Old Man Winter arriving, supposedly

From the German Weather Service:


Rough translation: Expect the current warm Springtimelike weather to change to typical Winter weather with temps around 0 C. Nighttime temps will sink to -5 C by Wednesday at the latest, with some localities sinking even further into the double digits. The long awaited snowfall will likely arrive in the South and East, especially in the foothills of the Erzgebirge and Alps.

I posted this in the current weather in Munich thread, but I'm going to post it again cause the chart is so spectacular. -26 for Munich next Friday/Saturday, long way off but if we're lucky it could happen. This has been predicted for a while now, so even if we don't get -26, it seems like Winter will finally start next week..

I know absolutely nothing about weather and I'm probably waaay off here, but it makes sense that Munich will have winter next week if this past week parts of the US finally received winter.
My reasoning, albeit most likely 100% wrong, weather generally travels west-east. We're west and we just got winter so in due time you'll get it too
I know this is not correct because many things affect weather patterns, changes and all that. There's a massive body of water between us so that'd change it and there are some mountains too (not directly in the way, but to influence it all).
Good thing I'm not a meteorologist otherwise the weather report would be something like- today will be sunny, why? because i just ate some really good cheese... (or some other crap like that).

Hmm.

Mere, you are lovely

A lot of the really cold spells of weather in Germany can be attributed to cold air coming from the east (Siberia)

Remember last year winter didn't really start until the end of January and then stayed until the end of March and into April. Hell, it even snowed the first week of June.

eurovol, we had constant snow from November through May last winter. It got cold end of January, as always, and snowed hard in March, as always (just not usually THAT hard).
But I have been saying winter is not yet over, I knew we would get the January cold. 36 years of Bavarian winters can make you very cynical.

Yeh, last year was excellent, I think eurovol is thinking of another winter.

Crawlie...

What if the siberian winds decide to go the long way round?

Last year was definitely colder and we did have a big snow early in November, flurries the beginning of December and then some snow (not so much) again the week before Christmas, but I remember people complaining about no snow all through January as if winter was over. This year we have had snow (not much, but covered the ground) in early November and early fall weather ever since. All I am saying is be patient and hope for the best. Santa brought my son a sled and I don't want to have to drive three hours so he can use it.

It didn't snow all the time, that's true, but in Munich there was definitely snow on the ground the entire time, from mid-November until mid-April.

And there was plenty of snow in the Alps, unlike this year.

Last year there was a really big dump of snow just around New Years. Around the 2nd and 3rd of January that dumped about 30cm of snow on Munich. From then there was no snow until the end of the month, but in the middle we had quite cold temperatures, with minimums of -15 and max's of -9 but clear skies.

You can see here the weather for last year. You don't appreciate how good it was until you've experienced a shocking winter like 2006/2007. Truly, except for just a few days where it got above 0, last winter was perfect.

Perfect? Brrrr. I was starting to enjoy this winter! However, I did have the winter tires put on the car in October after warnings here on tt - so I suppose it would be good for them to get some use...

light snow fall predicted from Tuesday-Thursday this coming week. Yipee! Maybe the Alps will get some snow and I can finally go skiing for the first time in Europe. Any suggestions where it is possible or will be possible to ski even if old man winter joins me. As long as he drops some lice whilst he is skiing in front of me.

I'm expecting quite a bit of snow in Munich on 31 January and 1 February. Why? On Wednesday, all our stuff will be moved out of our flat and put into a truck. Thursday, we'll be trying to fly to Chicago.

In related weather predictions, expect a big blizzard in northern Illinois-southern Wisconsin on 1 February. They haven't had much winter this year, either, so it stands to reason that those days will be the worst of the season!

Everything is still looking good.. for anyone that is interested, check out the graph below to see how ridiculously warm this month has been compared to other years. This cold spell should bring it in line a bit more though.

Oh I think I did appreciate and make the most of it. Until now I've been saying to myself "oh well, there was always last winter". Feet are itching a bit now though...


Ironic that the first winter after they made winter tyres mandatory there's no bloody snow. Annoying too. Another reason to hope it snows properly soon! Which it will. Plenty of time yet.

I think I'm the only one happy with the weather as it has been so far (obviously not for the fact that it is perhaps abnormal). Snow - no thank you. Makes my accomplishing my daily tasks (with a child and buggy in tow) more onerous.

Ditto you on that one, hams!

Although my stroller's nice air tires with treads are kind of wasted in this weather.

cycling to work is more pleasant when it is dry and snow/ice free. Not so bothered by the temperature, though, just want clear dry paths.

mini-cinzia loves the little pebbles they strew around here to try to prevent people slipping on the ice and snow. Just the perfect size for sticking up your nose to save till later!

How the fuck is MINUS 26 "lucky"? That's fucking awful. also, although your chart says it's based on US GFS modeling data, US predictions for next week are between -5 and 2°C throughout the week, with some scattered snow showers Tuesday-thursday, and temps from 1-4° on the weekend.


That is a ridiculously short timeline. go back only a couple more years and check out the winter of 1993-94, when it was only really cold for two weeks.

woof.

'EL nino' Maaaaan...surf back home must be amazing

Its fucking excellent in my book. This is what winter is all about. I can understand if you don't take an interest in the weather then anything except mild is annoying. But if you do take an interest, then -26 would be something exceptional.

The GFS model is the best one out there in my book. The US forecasting services like weather.com, or any other non local weather services are not though. They are very often wrong for forecasts further than the next day. I'm not so sure that we will actually get -26 in Munich, I just posted the chart because it was a rarity and a sign of things to come. Who knows what will happen next week for sure, but it will almost certainly be colder than -5 at night and 2 in the day like your US sources suggest.


Average temperature for Munich in January over the last 20 years is -1. So I don't think my graph was too misleading.

most weather forecasts are predicting about -1 to -5 at night with day time temps around zero to 5 degrees until about Friday when they drop to -10 at night. not exactly -26 but let's wait and see.

Bring on -26 and lots of snow . We need a proper winter!

Even although the snow has not been that good over the last few weeks, one thing I did like is that people think there is no snow in the mountains therefore no lift queues etc. when skiing...

Winter - yes please! It´ll kill all the weeds and parasites in the garden!

Bring it on. Brand spankin new Palmer board that needs to be taken for a run

From my memories, it rarely snows when the weather is that cold...

Snow should come before it gets that cold..

That old adage "it's too cold to snow". Not because there's a direct correlation but because on the whole it only gets that cold when there are no clouds about.
But -26 will help retain any snow that's already about. So perhaps "bring on lots of snow and then -26"?

Our Dunkel beer didn´t sell as fast this year as last year, I think this was in direct relation to the warm weather. Cold weather outside, makes one more likely to snuggle up in a cozy pub with a Halbe of dunkles Bier. It´s ok though, we´ll have Doppelbock on tap in exactly a month!

Bring on lots of snow, then -26, then Starkbier.
Sounds like a plan.

that GFS model you posted in December was rubbish

Frankly, now that I've been skiing, winter can fuck off. I would be happy if it stayed mild.

Bern, you don't mean that. You're just sore still...and remembering the many hours standing in ski boots .

Dude, I'm walking like I have a stick shoved up my ass. But winter can still fuck off. Give me summer and beer gardens.

Sounds better than prancing around like Captain Jack Sparrow!

The "experts" are saying this year is going to be the hottest year on record, so me thinks beer garden season will be extended (yippee) and that we will not see much more of the white stuff

According to accuweather.com, this week will bring plenty of the white crap.

The ARD videotext is saying that compared to the average of the last 106 years this January has been 6.5°C too warm. Anyhow, it has become perceptively colder since yesterday and this wind and low pressure are slowly but surely driving me crazy (see headache references on The Vent). Gimme 0 wind and 10cm snow, thank you.

I think you'll probably get that this week, and maybe a bit more. I don't think it is going to be very windy (certainly not like last week) and I'd say we'll see at least 10cm of snow here

shit

Don't know about you lot, but it was snowing on me just now. We might get a real winter yet.

Snow at last, but how long will it last ! Wrap up well boys and girls!

I am just in from clearing our bit of sidewalk, the snow is very wet and heavy, and there is lots more coming, according to the ARD weather report for Munich.

Ha ha ha - the poor hausmeister has to clear the snow!

Oh! The Hausmeisterrett isn't going to do it?

Nice. The sky is completely grey and pleasant.

This is MY time of the year. All those summer months of fucking annoying sunbeams casting rhomboid shapes across my TV and monitor are gone, and its nicely hibernation time. Cannot wait until there is enough snow on my balcony to build my annual beer-fridge igloo.

How anybody can get depressed in this gorgeous greyness is beyond me. OK, slipping over is no fun, but apart from that, its great.