Oh jeez, where do I start? For one, SpaceShipTwo will beat this to the punch by a long, long time. If you've got the money that's the ticket to buy in advance. SpaceShipOne (SSO) has already flown successfully (three years ago!) and SpaceShipTwo - the commercial vehicle based on SSO - starts flight testing this year! This project has barely left the EADS press artists' drafting table.
QUOTE (Sin @ Jun 13 2007, 8:50 pm)

Firm rockets into space tourismI predict there's gonna be lots of work available in Toulouse.
God I hope not. EADS' flying vehicle contribution to the ISS is the ATV (Automated Transfer Vehicle). For several years I was assigned to work the operational interfaces between the American and Russian Guidance Navigation & Control (GNC) systems and ATV GNC systems. As such, I know the vehicle very, very well and the rendezvous and docking portion of the mission better than all but a few people.
My opinion, one that I share with colleagues from Houston to Moscow, is that the ATV is bar-none the biggest pile of shit ever meant to top a rocket. Roscosmos and NASA are very afraid of it and for good reason; it's not just likely to fail spectacularly by itself, it's also a hugely dangerous to the ISS and the crew.
There is every reason to be weary of this; EADS just doesn't have the experience and they're further burdened by being big and slow like mega-aerospace companies tend to be. This proposed vehicle is the realm of the small and limber like Scaled, SpaceX, etc. (note that projected cost is 1B Euros. SSO was built and flown for $40M).
QUOTE (Expat Mat @ Jun 14 2007, 1:01 pm)

It's more likely to be 2020 than 2012. Five years is not a long time in aerospace/space.
2020 is closer to never than 2012 is so you're on the right track.
QUOTE (JerseyBoy @ Jun 14 2007, 1:41 pm)

I think that 2012 is very easy to make. They're only going sub-orbital, and not orbital. If the goal was orbital I would say 2020.
I'll give you 20:1 odds against.
QUOTE (JerseyBoy @ Jun 14 2007, 2:03 pm)

The hardest part will be designing and building the vehicle/cabin, and mating it to a (i.e. an existing) launch vehicle. Just gotta use one with the right payload capacity.
The hardest part is every part. The design on the board isn't supposed to mate to an existing launch vehicle, it's a new launch vehicle unto itself. The concept is wholly untested. Don't get me wrong, it's not a bad idea per se, but from drawing board to flight in 5 years with a system that's never been tried before? Unlikely.
I love this space stuff - I dig it so much I made it my career. I'm especially keen on the privatization of human space-flight and ultimately plan on leaving government manned-space work for the (now-embryonic) private field. I have to give kudos to them for at least entertaining the idea, but my professional opinion is that EADS/Astrium isn't up the challenge in the next 15 years let alone the next 5.