German Elections

I watched a two hour discussion yesterday about the possible different coalitions. They seem to have got themselves into a right muddle. Hopefully good sense will prevail and some intelligent and radical reforms are put into place. Who will be leader? I don't mind either Merkel or Schröder. The main thing for me is a strong Government which will really tackle Germany's problems.

Maybe someone can clarify this point for me. Have the final results come through? I thought the final results were not going to be announced until October because the NPD leader snuffed it. Or am I getting confused with a local election.
Sorry to be so thick.


Are Wednesday nights, ok?

The current seat distribition:
CDU/CSU (sorry Schröder, but I'm not seperating them): 225
SPD: 222
FDP: 61
Left: 54
Green: 51

Is very unlikely to change after the vote in Dresden. There are 218,000 voters out of 61 million country wide, and in the last election the CDU won in that area by a slim margin (2,000 votes, I think). It would be a sensation if a seat changed hands based on that district, and wouldn't matter anyway as one seat in either direction won't change any party's position relative to the others.

...bloody hell :excl: ...someone's being a bit over optimistic there me thinks :doh:

Sorry, it's part of my job. Giving people hope when in reality there's naff all.

@AMI

Thanks for that. I've been laid up in bed the last few days and haven't been able to figure things out. The NPD?

Only consolation to me in this fudgy electoral outcome is that all the parties are saying they will not enter into talks with Die Linke.

I read on the BBC news website that Gysi & Lafountaine uphold the right of everyone to a job in their home town with the same employer for life. They`re living in the dinosuar age if thats what they really think they can achieve.

Ive come across quite a few people though in Germany who have the same or similar outlook. With attitudes like that its not difficult to see Germany being well and truly overtaken within the next 10 or 20 years or so by China and other more dynamic countries.

Not sure what your question is regarding the NPD, but I'll try to answer it anyway.

If any candidate for a direct mandate (erststimme) bites it, that person must be replaced on the ballot before the vote can go ahead. It's the same in the UK (One constituency in the north of England in the last election was contested several weeks later, with the Lib Dems holding hte seat). In the US we let the dead person run (a dead bloke got elected to the Senate in Missouri 2000), and the party gets to replace that person with whoever they want, but a special election is held at the next possible time.

In both the cases I quoted from the UK and US, they deceased had a chance of winning. In Dresden there is no chance of the NPD candidate winning, but rules are rules.

The 'zeitestimme' will most likely have no effect on the distribution of seats, which means that whoever wins the direct mandate will simply knock the last person on their party's own Landesliste out of the Bundestag. Therefore, if you are the last CDU candidate on the Landesliste, you are actually hoping that the SPD takes the direct mandate so that you get to keep your job.

It's a bizzare political system (a not very effective compromise between a Westminster First-Past-The-Post system and a pure Proportional Representation system), but then again, the systems in both the UK and US are pretty odd, too.

Thanks for the info. I'm glad I don't have to vote in Germany. Bloody complicated.

My question was really if the NPD got any seats and what % of the vote they got.

It's shocking, I know. For 50 years people in the East felt the state had a responsibility to find them employment. For 50 years people in the West felt that industry had a responsibility to employ them. Totally unsustainable, but the mindset persists.

My GF was at a political talk show shortly before the election and a 'case file'was presented of a woman in a small town in Meck-Vorpommern who spent 6 hours a day travelling to and from work in Hamburg. The question was what should be done for this woman. When my girlfriend told me this she was shocked by my response: 'MOVE!' It's been the solution for millenia of human history, why shouldn't it work now?

I also find myself amaized by the lack of initiative many of the Germans I know show in trying to find work. It's as if they're sitting around waiting for someone to come and offer them a perfect job for life.

No no no, not even close. I don't know what percentage they got, but far below the 5% hurdle.

I have the figures from Berlin in front of me, they got 1.8% of the Erststimmen and 1.6% of the Zweitstimmen. In my Wahllokal (the smallest political division) they got 0.7%, or exactly one vote (I'd love to find out which of my neighbours voted for them).

Oh, jolly good. Thanks.

I notice Hannah is staying out of this one...

QUOTE: My GF was at a political talk show shortly before the election and a 'case file'was presented of a woman in a small town in Meck-Vorpommern who spent 6 hours a day travelling to and from work in Hamburg. The question was what should be done for this woman. When my girlfriend told me this she was shocked by my response: 'MOVE!'

Top marks for the woman concerned for at least taking the job. But 6 hours a day is just ridiculous. But, if she cant/wont move, or at least be a wochenendheimfahrer, then she`ll just have to like it and lump it. Bully for her.

A lot of people from the east have indeed demonstrated willingness to move and have upped and gone west.

But there`s a lot who dont or wont. Not only in the east but in the west as well.

Right now I am commuting daily 1 hour each way to work in a neighbouring town. I have no intention of moving to that town, Im happy where I am, so I commute. And 1 hour is not unusual for Rhein-Main - nor either for London, Paris, LA or lots of other places. Berlin included.

Speaking of which, an acquiantance in Berlin, who also works in IT, and has been unemployed for a good year or so now, was shocked to hear that I commute one hour to work every morning! Again: the attitude that the work should come to me.

But then, thats the attitude of many people in Berlin - that whole city thinks they`re entitled to sit there and have everything come to them.

That was the prime reason I finally left Inselmentalität Berlin and moved to the west.

Oh yes the immobility of the German workforce is a major problem and then they wonder that jobs in industry are going to Poles who dont mind working for a normal wage with little frills and live in less than luxurious conditions Mo-Fri, travelling back to Poland on buses on a fri and coming back here overnight Su, I know because I've used the buses myself a few times to visit the future in-laws.

actually i am quite busy at work cuz I will be off to Rhodes for a week soon

Well I think after Joschka sneaked off now there will be a good (bad) chance for the Jamaica thingy

Suddenly they say that green and yellow is not to far apart from each other.

I am also fed up trying to explain the shitty german vote system to my Liverpudlian. Hard enough to understand for myself. Who won should lead, I think.

I'll follow the raggae news in Greece

Trouble is, everyone says they won, but in reality nobody did.

CDU/CSU is the biggest party, but the largest block is left of center.

Some Linke MPs now say they would support a minority Red-Green govt. If this really goes down to the wire, that would be the most likely outcome. One has to hope for a negitiated solution before that, but that would require egos to step aside.

I think the Schwample is a fantasy and we'll see a grand coalition led by Merkel and without Schröder.

I'm all for a new vote, I think whatever coalition, big or small and multi-coloured, they come up with it just wont work. There has been too much said and too many lines drawn in the sand to allow a sensible result.

Oh, where has he gone then? Missed a lot of news over the past few days due to travel.

Fischer is no longer in the party leadership, but he says he will still take his seat im the Bundestag. It is generally assumed that he will take a high profile job in Brussels as soon as one is available. This was no surprise. He was never going to stick around to be in the opposition, and he is not keen on the Schwample, either.

As for a revote. Hell no. That would be fundementally undemocratic and set a very dangerous precedent. The voters have just been consulted. Just because the political class, myself or anyone else does not like what they said does not mean that we disregard their decision and force them to vote again and again until they tells us what we want to hear. That only happens in EU referedums. The politicians have a responsibility to work with what the voters give them. Furthermore, I am not sure what the constitutional procedure is, but I believe that for a revote the Bundespresident would have to oder it. That would set a precedent of extending very serious powers to an unelected supposed figurehead presidency. If a new election is a real possibility, what is to stop the CDU for stonewalling all negitiations in the knowledge that Köhler will interviene on their behalf? The last thing Germany needs is to have a politicised, unelected presidency. Not to mention how nervous that would make its neighbours.

But with no party having a clear majority we and the rest of those subjected to the decisions of those in power here will suffer over the next (up to) 4 years (not that the last 7 years have been so rosy)


and the voters have delivered a resounding "we dont know" I have the feeling a revote may deliver clearer results.

It's not a matter of getting the results that we/you/I want it's a matter of getting a result FULL STOP


and when they disregard this responsibility and do not work with the result given to them, see Schröder's remarks after the vote.

Furthermore IF the Bundespresident has to act (I dont know the procedure either) I think you will find that it is on request of the Bundestag and not a decision he makes himself as you say he is a figurehead and no more and any such request on his part would be merely a formality. I dont think any of Germany's neighbours would be too worried.

No.

The voters did not give a resounding 'we don't know'. Ask any German who voted and he/she will tell you that he/she knew exactly what they were voting for. Some people voted for one party, others for different parties. That does not mean that Germans don't know what they want, it means that different Germans want different things. That is democracy.

Why should the result be any different after a revote? If I voted for the CDU the first time, why would I change my mind now? Even if you assume that some people would change their vote, the notion that you keep asking people until you get the result you want is sickening.

We have a result. Now we need a coalition or possibly a minority governement. Do I think that is ideal? No. But it works in other countries (Canada, for instance) and it will have to work here, too.

There is a constitutional process to be followed. I know you don't have one in the UK, but it means that there are rules to deal with exactly this situation. Let's let that process work itself out.

Getting the Bundespresident involved in such a politically charged issue would call into question his status as a figurehead, especially with his party as one of the main protagonists. That is not a good precedent to set. Imagine if the Queen, days after an election, called a new one because she didn't like the result.

Should those involved not be able to reach a solution at all the decision can be passed over to Köhler (paragraph 63 of something or other!) who can then decide who will be Chancellor. He does not have to choose from the leaders of the parties, he can take any top politician he sees fit to do the job.

Thanks Archie. Exactly what we don't want to have happen.

Sorry if i'm a little wound up about the revote question, but I find it condesending and not a very good way to promote the values of democracy if you tell the stupid little voters to go back and vote again until they do it right. Here in the east, the result would be even more people not bothering (if we don't vote right our votes don't count anyway) or people voting for more extreme parties (if our votes don't count anyway we might as well waste them on extremists).

Why get het up? Calm down it's not good for the blood pressure.

I am perfectly willing to let the constitutional process run it's course (I dont really have any choice do I?) however I get the feeling that no matter how this goes, without a clear majority the result will be bad news for this country.

Why have you so much concern about the Bundespresident fulfilling his constitutional role cant have it all ways.

I think you will find that it is called a parliamentary democracy. If the governing party cannot govern, then an early election will result for pure political reasons if not inbuilt checks to the system (such as a no confidence vote). If it is a shaky colation, then it will fall apart, no governing etc etc.

I hear you all tut tut tutting about how indecisive the German voter is, blah blah blah. Does no one remember how Major's government had such a small majority that it only got a lot of its legislation passed due to the support of the Ulster Unionist MPs?

Should I mention British politics in the 70s? how many "once every 4 years" general elections were held in the course of 1 decade?

Then again (down, little devil, down)... perhaps this is another German step on the road to imitating Italy. Half way there with the demographic crisis, not quite there yet with the truly stuffed economy (Italians really should get worried!) and now about to enter 50 years of unstable coalition government... I have warned you

and there it is the magic comparison Germany now with the UK in the 70s and in my opinion not far wrong.

I think you will find in a parliamentary democracy that a coalition or minority government is formed and new elections can be held after a vote of no confidence or if the Prime Minister decides to dissolve the parliament. A new vote is NOT held immediately after the first simply because the results are unsatisfying.

Another early election is the probable result of a grand coalition or a schwample. That's fine, but the politicians have a responsibity to first make a go of it with the results of this election. To do otherwise is a slap in the face of the voters.

Again, German voters are not indecisive. They are decisive in differing ways.

Why do I not what the Bundespresident involved? Because I don't want to see an unelected office politicised. That should be avoided.

I think you are wrong there, the electorate as a whole is indecisive and with a large minority of undecided's right up until the day before the election a lot of individuals are also indecisive .

He may be unelected but he has a constitutional role are you saying that only parts of the constitution should be applied? That sounds undemocratic.

That is not what I am saying. Of course he has a constitutional role, but that role is one of last resort. I am saying that the politicians should get their shit together and avoid forcing him into acting. It's already bad enough that Merkel can use him as a negotiating chip (If you don't accept her demands, she can always stall and let Köhler impose her as Chancellor).

If he is forced to act, the Bundespresident will become more than a figurehead office in the future and we will see cut throat politicing going on the next time the office is open. Köhler is from the CDU, as is correct given the make up of the body that elected him, but he is not a partisan and is acceptable to most everyone. If a political precident is set here, the next election will see the parties pushing much more extreme candidates. That's bad for Germany, as the primary role of the President is to be a unifying figure above partisan politics.

they are not indecisive, just devided. The voting in the States was close and nobody said they were indecisive.

There is no point in having another election this early on, either people won't bother to vote as they think it will make no difference, or people will vote for one of the two main parties (at the expense of the smaller parties), or they will vote for a smaller party resulting in more fragmentation. None of the options are good...

It's a complete mess, they should get their acts together

of course the electorate as a whole is indecisive otherwise there would have been a clear majority for one party or the other.

I believe a few people mentioned the "I" word in connection with elections in the States.

When I say electorate I do not mean the individual voters, however in this last vote a lot of voters were undecided (according to the polls) virtually until the last minute this does not reflect on there being a clear choice available for the electorate and leads to indecision.

Mrs. Maisflocke - a German - did not have a clue exactly who to vote for, 'cos "they are all bloody shite"...
Colleagues of Maisflocke - incidently also German - did not have a clue exactly who to vote for, 'cos "they are all bloody shite"...some of them did not even bother vote 'cos the "choice was shite."

If Germans really knew who to vote for, they would have voted good and proper.
Instead, a lot of them ran around their ballot cards like headless chickens because they did not know who they should vote for...!

At least the German politicians are not BUSH! We would all have to pack our bags now and give up on the future here all together if he was here.

I'd like to see a new election in Germany. They've all been shocked by the result, LaFontaine has had his tactical revenge and the second round will be more decisive and effective. The coalition options available now will cause more harm than good. Why make do, when you can try again.

I'm personally angry at the UK government and the British Ambassador in Berlin for the serious cutbacks in Germany. How to insult German-British relations in one go, but that's another story.

That's my pennies worth. No more, no less... and no more to add.

MY GRAND THEORY

Whereas Einstein spent most of his life trying to find a Grand Unification Theory which would tie together all of the major laws and forces of physics (Electromagnetism, nuclear, gravity and so on) I (not that I compare myself to Einstein, but stay with me here...) have my very own little theory about Deutschland which will unfortunately not result in it being über alles in the near term.

As people have mentioned, the electorate is not undecided, but divided. And how divided it is:
1) East v West
2) Prosperous regions (Frkfrt, Munich...) v declining regions (Ruhr gebiet, most of east)
3) Older generation (has all the advantages - job for life -even if incompetent-, great pension and healthcare entitlement, large savings from the wunder years, strong equity in houses) v younger generation (stuffed - no job at all? no job for life, competing in international marketplace where German students are infinitely older and waste all of their 20s doing irrelevant degrees, faced with high prices and skills competition from migrants etc)

Of the three above 1) is something that will take a generation or more to resolve - I see it as Germany's version of abolishing apartheid - bloody tough in the short to medium term, but very much a long term "vision thing" as Clinton would have said

2) happens in every country as part of the normal economic development (see UK coal mining, ship building, manufacturing - its happening in every country)

The crucial one is the third one, which is infinitely compounded by the demographic issues this country has. All the young people (in their 20's) I know here are livid about how their generation will have to:
1) pay of the huge national debt (highest of any G8 country i think)
2) subsidise the growing older generation (pension and healthcare) from a declining working base through ever higher taxes, but yet be able to expect almost nothing in return (the good old social model)
3) compete against china, india, russia, brazil etc etc in general and lower wage high quality places like poland, CZ etc in particular

Ok - sounds like Italy I guess (a point i made yesterday). But Italy (apologies to any Italians here, especially young cute single ones living in Rhine Main if there happen to be any...) has never really amounted to much in the world - apart from making luxury goods for the mafia dons.

Germany on the other hand is the worlds largest exporter, europes largest economy, engine of Eurozone and happens also to make the cars for the mafia dons. And its rich; people have a very high standard of living here - show me poverty here - there is a poverty of opportunity in some cases, but not real living in a shithole poverty like say France or UK. In italy its a family thing - the olds live with the children, the brothers chase their sisters - and hey, its the Med, so people are happy sitting in the sunshine drinking wine and pinching bums. Work? Manjana! Germany is rich, and should be shuddering at the potential thought of blowing the national capital accumulated since the war.

Ok - I have had too much fun slaggin the Italians that I´ve lost the thread here.

Conclusion (dont want to highlight my intellectual failings any further)

Germany is in the throes of a series of divisions the greatest and most imminent of which is a generational conflict that will see a huge burden put on the younger generation at a time when the external environment is getting tougher. Older generation too comfortable for change, younger generation currently not numerous or politically active enough to achieve any change.

Which is why the election has produced a set of results that say the county is divided, not undecided. People know what they want - they just happen to be on opposite sides of a longer term battle.

ps - I´m having a quite day so far - could you have guessed?

Ok, my spelling has highlighted my intellectual flaws, so no further comment necessary.

In my opinion the ones with the most votes are the winner, point blank. No matter how many percent or how much seats are needed blah...

I agree, Jonnyboy, I think.

and before we get our knickers in a stitch calling for new elections or Chancellor imposed by the Bundespresident, remember that it always takes time to build a coalition. I beleive the shortest period was 8 days, the longest (this will not be the exact number) something like 60. It hasn't even been a week.

Fun fact: a few weeks ago The Economist opined that the best goverment for Germany would be CDU/CSU in coalition with the Greens, but they dismissed the idea as unrealistic.

Would be my favourite I believe, CDU/CSU with (hopefully) the balls to change things and the Greens as the guilty conscience in the background but as said unrealistic, one of the lines drawn in the sand.

wondered how long it would be before the CDU/CSU distinction became a factor:

cnn report

Talking to people at work, a clear majority prefer a Jamaica coalition to a Traffic-light coalition.
I wonder if this applies to the rest of Gemany...

people at my place are not happy with the prospect of the Jamacia coalition - they are all saying it will be the last time they ever vote Green if they work with the CDU

'Don't believe the hype', as Flava Flav once so eloquently put it.

50 years of precedent and common sense will not be washed away by Schröder's post election fantasy world.

Jamaica is a real problem for the Greens. They'd alienate a lot of their voters, but at the same time could strengthen their credentials as a pragmatic party. It would all depend on what kind of deal they could get out of the negotiations and how well they could sell that to the public. They won't come cheaply, which is why I don't think it will work out in the end.

There may be a chance now that Joschka's out of the way, who knows

It would be easier now, Fuchs, but the real problem is in the Landesverbande. The Greens have a more 'democratic' party structure than the other parties, with rank and file members getting more of a say in leadership questions rather than simply leaving decisions to the parliamentary factions. If Fritz Kuhn takes over the party leadership, that is a sign that it could work, but there is plenty of opposition. It could easily end in fratricide.

Who knows, but I'm sceptical (although personally I say give it a go).

Spiegelonline.de is now reporting that a new poll shows a small majority in favor of a Kanzler Merkel. There goes Schröder's last claim to legitimacy. If the SDP is smart they'll negotiate a grand coalition ASAP, as doing anything else will be seen as footdragging and only end up costing them more support.

Is it me or or does anybody else find the the obsession here with a party's colour and the different coalition colour combinations intensely annoying? All this Jamaica nonsense ... i thought it was a Schwampel anyway.

Speaking of the Jamaican Coalition, has anyone seen the cover on this week's Wirtschaftswoche? It made me chuckle!

No but I heard on the TV (BBC) last night that there are on average 3 murders a day in Kingston, Jamaica.

It is all a bit of a piss take .. either Greens have to jump right, or FDP to the left .. which will frustrate a lot of their voters as the preferred coalition partners were established in advance.

My initial reaction though was that Fischer has cleared off to make way for the Schwampel.

I wonder what will happen if Merkel does become Kanzlerin, and at some stage has to resign because of coalition problems?

"So Herr Stoiber, did she go of her own free will, or Jamaica?"

CNN very helpfully pointed out that the 'traffic light' coalition could also be called the 'Bolivian' or ' Lithuanian' coalitions.

They ended the report by pointing out that red and black are the colours of the Anarchist flag!

@Maaph