Bird flu reaches Germany

Vogelgrippe hat womöglich Deutschland erreicht

The article is in German, but basically it says that 2 of 4 dead swans found in Germany are suspected of having bird flu. They were found on the Island Rügen in the Ostsee.

It was also confirmed in Iran and has spread throughout the northern part of Nigeria and into the Niger River basin.

Topic continued from: Bird flu on its way to Europe

Yahoo: Bird flu hits Germany

I see all those naysayers have now gone quiet. More bad news from the bird flu front. Seems it may now be in migratory birds. That will simply spread it faster.
7 months from Asia to Africa and Europe. That was even a bit faster than I was expecting.

So now what ?

We're all going to die, like they have in China.
By the way yesterday more than 100 peolple were killed on the roads in Europe, the same amount will die today and tomorrow and the day after that... 40000 per year, so be careful going to work today!

Don't panic, don't panic!

There is more to the bird flu than people dying. Think of the economic impact. Think of the millions upon millions of chickens and birds being culled. Think about the local farmers. Think about having to stand for hours in traffic as car wheels get sprayed down. Think about going through security at airports and having to go through extra screening and shoe decontamination. Think about the extra cost of shipping goods and people across borders. Think about this as a possible inflationary mechanism that will cost you extra. Does that make you feel better?

I don't think the naysayers have become quiet, in fact I (as a naysayer) never disputed that the avian influenza will effect birds. I even addressed the economic impact concerning poultry production before your posts started to focus on this aspect. What I dispute is that this will cross over and become a human epidemic. I do not believe that this will cause a wide spread apocalypse as you have been describing.

like when Britain had a foot and mouth outbreak a couple of years ago


as bm says, the naysayers haven't gone quiet. Nobody doubted birds would get infected - the argument was that it just seemed highly irresponsible to
i) go around scaring all the schoolkids back in October-November
ii) for people like you to use up vaccines this year that would have been put to better use being given to people who are at a much higher risk

yeah think of all the poor kiddies who now have nightmares everytime they have to go and feed the ducks!

well someone (hockeywidow??) certainly mentioned that many of the schoolkids were getting upset about dying from bird flu. Totally OTT scaremongering in my opinion

Good news!!!

Bad news

The H5N1 virus can mutate to one that is human transmissable by co-infecting people with a normal strain. It is less likely to become co-infected if you have been immunized. As a First Responder with the Fire Department, I am required to be vaccinated. The spread of the virus to more and more regions also brings the virus in contact to more and more people thereby increasing the chances of a co-infection and thus a mutation that allows for transmissability. I give you the facts, use them however you like.

I think this is what concerns most people. It can mutate to one (could might be a better word) that is human transmissable. It could mutate to something less severe. It could mutate to anything and the chances of only that portion of the virus that makes it transmissable in humans is not likely.

No one doubts your concern, but some doubt the eventuality of your concern.

This Link is a token of appreciation from me to eurovol since he is nice enough to keep us updated about Avian Flu in Europe and most importantly YOU yes YOU LOVE KIMCHI TOO!

Kimchi anti flu

sure, of course. But we're at the end of February and have a couple of dead birds on Rügen. The chances of humans contracting it in the nearest future in Germany (and thus perhaps risking a mutation) are so minimal as to be negligible IMO. Any mutation is far more likely to occur somewhere further east

Air conditioner-good
Anti bird flu AC- scam scam no thank you mame!

Yeah, I saw a Microbiologist from DE suggesting a similar thought. The virus can mutate anywhere and at anytime. Fortunately for us, there has not been a second strain this year of major proportions. Still, the Nigeria situation and the migratory return of birds due soon is troublesome enough. The fact that it is popping up now all over before the migration season begins is rather weird and not in a funny haha way.

What to do now?
Do not play with dead or sickly looking birds.
A bird shitting on you is not good luck.
Wash your hands often.
Wash your hands using an ethanol based cleanser after preparing uncooked chicken products.
Don't visit chicken farms this year.
Thoroughly cook chicken and eggs before consumption.

Basically, the same thing you would do to avoid getting salmonella.

Dammit! Why don't you spoil all my fun.

Though I am throughly opposed to the "culture of fear" tactics that have taken over our media and this thread, to put your head in the sand on this issue is just as bad.

Some of the top epidemiologists have warned that the likelihood of a pandemic is very real and not "negligable". By the way, that flu pandemic could also come from a strain completely unrelated to H5N1, it is just that the bird flu thus far in its present form has a 50% mortality rate, and so that is higher than traditional influenza epidemics and so is tremendously worrisome.

That said there is not a whole lot we can do to prevent what will happen. And though we look to the past epidemics on this to attempt to predict the future, as several have mentioned, we can not say with surity that there will be transmission or that once there is transmission what that will translate to in terms of outcome. So I do wish persons would not state hypotheticals as fact!

Working in medicine it is clear that no western country, let alone a 2nd or 3rd world country, will be able to handle the sheer volume of patients, whether from a pandemic or serious natural disaster. So perhaps the best thing one could do is to write to your representatives requesting better funding and training for medical personnel and emergency services. As we saw in Katrina, these are seriously lacking even in one of the worlds richest countries.

Prepardness in any situation will always improve the outcome...whatever our world faces.

fortunately German and European governments aren't just sticking heads in the sand. Tamiflu stocks have been ordered and there are strict instructions for poultry handling (they all have to be resticted to their coops again from around about today I think). Their actions and the general awareness is what is helping to keep the chances of a mutation to human form within the next 6-12 months fairly negligible - hence a pragmatic attitude is required rather than abusing the current 'flu vaccine shots and insisting on vaccination for all kids too this year (which was the original cause of this apparent 'nay saying')


of course it is - I didn't say it wasn't. I just doubt that such a pandemic will originate in Germany (or western Europe for that matter)


naturally. But there is a balance to be struck between preparedness and being pragmatic and realistic, and there's an economic issue too - thats why the government has to decide where to prioritise in terms of investing its money. I think the preparations made so far are about right.

No having sex with chickens either.

Quotes from last October on this thread - which is what I'm referring too:

@BR: I do agree that the EU is taking this issue much more seriously than other areas and luckily have better resources with which to even do so. The point I am trying to make is to be prepared as possible without scaring the bejesus out of everyone with visions of apocalylpse ruin, as we have no real idea what will happen.

I will disagree with you on the influenza immunization point. We need to increase production so that a greater percentage of the population can be immunized, as Tamiflu, as I am sure you are aware, is not a cure for influenza, and in fact there are real debates going on about the effectiveness of it. May turn out to simply be a huge money makers for the drug companies with minimal benefit.

In terms of where the next pandemic strain origionates; I am not sure how important that is, as Europe will ultimately be effected.

Those most at risk of the normal flu are the young and the elderly. That is a fact jack. It is also advisable that others at risk get the vaccine as well. This is not abusing the vaccine. It was made to be used. The biggest problem is that people weren't actually taking advantage of this because they spread horror stories of having the vaccine and still getting the flu. The problem with that is, they did not get the flu, but most likely a common cold virus. The flu is something totally different. I get a cold almost every year, but I have had the flu a total of three times in my life. I will take a horrible cold over the average flu anytime.

Yeah, just take shit out of context. Now go pull up the posts where I said people need to get all their shots. Not just flu, but MMR and tetanus, as well as, Hep A and B. The cost is minimal compared to the disease. Same as getting personal insurance, lawyer insurance and renter's insurance.

very true. Just as well I bought some biotech shares!


indeed, with all probability Europe would be affected irrespective of where a human based outbreak occured. If it occurs in the far east though (which I would guess is most likely), that could give europe 6 months or so to develop a decent vaccine

More like 6 weeks and even if it gave Europe 6 months, that is still not enough time. Influenza vaccines for winter 2006/7 have already been formulated last year and are now in production. We don't have the capacity to produce any vaccine that would be needed within 18 months.

I don't see how its out of context. All my recent posts have been saying that it was OTT to scare schoolkids and over use the 'normal' vaccine, that would have been better suited going to the people who really needed it this year (as you say yourself, the young and elderly). These quotes illustrate what I was referring too (as I didn't want to be accussed of sticking my head in the sand and ignoring the whole issue, as I was above). In what way are they 'out of context'.


of course its minimal - I don't remember claiming it wasn't. The main issue was that stocks ran out/low, thus endagering the life of those quite possible fatally affected by 'normal' flu this year, not any costs involved

That is a hope we can't bet on AT ALL!!! You seem to have FAR to great of faith in the power of the medical field to just produce a shot or pill that will fix everything. The flu shots we have today are often hit or miss and are not effective in at least 30% of those who are even immunized. Not to mention we simply don't even have the capacity today to produce enough of the traditional vaccine, as you even address in why many of those most vulnerable did not receive the influ vaccine last year.

It is a total pipe dream to think that if this mutates that we will be able to prduce and distrubute a safe and effective vaccine in months.

yeah I agree of course vaccines are going to be hit and miss and limited somewhat in terms of supply. Still think 6 months preparation is better than 0 months (which was all I ever claimed)

All I and many other have said since the thread started last autumn sometime is that the 12 months from that point are way too soon to start thinking about human cases decimating Germany/europe, and so there should be some degree of restraint in terms of scaremonging, and the actions taken should be concentrated on preventing spread between birds (keeping poultry indoors) and possibly exploring enlargement of vaccine production plants. eurovol seems to have interpreted this as 'us' being 'naysayers' and claiming there will never ever be anything to worry about in terms of bird flu. If a human mutation does finally break out at some point next year or the year after (which is not unlikely), no doubt eurovol will be saying 'told you so naysayers'. Nobody has said it isn't a potential problem - there have just been varying degress about what degree of 'scaremongering' is rational and also the potential speed of spread - this has somehow been interpreted as naysaying and sticking heads in sand.

Uh, aren't schoolkids young?
Scaring kids is not a good thing, scaring parents into doing the right thing is. The reason we have run out of the vaccine is because the pharma companies reduced the amount they make in order to match demand. Capitalism at its finest.
The year we ran out was not because of the bird flu, but a particularly bad strain of the normal flu. That is why eBob started the thread that this thread was spun off from. Until the H5N1 strain made its way into migratory birds, I wasn't worried about it being in SE Asia. Hell, it has been there since 1998 and perhaps longer. The fact that it re-emerged and infected so easily the migratory birds is what set of bells in my head. I work in the field and that was not a good sign. There have been two other mutations since last July that are also troublesome. If this virus makes it to a human to human transmissable virus, it is estimated to take 6-8 weeks to spread throughout the world. We have to detect this mutation and isolate it in days notice and not weeks. That is our challenge and to fail is not an acceptable alternative. It is not that the sky is falling, it is that birds may be falling from the sky.

uh, yeah, and...? There's a slight difference in taking a kid for a normal flu vaccination and telling him/her that we're going to be decimated by bird flu and have about 6 months left to live, wouldn't you say?


the right thing being what...?

and I expected agreement from you brokenm...all I get is a smiley little face!

@BR: As I think from my posts, I don't disagree with you about the way in which the discussion on this thread has gone, that there is an element of the...doomsday... which I don't like.

I would much rather be informed on the specific steps the EU is taking in the event of an influenza outbreak, the capabilities to increase factory production of vaccines, mass influenza immunation programs, and state preparedness drills.

Have a joyfull healthy day...I'm gonna take a nap!!!

sweet dreams then gem (not involving coughing and wheezing birds)

No I think I have been agreeing. I don't think you need my help BR as you are making great points. I don't think anyone denies the problems with flu viruses, they kill many people every year. It is advisable for young children and elderly or immune compromised people as well as health care workers to take it every year. This is not to mean that a healthy middle aged person should. They are not in the risk group if they develop the flu. So, it is inadvisable to suggest the flu vaccine to people outside of the ones recommended.
That being said, the discussion is not about whether one day the world will die from a pandemice from a virus. It coudl happen. But to single out one virus and say that this is the one is wrong. It isn't and it won't be. Even now people are realising thatthis 50% death rate is grossly overstated as they are now finding more and more people who have tested positive to this virus that showed now symptoms. But I find it irresponsible to assert that this vaccine will cross-over given enough cases to a human tranferrable virus is just wrong. You are balancing too many probabilities and only mentioning the worst possible case. The chance that it will become human transmissable...negligible. the chance that it becomes human transmissable and retains the purported lethality..negligible on the negligible, the chance that it is this specific virus that will cross over and become human transmissable and maintain the purported lethality...(you guessed it) negligible on the negligible of the negligible. In fact the chance that the Y2K scare will actually effect us this year is millions of time higher.
But what about informing people who do not know the normal death toll of the common influenza outbreak? Or telling people to stock up on tamiflu? Or scaring children's parents? I think it is irresponsible. There is no reason to do this for the people who are not recommended for the normal flu vaccine. The benefits vs risks assesement is the reason that everybody does not receive the flu vaccine, not because of capitalism. However to warn people not to play with birds or for Marshbot to schedule her chicken farm tour next year is appropriate. To have worries and discuss them on a forum is appropriate, but to scare people into believeing your own fears is a bit OTT.

On a serious note, Here is an article on the mutation of the virus and it's possible implications.

Avian flu


take care,
space

Ummmmm, Hey it is a joke!

Below is a message from the U.S. Embassy in Berlin about avian flu.

Dear American Resident or traveling in Germany. The following updates the Avian Influenza situation in Germany.

Avian Flu in Germany

Tests have confirmed the presence of the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain in ten dead swans, one hawk, and one goose in northern Germany. The birds were found on the island of Ruegen, in the Baltic Sea. The German government has declared a three kilometer (two mile) security zone and a 10 km surveillance zone around the place where the birds were discovered. No poultry may be transported into or out of the zones. It has also ordered all domestic fowl within 10 kilometers to immediately shut their livestock indoors, this requirement also applies to the rest of Germany starting Friday, February 17. These measures are intended to prevent the spread of the virus from wild birds to domestic poultry and the German government has announced a zero tolerance policy towards violators. Meanwhile, neighboring Austria as well as Iran announced they had detected the H5N1 virus in dead birds, following recent confirmation in birds in Italy, Greece, and Slovenia.

The German Minister of Health, Ulla Schmidt announced that the incidence does not increase the threat level to humans. The following precautions are recommended:

. Avoid contact with chickens, ducks or other poultry
and their waste.
. Children are more prone to play with birds or to
"rescue" sick animals than adults ; teach them to avoid contact with birds.
. If you see dead or sick birds, report them to the
local authorities, but do not touch them.
. Do not keep birds as pets.
. Wash hands with soap and water after any contact.
. Cook all poultry and eggs thoroughly.

Check the WHO (http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/) or CDC (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/index.htm) website for more information and update. Also, there is a section on Avian Influenza on the following web page: http://www.usembassy.de/germany/services/avian_flu.html

Thank you.

As a follow up to the measures listed above, be advised you should boil all parrots and budgerigars, making sure they are completley immersed in the boiling water. Sex with chickens, or with persons who have or, have had contact with employees of Kentucky Fried Chicken should be avoided, if any sexual contact has taken place then the following should be carried out. 1. Douse with petroleum-spirits and burn. Please ensure you have no contact with the ashes afterwards. Do ensure that all chicken-products produced before 01.01.2006. are wrapped in lead-foil and taken to a collection-point,(the ashes also), ( to be announced) where they will be transported to French Guyanea and sent via Arianne V into the heart of the sun.

This post not to be taken seriously except by complete fuckwits.

Well, it has just struck the largest chicken coup in Sachsen. In German.

And now it has reached Scotland.

BBC - Bird flu confirmed in dead swan

If you are the worrying kind then here is some more news to add to your list of "reasons not to leave the house".
3 dead swans found in eastern France near the German border have tested positive for the H5N1 bird flu virus.

Story on BBC here.

Terrorists, Bird Flu, MacDonalds... Whatever shall we do?

Buy lots of wine and Gold.

About 2 weeks ago, I found a huge (bigger than my cat) raven dead in my back yard...right at the bottom of the tree. It is the same raven I had been hearing every day 'singing' because I have no heard it since that day.

Do big birds like that just die? Should I have contacted the authorities just in case it had something? I had my neighbor come over with a shovel to pick it up and he tossed it in the farmer's empty field...now I'm having second thoughts about it.

Relax, crows are not very susceptible to H5N1. There are thousands of other possibilities for its death. Concerns should kick in with a (or rather multiple) dead duck or swan. Even then I would hesitate to report it, if they find something the region faces some restrictions which do not only apply to poultry farms but also to pet owners.

Are a crow and a raven the same thing? This thing was much bigger than any crow that I had ever seen before.

It looked like it just dropped dead of a heart attack and fell out of the tree. It was literally laying at the bottom next to the trunk of the tree. Creepy thing he/she was.

Ravens are a member of the crow family.

OK, I feel better now. Thank you.

The raven (Corvus corax) is relatively rare in G., crows come in different sizes and are quite common. The whole family is hardly susceptible. Ducks and swans are highly susceptible.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L27334170.htm

A ban of poultry and poultry products is expected from a region in Southern Barvaria where H5N1 strain of bird flu was found over the weekend.

That would be Erlangen.
Kwenga, what do you do for a living? You sound like you got skilz.