of the best in the world), it's not beyond the realms of possibility that insurance companies and banks could leave Munich and Frankfurt for Berlin. It's not a given but it could happen.

QUOTE (hallo @ Oct 31 2007, 10:17 pm) *
i studied economics. but that doesn't make me an expert on the property market in germany. but i would say that local knowledge is very important in cities. as is timing. if someone has decided to invest here, hopefully it's not with the idea that they're going to rent the place out to people and pull in viel Geld. the renter is king. germans are notoriously thrifty. and this is sort of a socialist-capitalist country. germans have the highest savings rate in the world. and the reason germany is the number 2 exporter in the world is because germans aren't big consumers (so the companies have to try to make money outside this market). all of which, i think is important information if one is looking to invest in a city. londoners and new yorkers think socialism = evil. not true in berlin. that's why the communist party has been in control of the government for the past 8 years (or maybe it's 7). wovi can't form a government without them. and nationally they are the 3rd largest party in germany. hmmm what else. the falling dollar is hurting germany exports because the americans (the biggest consumers in the world) can no longer afford german cars and such.

All these factors apply right across Germany yet it seems (correct me if I'm wrong) that you believe an investment property in the south would be an ok bet? Also, tenant protection works both ways-you can have major problems getting them out if they default but the flip side seems to me that it is not uncommon for tenants to remain happy in their flat for many many years, treating it as their own and looking after it for you. Tenants in Dublin are very flighty in comparison. The usual calculation is 9/10 months rent per year to account for vacant periods. It would also be absolutely impossible to buy a flat in Dublin today and make the rent cover the mortgage. It is still possible to buy in Berlin and the property will wash it's face from day one. The americans may have a hard time buying BMWs but Germany could well do very nicely out of the Chinese and Indians-2 billion people and if even a fraction of them can start to afford german made goods (especially high quality machine tools for use in factories) it will benefit Germany immensely. Being an exporting nation is NOT a bad thing. It is a very good thing. Made in Germany still means a lot to most of the world. Even of germans aren't big consumers, that's sort of irrelevant for a property investor as a home is one of the few things even a very frugal german cannot avoid purchasing/renting. They can work away in factories making parts for export but they still live in germany. Also, tenants rights are governed by law. It is always a bad idea to base ones' investments on legislation as it can change overnight. Strong tenant protection could be instigated in Poland tomorrow. Would this make Warsaw or Wroclaw uninvestable? Remember also that one can avoid residential properties altogether-commercial tenants have few rights if they default payment. Yields are also generally higher but there is added risk as you as an investor are dependent on your tenants' business survival or your premises could be vacant. Swings and roundabouts.

QUOTE (hallo @ Oct 31 2007, 10:17 pm) *
re: decentralization. everything is decentralized, meaning industry is spread out in germany so that you don't have the dire social situations that happened in the 1930s during the depression. so the financial capital is in frankfurt. the auto industry is spread out among the southern states. and so on and so on. this won't change.

I'd have said the auto industry is spread out everywhere except the Neubundeslaender (with the small exception of VW in Dresden, more of a showcase plant). I believe the largest factory in the world is in Wolfsburg, and VW make Passats in Emden, Ford European HQ in Cologne. Only the prestige marques are down south (with the possible exception of Saarland (Ford))-BMW (Munich), Audi (Ingolstadt) Porsches/DaimlerChrysler (Stuttgart) but these employ fewer people than VW/Ford.

QUOTE (hallo @ Oct 31 2007, 10:17 pm) *
sorry for the pessimism. but i've lived here for like forever (it seems) and my spouse is german. so we always see the glass as cracked and half empty. :-)

I honestly think you need to see Germany in a more positive light. For a nation in a supposed doldrums for 15 years, it has not collapsed. That shows the true strength of the economy-still the biggest in Europe by a wide margin. People quickly forget how much money was sent east. I think it was the largest ever transfer of money in human history. Germany (unlike many countries) continues to invest in infrastructure even during 'bad' times and is well poised to take full advantage of any upswing.

These are my own feelings which may be completely wrong and I may lose my shirt!
VenusInFurs
Hallo if you feel so negative about the place, why stay?

I find people who lived here during the worst of the economy need to stop living in the past...it's changing. But you're so burnt out on the place why bother? There are lots of cities in the world.
rick_de
[quote name='murphaph' date='Nov 1 2007, 1:11 am' post='1108551']
Surely there's as much industry in Berlin as Prague right now? There's also education. Universities rarely close down and students and faculty need places to live. Berlin hasn't been an industrial heartland since before the war for sure but with cheap rents and available labour, coupled to the best transport system in Germany (one of the best in the world), it's not beyond the realms of possibility that insurance companies and banks could leave Munich and Frankfurt for Berlin. It's not a given but it could happen.

[/quote ]

Dont forget that when Berlin was divided it was possible for German companies to relocate in West Berlin, and be given all manner of subsidies, low nterest loans, tax breaks and so on for doing so. These subsidies are now largely gone.

I lived in Berlin for a number of years from the time the Wall fell. Ive seen and heard all this once before.

I remember people in the early 90s in Berlin saying - including business people: Berlin is going to be Number One in Europe within 5 years/10 years. The population will increase by 1/2/3/4 millions, according to who you asked, property prices will take off at long last, its going to be Boom Town, bla bla.

Well, since reunification its been possible for companies to relocate in the old East, where its even cheaper, and lots of dirt cheap property was suddenly thrown onto the market from eastern Berlin. And not just eastern Berlin was now accessible, but even cheaper property in the surrounding Brandenburg state as well, which had previously been innaccessible to West Berliners in the Wall days. Berlin and the surrounding area now has plenty of real estate space, its no longer tight like it was in the old West Berlin Wall days.

17 years later and Berlin still has over 15% unemployment and no big property boom in sight.. So what industries/sectors has Berlin got, when you give it a good hard look from the economic angle? Berlin is the biggest city on the western European continent. So, we might reasonably expect to find the following:

Finance? - Well no, thats Frankfurt.

European Central Bank then? No, Frankfurt again.

The biggest and greatest stock exchange in Europe? No, you have to go to London for that.

The admin capital of the European Union perhaps? Sorry, not even that, despite being the biggest city in Western continental Europe. Thats handled by Brussels.

Media perhaps? Not especially. Hamburg, Köln and München are all m ajor media centres.

surely there must be something...

Politics, yes, at the federal level. But even that isnt to be found 100% in Berlin.

What else: well, lots of universities. The BVG (public transport authority is apparently a big (the biggest?) employer in Berlin. Siemens? Not much these days, despite having a city district named after them.

As someone pointed out, the city council go in for some whacky ideas, like reconstructing that ugly old prussian monstrosity "Schloß" on the site of the old GDR parliament building, a wasted real estate opportunity. When surely a big entertainment centre - with decent shopping and top quality gastronomy would create more jobs and do more for people`s lives on a practical level. OK, a smaller scale mini-Potsdamer Platz, but that would do more for the economy than that white elephant they are now reconstructing. Another thing which stands out and rankles is their inability to extend the underground line from Reichstag to Alexanderplatz - only a few kilometres - or further - as we were promised when all the plans were being shown off and touted in the mid 90s.

Oh, and that grandly named "Berlin-Brandenburg International" Airport, with intercontinental connections to all over the world, is still in the year AD 2007 not yet built. Tegel Airport in Berlin is micky mouse as ever, with not even an underground line to connect it to the centre. And doesnt offer any intercontinental flights. Oh dear, not doing too well are we Berlin.

So getting back to real estate investment. The upshot is, If I wanted a cheap apartment to live in as an owner occupier for a long long stretch, (and if I also wanted to live in Berlin all over again) then yes, I`d maybe buy in Berlin. But only maybe. Given that rents are so low, Id probably rent and put my capital into property or stock exchange elsewhere. Berlin real estate as an "investment" to provide for solid capital growth?! No thanks! I`ll rather buy in a city with a real economy and a booming economy. Not one thats bankrupt, cant get a decent airport together and yet starts reconstructing some silly old Schloss!
jtw
QUOTE (rick_de @ Nov 1 2007, 7:15 pm) *
Tegel Airport in Berlin is micky mouse as ever, with not even an underground line to connect it to the centre. And doesnt offer any intercontinental flights.

Not true. Continental flies direct TXL-EWR, and Delta flies direct TXL-JFK. There are not many intercontiental flights too and from Tegel, but there are some.
Fribble
Perhaps Berlin could carve out a niche in medicine, pharmaceuticals, and medical technology, since there is no real center for that as yet in Germany (is there?). And it's a shame that the fashion industry is rather dull here, because that would be a natural fit in Berlin.

As for the airports, I wish they'd make Schoenefeld an international hub and continue to use Tegel for short-haul. It's closer to the city center and certainly to the (hideously ugly) Messe, and would be worth keeping as is.

To whomever mentioned the Sony Center being sold at a loss- I'm not sure that's quite accurate. I'd heard that this had been the plan all along, not a sudden drastic decision to cut their losses.
englishbooksandfoods
Return on investment for rental properties is still between 4 and 6% and after 25 years it is yours. Better than a life insurance. All you need is a proper job to get the financing.
Hamburg
The drug dealers provide the atmosphere
billp
QUOTE
Tegel Airport in Berlin is micky mouse as ever... And doesnt offer any intercontinental flights.

A very silly statement. For one thing it isn't true: for instance I'm flying direct from TXL to Bangkok in a couple weeks on LTU. The long delay in building Berlin-Brandenburg International was due partly to legal difficulties - local residents sued to get the project stopped and it had to remain on hold until the legal case was resolved. Tegel was built to give West Berlin a modern international airport (replacing Tempelhof) at a time when PanAm, BA and Air France were the only airlines allowed to fly in here. I happen to think it's a great little airport, and I love the fact that its horseshoe-shaped terminal requires very little walking to get to your gate. Of course it's too small for present-day Berlin, but that will be rectified in due course. Building a world-class international airport always takes time, everywhere. Lots of places have 20 year timelines for such a project.

I think it's great that they're rebuilding the Schloss. There's nothing wrong with restoring the grand edifices of the past, and it completes the ensemble of buildings (all of which are restorations) on Unter den Linden. We really have enough entertainment complexes and malls in Mitte now. If that's what you want, go to Alexa. And we've got our share of post-modern architecture. I wonder if anyone's going to be still admiring these big blocks of grey concrete in 200 years? The idea to bring the Prussian collection from Dahlem to be housed in the restored Schloss is very good. It's part of remaking the historical heart of the city and it will encourage tourism, which is one of Berlin's primary industries.
Conquistador
QUOTE (Fribble @ Nov 1 2007, 10:24 pm) *
Perhaps Berlin could carve out a niche in medicine, pharmaceuticals, and medical technology, since there is no real center for that as yet in Germany (is there?). And it's a shame that the fashion industry is rather dull here, because that would be a natural fit in Berlin.

IMHO, the Munich area is on its way to dominance in the medical/biotech field. I also find the notion of the finance and insurance industries moving to Berlin laughable.
TobyG.
QUOTE (Conquistador @ Nov 2 2007, 6:51 am) *
IMHO, the Munich area is on its way to dominance in the medical/biotech field.

Berlin metro area is, together with munich metro area, leading the Biotech field in germany. Keep also in mind, that Berlin has the one of the biggest hospitals in europe and if it will be a winner in anything (besides tourism and science besides biotech/medical), than in the medical sector.
hallo
rick_de has made a number of good points.

the banking industry is not going to pick up and suddenly move to berlin. whomever mentioned that perhaps hasn't lived in the country for very long or perhaps has never been to frankfurt. and yes, i forgot, part of the government is still based in bonn.

someone asked why i bother staying here if i'm so negative about the place? am i so negative about berlin? or am i just honest? i never said 'i hate the city.' it is a highly liveable place. i have met many wonderful people here. i am only speaking in terms of the economy and the government and not the people.
rick_de
Whether you like the Schloss or not is partly a matter of personal taste. I dont. It will serve as an item on the tourist must-see agenda, one of the attractions of Berlin, but I consider it a wasted real estate opportunity.

In fact I think the Schloss is a very good metaphor for modern day Berlin: reconstructing an old palace that doesnt serve any real economic purpose. A Potemkin construction for a Potemkn "Weltstadt".

I get the impression a lot of the enthusiasm for real estate in Berlin comes from Brits fresh off the UK`s overheated property ladder who arrive dazzled by the bargain basement low property prices in Berlin. But the low prices are there for a reason: the economic base in Berlin is very weak for such a large city and Berliners are not generally interested in buying property. I remember the apartment block I last lived in when I was there. The housing assocation were planning to sell the flats off to the tenants - at low prices and with a big discount on top of that. There was practically no interest amongst the tenants. They all just wanted to know what would happen to their rents if their refused to buy. They were assured that there would be no major changes. And as far as I know, at least when I was still there, no one bought.

Arm aber Sexy. Sums up Berlin pretty well. I`d be willing to be a tenant in Berlin. I would not like to be a person owning real estate there. Berlin is a tenant`s paradise, not a real estate investor`s.
TobyG.
QUOTE (rick_de @ Nov 3 2007, 2:42 pm) *
the Schloss [...] a wasted real estate opportunity.

There are so many "real estate opportunities" in Berlin, that it really doesn't matter. Think of all the empty buildings and all the space wasted for commercial purposes. Is Berlin in need of additional retail industry? No. Do we need additional space for bureaus? No. Do we need flats? No. So, what would be the alternative for the Schloss (not that I like the idea of tearing something historically important down and building sort a fake historical building new)? At least the idea of putting the cultural treasures of Berlin together in one place is a good one. And I support this idea.

QUOTE (rick_de @ Nov 3 2007, 2:42 pm) *
In fact I think the Schloss is a very good metaphor for modern day Berlin

Ironic enough, that most Berliners don't want this building.

Berlin was once a real investment/real estate paradise. Think of all the billions in the pockets of people who once bought property in Mitte or Prenzlauer Berg. Back then, Berlin was really ruined (and, of course, really cheap) - nothing compared to the city today. And who says, that the rents in Tiergarten, Wedding or Neukölln will stay as cheap as it is today? Berlin will never be an industrial city anymore - but it changed rather rapidly into a media/medical/science/service city, the senate is the first one which makes a decent job since ~four years (everyone who knows politics around, knows also, that the local left-wing party, the PDS has nothing to say) and since three years population is rising and unemployment rates are sinking. There is more than one silver-lining at the cloud. Surprisingly, the germans seem to be more optimistic than you.
VenusInFurs
QUOTE (TobyG. @ Nov 3 2007, 5:15 pm) *
There are so many "real estate opportunities" in Berlin, that it really doesn't matter. Think of all the empty buildings and all the space wasted for commercial purposes. Is Berlin in need of additional retail industry? No. Do we need additional space for bureaus? No. Do we need flats? No. So, what would be the alternative for the Schloss (not that I like the idea of tearing something historically important down and building sort a fake historical building new)? At least the idea of putting the cultural treasures of Berlin together in one place is a good one. And I support this idea.
Ironic enough, that most Berliners don't want this building.

Well, seeing as it was UGLY and the east germans tore down the origninal, 500-year-old schloss to build that monstrosity I think it's no loss. Eye for an eye? Who wants an EYESORE in the middle of their city? I'd be happy to have a new Schloss there as long as it looks good.
alex_m
That's such a superficial point of view. What about the historical importance of Palast der Republik? I can understand wanting to restore what was already there if it was an empty site but not spending money the city doesn't have on firstly tearing down part of its history and reconstructing a building which hasn't stood there for over 50 years.
VenusInFurs
I almost feel it's just as the East German government destroyed a building that was there for 500 years. The Schloss had far more history and importance than the Palast der Republik. I think it should be restored. I think it really doesn't matter if it's not original, as half this city was rebuilt anyway.
alex_m
Why replace something that is original with a replacement? The Palast der Republik has far more importance nowadays and to the citizens of Germany than (yet another) palace which many people here don't remember anyway. It's not just a matter of the significance or the aesthetics of the building - in a bankrupt city the costs also have to be considered!
VenusInFurs
If costs are what comes first then why not just sell it to private developers? That would be the most cost effective option. The Palast der Republik is mostly torn down now anyway. Depsite my feelings on the subject it's gone. The city can either build something else, they can sell the property or they can just leave the half torn down frame there as it is.
krostitzer
QUOTE (VenusInFurs @ Nov 4 2007, 2:48 pm) *
they can just leave the half torn down frame there as it is.

now that would be sexy!
alex_m
QUOTE (VenusInFurs @ Nov 4 2007, 2:48 pm) *
or they can just leave the half torn down frame there as it is.

But surely that would then be an EYESORE? Who wants that in the middle of their city?
TobyG.
Well, who wants remains of a wall in their city? And now they're craving for more... Berlin is not about beauty (even if there is some).
VenusInFurs
QUOTE (alex_m @ Nov 5 2007, 12:18 am) *
But surely that would then be an EYESORE? Who wants that in the middle of their city?

I was being sarcastic.
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