Dear Democrats Around the World,
This is Wednesday Wire No. 103, 27 June 2007
There will be no Wednesday Wire next week, No. 104 will appear 11 July
Topics This Week:
1. It’s time to select the site for the 2008 DA Global Caucus.
2. The Republicans are in deep trouble – a potpourri of calamities
3. Rudy, Mitt, and John – The Top Tier is sinking fast
4. Three Supreme Court Decisions and what they portend for the Roberts Court
5. State By State
6. Reading Recommendations
And Finally…
1. It’s time to select the site for the 2008 DA Global Caucus. With the Delegate Selection Plan on its way to the DNC for review and approval, the next step for overseas Democrats is the selection of the site for the Global (and possibly one or more regional) caucuses. The deadline for expressing your favorites was 3 pm today and the choices were (alphabetically): Bali, Brussels, Malta, Montreal, Stockholm, Vancouver, Warsaw, Other. The winner is…no, you have to wait for Christine to announce it.
2. The Republicans are in deep trouble – a potpourri of calamities. In the past two weeks, the number of Republican calamities, bad press, loony occurrences have been phenomenal. A few examples:
a. Bush invites the 100+ winners of the Presidential Scholars Program to the White House and 50 signed a hand-written letter asking the president to end the torture of American prisoners. The President read the letter immediately and then announced that the US does not torture anyone. The kids see right through this guy.
b. Dick Cheney announces that he is not part of the Executive Branch and gets the triple whammy – harsh and sarcastic treatment from Oberman, Stewart and Colbert. The White House deputy press secretary calls the whole issue “a serious constitutional question’ while most commentators call the assertion ‘absurd’ and ‘silly.’ All this to avoid having to follow the President’s Executive Order on the handling and destruction of classified materials.
c. The next day, President Bush announces that he doesn’t have to follow his own Executive Orders either, but doesn’t claim that he is not a part of the branch of government he heads. The Executive Order specifically applies to every part of the Executive branch that has classified materials – no exceptions listed.
d. Sally Quinn of the Washington Post claims that Republican Senators, led by John Warner of Virginia, will ask Cheney to step down for health reasons and then push to have Bush name Fred Thompson Vice President. Cheney will have his pacemakere replaced this summer. It would be hard to imagine that the House and Senate, would agree to vote for Thompson, since he would instantly become the nominee-designee for the GOP.
e. Richard Lugar announces on the Senate floor that he no longer supports the ‘surge’ in Iraq and Senator Voinovich of Ohio follows suit. The trickle of Republicans breaking ranks with Bush may become a flood. House conservatives, angry with the president over the immigration bill, are suggesting that they might not support Bush on Iraq anymore either if the immigration bill passes.
f. J. Steven Griles, former No. 2 in the Interior Dept was sentenced to 10 months in prison for lying to Congress about his relationship to Abramoff. Meanwhile Congressman John Doolittle of CA is getting closer to being indicted for his.
g. Latest polling shows Bush approval between 26 and 32%, lows in every poll; support for the was at 30-67 in CNN/Gallop poll (which notoriously shows higher for Republicans and Bush than other polls) and that young Americans identity themselves more and more as Democrats and liberal on the issues. For the first time, a majority of Americans believe the Iraq war to be morally wrong 54-42. But 41%, an increase of 5% since 2005, believe Saddam Hussein masterminded 9/11. Go figure. Meanwhile, Republicans account for 25% of the electorate, Independents 34 and Democrats 35.
It goes on and on…including the fact that SMU, my alma mater, will host the Bush library. Although no formal announcement has been made, architectural bid proposals (only for SMU) have been requested from 11 firms; decision by 30 July.
3. Rudy, Mitt, and John – The Top Tier is sinking fast. It’s not looking much better for the Republican big three:
a. Rudy really had a bad week:
(1) . His South Carolina campaign manager was indicted of federal charges of cocaine distribution. Tom was replaced by his father, former congressman Arthur Ravenel, who once called the NAACP the “National Association of Retarded People� and then apologized to mentally handicapped support groups for comparing them to African Americans. The mainstream press is picking up this story; this may be a “Mocaca� moment for Giuliani unless he quickly fires Ravenel, who was heading up the whole southern operation for Rudy.
(2) Giuliani, it was revealed this week, refused to attend meetings of the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group last autumn, of which he was a member and later replaced for his lack of interest.
(3) New York Mayor, Mike Bloomberg, whom Rudy supported in Bloomberg’s bids for election, resigned from the Republican Party this week to possibly make an independent bid for President.
(4) A close Giuliani friend, former Monsignor and Catholic priest Alan Placa is working for Guiliani’s security consulting firm. Child advocates are demanding he be fired by Rudy since Placa was defrocked by the church for sexual misconduct with children.
(5) Christine Todd Whitman, former NJ Governor and EPA chief, told Congress this week that she had demanded that Giuliani instruct emergency cleanup workers at the World Trade Center to wear protective masks and clothing, which Rudy refused to do, according to her testimony. (It’s hard to know the truth here, Whitman was earlier quoted to the effect that there was no danger at the Trade Center; hundreds of former rescue workers have suffered crippling lung injuries from working there, many have died.)
b. Mitt Romney is having problems of his own. He raised $21 million in the first quarter, has reduced the expected figure for Q2 to $14 and admitted to the press that some of it will be his own money; how much we will know next week. In January he told reporters that having to give to his own campaign would be a “nightmare’ for his chances. In the meantime, conservative religious leaders are continuing to say that they will not support a Mormon for president. Mitt has been pushing hard for fundamentalist support as the ‘conservative’ challenger to Giuliani and McCain.
c. Big John is in deep trouble. His support in Iowa and Nevada has slipped into the single digits, not that far ahead of Mike Huckabee. He continues to downplay his fundraising problems (he might not make $10 million this quarter) and newspapers are reporting that he may drop out by the fall. Some sites are asking readers to name the first drop out in the GOP field and McCain is getting a lot of mention. The two “I’s� Iraq and Immigration are killing his chances.
Meanwhile Fred Thompson sits in the wings, but some are questioning whether he has the fire in the belly to make the race. All of this is making Gingrich’s playbook look good, unless Huckabee or Brownback become major candidates.
4. Three Supreme Court Decisions and what they portend for the Roberts Court. A new 5-4 split has emerged on the court and the bad guys are winning every time. This week there were three decisions that suggest we may be faced with a right leaning court for some time:
a. In FEC v. Wisconsin Right to Life, the court struck down the donor provisions of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law regarding corporate, union and interest group funding of political ads before an election. So long as the ad does not advocate the election of a person, the ad cannot be stopped from appearing 30 days before a primary or 60 days before an election as the law had required. The ads can be against a candidate by name. Thomas and Alioto opined that they would have voted to overturn McCain-Feingold in its entirety. The decision is seen as a huge victory for corporations. Expect a lot more TV advertising next year.
b. In a case involving the first amendment speech rights of high school students, the court rules that those rights take second place to the school’s right to stop speech that might favor illegal drug use. Thomas and Scalia opined that they did not think students had any free speech rights in the school to begin with.
c. In a third case, the court overturned the legal exception for citizens to file lawsuits against government agencies spending practices that applied to religious issues. The net effect of the decision is that Bush’s Faith-based initiatives are protected from citizen legal challenges under the provisions of the constitutional mandates regarding the separation of church and state.
Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, Alioto and Kennedy are coming together to form a conservative block that may overturn many liberalizing decisions made by the courts over the past 50 years. The most reluctant member of the group is Kennedy, who in the student free speech case was influenced by the fact that illegal drug use might have been the motive for the student sign display as the Olympic torch passed through Juneau, Alaska. Scalia, Thomas and Alioto are hard-core; Roberts slightly less so.
5. State By State.
CALIFORNIA. The state Republican Party is being run by Illegal Aliens!! It is (was) true. The Political Director was a Canadian who had no previous experience, but who was hired under a special provision of the immigration laws that gave temporary work authorizations to those who have special skills (H-1B visa). The Chief Operations Office for the party was an Australian who was ordered to be deported in 2001, served a month in prison before filing a wrongful arrest suit. This may not be too surprising, remember that the Republican governor is a former Austrian, who illegally owned and operated a construction business before become a famous body builder, actor and Kennedy in-law.
NORTH CAROLINA. Last fall, Larry Kissel came within 329 votes of defeating right wing screwball Robin Hayes in NC-08. Larry managed to do this without help from the DCCC, who were not impressed with Larry’s money raising abilities. But his ‘on the ground’ activist campaign attracted a lot hard working folks and this time around the DCCC has announced that it will fully fund Kissel’s rematch with Hayes, touting a new approach that takes account of ‘movement’ as well as money. This may be good news for activists all across the country. In the meantime some bad news, NC-13 Congressman Brad Miller has announced that he will not challenge Elizabeth Dole in the Senate race next year. Miller is the fourth major NC Dem not to take on the very vulnerable Dole. Unless a solid, experienced candidate can be found, Dole will win reelection.
NEW HAMPSHIRE. Among the Senate races that are of great interest to Democrats is that held by John Sununu. Katrina Swett is running for the seat. Her claim to fame is her chairing of the 2004 Joe Lieberman for President campaign and her assertion that being anti-war was a “sin� when she supported Joe against Ned Lamont last year. After Joe held a fundraiser for Republican Senator Susan Collins, Katrina saw her chance to distance herself from her “good friend� Joe and contribute to Representative Tom Allen’s campaign in neighboring Maine. Swett is seen by the liberal blogosphere as a disaster in the making if she wins the nomination and the news that Jeanne Shaheen is seriously considering a rematch with Sununu has the state party and activists buzzing.
VIRGINIA. Speculation is growing that Republican Senator John Warner will not run for re-election, but will wait to announce that fact so that VA-11 Republican congressman Tom Davis can set himself up as the prohibitive favorite for the GOP nomination. George “Mocaca� Allen has already announced that he will not run, but former Gov Gilmore (once he drops out of the presidential race) and other Republicans are interested, so expect a primary battle. If John does drop out, Mark Warner, for former popular Governor and one-time top tier Democratic presidential candidate, will make the race for us.
WYOMING. Dem Gov. Dave Freudenthal, as expected, did not challenge the constitutionality of the state law that required him to appoint the Republican Party choice to replace the late Craig Thomas. Freudenthal chose state Senator John Barrasso to fill the remaining term and Barrasso immediately announced that he would run to fill out the four remaining years of Thomas’ term in 2008. That makes two Senatorial election in Wyoming next year, but we will be pressed to win one of them. Barrasso is totally conservative, – anti government tax cutter, anti gay, anti abortion, anti-environment, thinks talk of global warming is ‘Gore rhetoric� a NRA “A list� gun enthusiast.
6. Reading Recommendations. Recommendations 5-8 below are the four part series that appeared in the Washington Post from Sunday to today on Dick Cheney. A major breakthrough for the corporate press and particularly for the Washington Post.
a. “A 10-Step Plan for Antiwar Activists� by Bruce K. Gagnon at
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article17880.htm b. “Hamas May Find It Needs Its Enemy� by Craig S. Smith and Greg Myre at
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/17/weekinre...agewanted=print c. “ Justices Loosen Ad Restrictions in Campaign Law “ by Linda Greenhouse and David Kirkpatrick at
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/26/washingt...agewanted=print d. “The Progressive Case Against the Immigration Bill� by Trapper John at
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/6/25/73229/6647 . Bush has been complimented by Democrats for his push for immigration reform that includes steps to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Here’s another look at other aspects of the proposed new law that might not be so good. Germany has had problems for many years with groups who can’t become citizens for one reason or another; perhaps a lesson to be learned.
e. 'A Different Understanding With the President' by Barton Gellman and Jo Becker at
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/cheney/chapters/chapter_1/ Read e through h in sequence.
f. “Pushing the Envelope on Presidential Power� by Barton Gellman and Jo Becker at
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/cheney/chap...elope_on_presi/ g. “A Strong Push From Backstage� by Jo Becker and Barton Gellman at
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/cheney/chap...rom_back_stage/ h. “Leaving No Tracks� by Jo Becker and Barton Gellman at
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/cheney/chap...ving_no_tracks/And Finally…
Some other Republican Senators have indicated they no longer support the president on Iraq, but Lugar holds the unchallenged position as Republican guru on foreign policy matters. His defection, which does not yet include withdrawal deadlines, is significant.
"In my judgment, the costs and risks of continuing down the current path outweigh the potential benefits that might be achieved," Lugar, R-Ind., said in a Senate floor speech. "Persisting indefinitely with the surge strategy will delay policy adjustments that have a better chance of protecting our vital interests over the long term."
Best regards,
John McQueen
Heidelberg, Germany
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