German Elections

Well we knew it would be a close one, but will there be "Eine Große Koalition"??
I just see Germany carrying on entlang die Straße of Stagnation. There will be years of wrangling and not much being done about anything...as per bloomin' usual!!

What do you think?

I agree, Stillstand for the next four years.

I see it that way too. What a mess. Hung parliament. Horse-trading.

Glad I dont have the vote and so aren`t responsible for it!!

But its also sad for Germany`s future that the result is not more decisive. People here just lack the balls to face up to reality and risk any real change. Business as usual...

Nightmare - 1:3 Germans unemployed, 1:2 Germans receiving pension; looks like if SDP stay it will get worse. I know that Merkel would up taxes etc, and in the short term would be alot harder to get by every month, BUT at least I would feel that there would be a future for my son in Germany if CDU get in.

Fingers crossed

Well where can we go where there IS a future? Canada perhaps. Australia... I don`t know.

Whatever coalition combination they finally manage to cobble together over the coming weeks, no matter what parties hold the reins of power, no matter who is Kanzler/in - one thing remains for sure: they have a duty to the people in Germany to get this country`s economic mess sorted out properly. There are big big problems here - and there`s more to come, like the pensions and health costs explosion. No time for any more dithering and trying to weather it out James Callaghan (or Helmut Kohl) style. Crisis - what crisis?

It's the worst possible result. The future of the German economy and social model is really at stake. Reform is vital for it to survive beyond the medium term. If there is no reformist government, then it could be completely finished. Schwarz-Gelb-Grün is now about the only option capable of reform but are worlds apart on some things so this is an extremely unlikely constellation. The SPD, whatever Schröder has said this evening, remains incapable of governing. I'm a bit pessimistic!

"I don't do politics" ...
heard that one somewhere before ???

I'd say there's good chances of a re-vote...

...but will that make a difference?

After witnessing the verbal face-slapping going on between Gerd and Angie last night as to who would lead a grand coalition, I just thought 'Well, if this is a sign of things to come, I guess it's not looking too good in terms of radical reform and progress...'

I just wanted to slap Gerhard Schröder as I watched the Elefantrunden. He's a disgrace to the nation, sitting there looking so smug when really he has NOTHING to smirk about with the state of the German economy and the slur his party made on the CDU's "apparent" Flat-Tax model

I cannot understand why he thinks that he has the mandate to form a new government?!?! :doh: I know there are some extra votes to be counted in Dresden and some others which could give extra seats to either party, but obviously as it stands, Merkel is the new Kanzlerin. Or have I completely misunderstood something here?

I'm so glad to be out of all that lot, but it does upset me to see a country, which I considered to be more "home" than the UK ever was, plunge into even more uncertainty and political stagnation.

I reckon this makes my mind up about getting dual-nationality, so I can vote and sort the bloody country out!

Just at the time when the country needs to have strong decisive leadership (doesn't really matter what colour), they get a result like this.

Same as NL, I I really don't understand is how Schröder thinks he can stay on as Kanzler - can anyone explain the system that means the losers could end up governing and the winners in opposition?

*Sitting here looking at his screen not knowing what to type because words fail him.*

*Thinks: What the f*ck are the Germans playing at?*

:doh:

I see only 2 possibilites.

Possibility 1: "traffic-light" coalition

When you look at the Greens manifesto they are more liberal and reform-minded than the SPD.
FDP is definitely pro-reform.
Now that Schröder has made his SPD-internal enemies visible and got them over to Lafontaine he can have a stronger grip on the party and pursue a more aggresive reform agenda... remaining problem for Rot-Gelb-Grün is the Bundesrat which is dominated by the Union, so could still block all legislation put forward by a government in which they are not included.

Possibility 2: "Jamaica" coalition

Greens are relatively reformist and have a popular leader in Fischer.
FDP and Union are already allied.
Union-led "Jamaica (Schwarz-Gelb-Grün)" coalition could easily push reforms through Bundestag and Bundesrat, where they hold majorities.
Fly in the ointment is Fischer who couldn't possibly remain as foreign minister when the Union want to patch-up relations with the US. As Fischer is the most popular politician in Germany, this makes (IMHO) this coalition less likely than a re-elected Schroeder leading a rot-gelb-grün coalition. And Guido is much more likely to compromise to get into power with Schröder and Fischer than Fischer is to compromise to keep the Greens in power with the Union.

what a complete mess! I know they said it might be close but this ridiculous. I think Dresden has only one seat, and I think they have projected it will go to CDU so there will not be much change in the results.

I don't know what other option they have apart from a grand coalition, as far as I know the Green's have already declared themselves as in oposition and are unlikely to join with CDU anyway, the FDP have been saying for weeks they won't work with the SPD and the SPD have ruled out anything to do with the left. Apparently Schröder has annoyed everybody by saying he can carry on as Chancellor (which he was saying at 7pm), Merkel is refusing to work with him and he with her, so there's a possibility that any grand coalition will be minus both of them!

It's like a blimmin soap opera, but they better sort something out soon as all the top German companies were down at least 1.4% within two hours of the markets opening and they said there will be a big knock-on effect on the Euro.

This does rather illustrate one the problems of a very fair and democratic voting system. It is quite capable of producing an outcome that nobody is happy with.

yep, it's democracy taken to the extreme.

Think if I had voted SDP, and the CDU and FDP managed to form a coalition with the Greens (very unlikely, but still...) and left the SDP out completely I would be very annoyed. Think whatever happens now there are going to be a lot of very unhappy voters!

I don't think Schröder has done himself any favours at all after his performance last night. He called the CDU arrogant, but I think it's a case of the kettle calling the pot black!!

Of course the markets have dropped. Since May the markets have been projecting a clear CDU majority...ooops!! Damn, I should have sold on Friday...ah well! :doh: They'll just drop back to their "normal-let's-watch-the-economy-stagnate-further" levels now.

@rebecca: you are right, the opportunity to have fair and free election can sometimes give strange results. But I have to say that I was surprised (and annoyed) at the turn-out considering it was really close .. under 78%, down on last time!

The low turnout surprised me too I have to say, especially with so much at stake.
But it just goes to show how similar the parties are and how divided the German public is.

I heard on N-TV: reaction from the US on the election result "Germany now plays no more role in world affairs as far as USA is concerned". Mind you they`ve been more or less saying that ever since 9/11.

Maybe the only way out of this mess might be to put together some kind of coalition with a limited programme for a year or so, (like "my aim for this legislative period is to get unemployment down - from 5 million to 4.5 million") and then "go to the country" again and see if they then get a more decisive result.

The only party that has really won out of all this is Die Linke. Thanks to La-Fountain of Yesterdays`s Wisdom, the Blockers Party has achieved just that.

I wouldn't call it a low turnout.

Last time the turnout in UK was higher than this result in Germany was in 1978 (78.8%).

In the last 2 UK general elections the turnout was:
2001 59.4%
2005 61.3%

I was at the Greens election party last night. No one seemed to be able to figure out if they'd won or lost, so I just hit the free beer.

In the end a Grand Coalition is the most likely outcome, although I think it will come after Schröder steps down.

The Schwample is intruiging, but I think unrealistic. The CDU/CSU and Greens are talking now, but the real problem is with the FDP. Odd, but the Greens see the FDP as more distasteful as the Union. Their positions are not all that different on a lot of issues, it's a somewhat irrational dislike. The pragmatic fraction of the Greens would go for it, as would the left of the FDP (the Freiburg Faction), but the more extreme Greens (The NRW Faction) will scream bloody murder.

In the end is won't really matter. We'll have a government even more ineffective as the last.

Points of Clarification:
The vote in Dresden will have no effect on the results. There is a small chance that it could result in one seat changing, but that is unlikely and at any rate inconsequential.

rick_de: do you know who gave that 'reaction from the US'? Last I had heard there had so far been no official reaction.

Schröder is a twat. For the past six weeks every time a reporter has asked a question about the polls he's refused to answer, saying that he isn't interesting in polls. Now he makes an arguement that he should be Kanzler because the polls show that this is what most Germans want. How do you square that circle? He also argues that because the CDU and CSU are really two parties, the SDP really the largest party and he should therefore be Kanzler. I wonder if he also looked at the results and thought 'Wow, the CDU got nothing in Bayern! That's amazing!'

Yes, what a great victory that party has achieved... Did you hear Gisi's speech yesterday evening? I was disgusted at his attitude. He said something along the lines of "The Red-Green coalition has been removed and the Black-Yellow coalition don't have enough votes. And it's all down to us, Die Linke" *big cheesy smarmy grins all round*

Well Mr Gisi, seems like you really care about your country then doesn't it!!

...and a few more million unemployed!!!

Well, it's all a bit of a disaster really isn't it?

But on a lighter note - make your own Kanzler here:

http://www.der-kanzlergenerator.de/

The smugness of the Linke is most odd. Considering how high they had been in the polls, 8% is a pretty big failure, and they didn't do particularly well in west (LaFontaine lost his direct mandate, while my neighbours voted Gysi in even though he doesn't even live here).

The only real winners seem to be Westerwelle (feel bad for him if he gets blocked out of government by a Grand Coalition) and Stoiber. His look of Schadenfreude was classic standing next to Angie. He got more votes three years ago than she got this time. Stoiber and Claudia Roth are supposedly negotiating right now.

I'd like to the the Greens and FDP negotiate first and together approach the two large parties and see what they can get. Instead, it looks like the CDU and Greens are negotiating and will screw the FDP with a 'take it or leave it' deal.

rick_de: do you know who gave that 'reaction from the US'? Last I had heard there had so far been no official reaction.

It was a brief item on N-TV last night, I think it was something like "ein Sprecher im Washington kommentierte dazu.."

Agree with you Northern Lass. I too found Gysi`s smugness hard to take. But then that`s what those two Geyser-Gysi and La-Fountain-of-Wisdom are in business together for: to block and resist change.

In thus far, they`ve achieved their aim.

A pathetic result for sure but maybe there is the seed of a reasonable government,

The CDU/CSU would have to get the FDP in as the reformers for the economy as well as being set on the trade unions and the greens would be the protectors of the environment as well as pushing for the use of alternative energy (the oil problem won't go away). The greens are a lot more forward looking than the SPD.

The Bundesrat would have to be reformed as planned, a friendly regierung might get more things done quicker.

... Smartarse Schroeder should be thrown onto the rubbish pit for his
performence yesterday.

Was he drunk? I mean that seriously.

taken from the beeb site

Obviously the results are v. bad for Germany, but I've been totally blown away by the way Schroeder is behaving.

Despite the arrogance, the smugness and the unreasonableness, there's something about him that's really made an impression on me.

I think it's a grudging admiration for someone who's prepared to be so astonishingly frech ...either that or my hormones are playing up!!!

You just like the bad boys Lilac Emily!

I never would have believed it of myself (being such a good girl ), but it certainly seems so... the badder the better

Have to say I feel sorry for Frau Merkel. She comes across as an honest, straighttalking person, who tells it like it is. Without any spin or playing to the audience - in stark contrast to Slimebag Schröder and all the spin that he utilises to the full, a real "raffinierter", smooth-operator.

I agree rick. I have not been able to understand why Germans seem to love him so much. All the polls showed that they liked the CDU platform more then the SPD, but they liked Schröder more than Merkel. I see the other way around.

As for the reaction from Washington:

I don't know who this person was speaking for, but it was not the White House, State Dept. or any other government organ, as they have said they will withhold all comments until the election outcome is clear. I suppose you could interview me and say "ein Sprecher im Berlin kommentierte dazu..", but that doesn't mean that anyone should pay any attention.

May have been a Sprecher from the Washington Post or NY Times or something. In other words, a journalist asking a journalist..

Thank you for clarifying that. Your original post:


made it sound like an official statement, which it is not.

I think you'll find that is called "politics" and charisma

If it was the honest clever people who won all the time, then the world would be run by academics

Just think of good old slick Willy Clinton - he may have trouble keeping the tiger on the leash, but he is the most charasmatic, coherent, impressive politician of a generation anywhere in the world - give him a topic, he will talk fluently, knowingly and compassionately about the subject. See Katrina, see Tsunami.

Politics isnt about a transfer of information and sense to the voters. Its about making a connection with them.

I'm with you on this one, Jonnyboy.

The actual politics goes on behind the scenes - most people probably haven't a clue what either/any party policy is on anything other than the "biggies" (unemployment / health etc), and even when they do know what it is, they might not understand it or its implications most of the time (I count myself in here too, by the way - I'm not an economist so I can't really say what eg raising MwSt will actually effect in the long run).

So who the party chooses to represent itself and its policies with is, in my opinion, very very important.

Merkel I'm sure is a good politician, but a Kanzler/in has to do more than just be good at the "nitty gritty" - they have to be able to bring it across to the people, and represent the country too. She has absolutely no stage presence whatsoever - even the way she stands looks defeatest. Compare that to Schröder and it's clear why the German people (and me too now! ) prefer him.

If you ask me, its just Charisma - the bloke never had a clue about politics.

He asks for a vote of no confidence, gets it, then expects the nation to re-elect him even though he lost the confidence vote, and then thinks he can fool the sheep even more by claiming he "won" the election despite the fact that he got less votes than his enemy and less votes than ever.

All talk but no action - thats not politics. Politics is talk and action.

I am not a Merkel fan, but Schröder has time and time again proved that is only strong point is verbally fooling the masses. If only he could actually govern as good as he speaks...

now who told you that... it's all talk!

But he's not even that charismatic, is he? Maybe I'm just immune to his charm, but I find him arrogant, untrustworthy and opportunistic, and always have.

Clinton could steal your wallet and make you thank him for it, but Schröder is no where even close to that.

I don't get it. But at least his performance Sunday night seems to be costing him support.

Looks like you have actually been listening to Gerdie too much...

Well, let me think. Hmmmm, who was the last charismatic politician in Germany... hmmmmmmmm

Germans in any walk of life are not renowned for charisma

And to those who say Schroder only talks the talk but does not deliver the right policies - politics is about power, nothing else

Having the right ideas but not having electoral support to deliver them is useless. I would rather be a charade in power who can do some of the things I think are needed than have a long list of great ideas in opposition.

Which is where charisma makes a difference - it gets you into power

well considering he's on his 4th wife he's obviously quite good at fooling people

Hmmmm which goes a long way to show that, if the charisma of the politician the main deciding point is with the , the majority of the electorate is not qualified to choose their own leaders. A philosophical point I know but one worth thinking about.

Ah well a country gets (or not in this case ) the leaders it deserves at least I cant be blamed for this in anyway, not having the vote.

one of Schroeder's best quotes (below) was in August 98 when he smugly announced

" Ich habe immer gesagt, ich will mich messen lassen an der signifikanten Reduzierung der Arbeitslosigkeit. Und ich füge hinzu: Wenn wir das in der nächsten Legislaturperiode nicht schaffen die Arbeitslosigkeit zurückzuführen und das Ausbildungsplatzproblem zu lösen, dann haben wir es auch nicht verdient wieder gewählt zu werden." - August 1998

"I have always said I want my performance to be measured by the significant
reduction in unemployment, and I add: if we don't achieve a reduction in
unemployment and solve the problem with the lack of apprenticeship places
during the next period of government then we don't deserve to be re-elected"
-August 1998

that was when unemployment was just above the 4 million mark ...it is
now well over 5 million and as Wolfgang Clement freely admitted the real
figure is more like 6.5 Million... some performance Gerhard !

Bloody hell I have too much work today that should have read:

which goes a long way to show that, if the main deciding point, with the electorate, is the charisma of the politician, then the majority of the electorate is not qualified to choose their own leaders.

I need more sleep

That is very true particularly in the case of Angela Merkel who won a Pyhrric victory, even though she is correct on the need for reform there is no way that she will ever be able to get it through.

As Eric Margolis said in his latest column "Germans like there cushy welfare state and vote against politicians urging change".

Just look at VW they are in big trouble but the attitude of the unions is I don't care.

Germans like the French are not desperate enough to demand change.