German national election result

Up to now, all of the heads of parties I have heard on various German TV stations have claimed victory for their party. But none of them have enough seats to govern without help from another party (or two). They are patting their own backs and looking forward to contributing to a totally new Germany and disregarding the fact that even the parties with the most votes lost between 2.5 and 5 %.
The only saving grace is the chaos on CNN, where the correspondents hardly get a chance to give us their views without being interrupted by Atlanta, and then the translator has to sit and twiddle his thumbs waiting for a verb and gets turned off and on at random.

it's totally confusing at the moment, isn't it?
i'm supposed to be sms'ing monkstown with the result, i have no clue what to tell him...

who's won???

Say that Stoiber went straight from the carriage in the parade to Berlin and hasn't confirmed that he is coming back.

It's all rather amusing really. I'm listening to the end of Schroeder's speech now. I've heard Fischer's, Merkel's and the interview with Stoiber, all on Bayern 5. The thing that strikes me is the inability for any politician to say, "OK, we lost.".

And they all did loose - didn't they?

My analysis is this:

CDU/CSU - Stoiber played a stalking Brutus Moriatus to Merkel. He did massive damage to her credibility until they hauled him away from the hustings. In Merkel only securing (what is at the moment) 35.8% he not only damaged her, but has thrown his own reputation into troubled waters. I very much doubt that you will see Stoiber as a national contender again. Furthermore, the CSU vote in Bayern was 6% down. Does this indicate a population craving change? I think not.

SPD - Obviously badly torpedoed when the Harz4 heavyweights went off and joined the Links. And IHMO the very reason Schroeder was forced to decide upon an early election. However, having lost (at this point in the counting) 7.7% to the left, the SPD's share at 34.4% seems rather more healthy than I was expecting.

Grün - basically, about the same as last time. No real change, apart from Fischer no longer being Foreign Minister... which is a shame. Irrespective of his party politics, I thought he had been one of the best Foreign Ministers of any country in the past two or three decades.

FDP - If anybody can claim a hollow victory, then it is the FDP. But then, they only seem to have made up the ground that they lost in 2002.

Die Linke - 7.7% (again, at this point of the count) is probably the high point of their existence.

So where does it leave Germany? The SPD/Grün alliance don't have a majority, nor do the CDU/CSU/FDP. The SPD will not work with Die Linke. The FDP will not work with the SPD. Die Grün won't work with the CDU/CSU. Forget Die Linke with the CDU/CSU.

What's left? Yes you guessed it happy campers: A SPD/CDU(CSU) Grand Coalition...

...or another General Election.

Mindnumbing huh?

This was all typed in haste - sorry for any typos.

I thought the FDP was "Regierungsgeil" - wouldn't they go with Red/Green if asked?

Not by the interview I heard 30 mins ago. They said "No way! Jose!".

Yep. Looks like a grand coalition from my point of view too. Schroder is too smooth of a campaigner and public speaker. He prayed on Merkels weaknesses (i.e. taxes, Iraq/foreign policy, extreme economic reforms).

Are you sure? The german political analyst on CNN was talking about a possible traffic light coalition between SPD, Grune and FDP (red, green and yellow).

The FDP is willing to hang its flag into any political wind that will blow them into power. Such a sucker-fish party! (My ex is a member, and he really sucks)
We will get a Grand Coalition AND new general elections this time next year. Germany is heading back to the Weimar Republic with no party strong enough to govern, small parties without any political oomph taking up time and space without contributing to a functioning government and general elections at the drop of a hat. The result then was the NSDAP taking over.

You know I love this uncertain period... just by the news headlines. These aren't linked (coz it's a lot of work. But, if you want to see how a broad spectra views the election, go here.

So then:

GERMAN VOTE Germany's Schroder says he wants to remain chancellor (Hemscott)

GERMAN VOTE Germany's Schroder says he wants to remain (MoneyAM)

German chancellor, conservative foe stump for votes in national elections (Arizona Daily Sun)

GERMAN VOTE CDU's Merkel claims mandate to form German govt UPDATE (Hemscott)

German election delivers a hung parliament (CNBC)

Signs Point Toward New German Gov't. (WPVI, Pennsylvania)

Merkel claims mandate to form German government (TurkishPress)

German vote shows tough times ahead for EU: Socialists (TurkishPress)

GERMAN VOTE CDU's Merkel claims mandate to form German (MoneyAM)

Merkel leads in first German exit polls (CNBC)

GERMAN VOTE CDU's Merkel claims mandate to form German govt (Hemscott)

GERMAN VOTE CDU party beats Schroeder's SPD party in general elections UPDATE (Hemscott)

GERMAN VOTE CDU party beats Schroeder's SPD party (MoneyAM)

German Chancellor, Conservative Foe Stump For Last-minute Votes The Day (New London, Connecticut

Opposition wins German election, beating Schroeder: exit polls (TurkishPress)

German Elections: Big Parties Lose, No Clear Mandate (Nasdaq)

German opposition beats Schroeder, but no majority: early results (Khaleej Times)

Merkel ahead but lacks majority - German exit polls (ABS-CBNNEWS)

German SPD leader rules out coalition with far left (Reuters)

Merkel has edge in German exit poll (Ananova)

Exit polls: Merkel ahead in German election, but center-right coalition short of majority (Santa Fe New Mexican)

German opposition candidate claims mandate (CNN)

An exit poll shows no party wins majority in German election (Xinhua News Agency)

Merkel ahead but lacks majority: German exit polls (Reuters)

German Opposition Wins Narrowly Elections (Novinite)

The CDU/CSU hasn't learned. Last elections Stoiber claimed victory an hour after the polls closed and had to eat his words. Now Merkel is doing the same thing, and CDU and SPD are only 0.8% apart ...

Breaking news, Schröder just admitted in the panel discussion on ARD that the SPD has lost, but concerning from where they bounced back it was sensational.

How much of an impact can Dresden's results make on the final results from today, in a month's time?

Schröder just admitted SPD lost, but emphasized that regarding the position they add to fight for, they achieved a great "Ergebnis" and that he felt going for another "Mandat"...
The question is: CSU/CDU and SPD lost, each in the light of the prognosis they were favoured or their position "in Amt"... Who is now going to un germany... all a question of alliances...

UA, I am not quite sure. Seeing as how the Linke got 25% in former East Germany, chances are that neither of the large parties will win in Dresden. Also, the NPD (neo-nazis) landed a mud-slide victory in the local elections earlier this year and might collect a lot of votes. After all, it was their candidate who died.

Sin forgot:

"Angie reveals all on Page 3!" (The Sun)

Anybody have an extra copy of the Sun?? Merkel is a goddess.

*feels sick*

My call for the past three hours has been that it's going to be Red-Red-Green, with Schroeder remaining chancellor.

woof.

I've just seen the news headline that sums it all up the best:

"Germany in political limbo after knife-edge election"

@Topsy
Tell Monkstown that the left has won. Everyone is on strike and that flying pickets are back. We can riot without the fear of conviction and that communities can "sort out their own problems" regardless of law. Everything is being nationalised, including our houses and that only the council can tell you what colour they are going to paint it. Shares and private pensions are only for the rich and that the state will provided everying for everyone. Protecting yourself and your property is now illegal and prisons will all be closed as the prisoners will work for the elderly and all be very nice. He will love this news and see the funny side as it the systems he believes in and wants

Long live Stalin, Lenin, Mao and anyone else that kills their political adversaries...(Just joking) Long Live Thatcher (Not Joking)

Now I am going on strike as my neighbour has suggested that I might actually have to work for a living!!

*Shakes head at canaryman*

Mate, go out and get a fuckin' job. Stop living in cloud cuckoo land. You see things through half closed eyes sitting up on your priviledged perch. This is an employer telling you. Not an employee or a union member. Are you any less a sponger on society? I think not.

News just heard on Bayern 5 is awesome. The CSU has less than 50% of the vote in Bayern. Does anybody know of this occurring since 1949? Rock on Stoiber!

More news: 80% turnout. The second votes have been counted and it's CDU/CSU 222 seats, SDP 222 seats in the Bundesrat.

Edit: Misheard the numbers the first time.

I do not need to work. I take nothing from society and pay my way. I always have and hopefully always will. I worked from 17 to 38 years old whilst studying.

Stop pretending to be an intellectual force and admit that your way is patently out of touch, out dated and unsustainable.

Before you lecture me about wealth and well being, I have a bed-ridden mother, worked for a long time, during my youth for the Lions club with the handicapped and give to charities (as well as giving up my time).
Sorry to get on my soap box but the amount of self righteous do-gooders on this board that profess to superior morals whilst actually being all hot air, get under my skin a little...and yes, my extended family has a black guy from the Ivory Coast in it too!!!

Now, lets see your best patronising sarcasm pick that apart. (Laughs in a pitiful but heartfelt and sympathetic way)

OH, I forgot, as you keep mentioning the fact that you are an employer (not forgetting your fiveor whatever patents)...I do not have to work, have a house with a swimming pool, a new Mercedes CLK (bought and paid for) and I will say again, so what!!!

Oh! I do love a challenge

Worked from 17 to 38 "whilst studying". That says it all.

At what juncture did I mention being an 'intellectual force' - those are your words. Not mine.

'My way'. I didn't know I was so gifted as to have a 'way' all of my own. If I do have a 'way' it could not possibly be out-dated, because it has never been utilised. You see, you have me down as somebody who hangs to the left... which is not true. I merely seek consensus rather than adversarial politics in a logical middle way. I deplore corruption, be it from the left, middle or right.

My sympathies that you have a bed-ridden mother. I have a father on his last legs because of some fuckin' greedy pharmacutical corporation. Don't you think anybody else has done anything for charity?

Your soap box has got woodworm mate.

I'll tell you how much income tax I pay to society a year if you tell me how much you pay.

Too much geBräuroslt to coment. Apart from to say:

IT IS WHAT I PREDICTED !

(Apart from that poxy poof Schwesterwelle doing so well)

The SPD has said no coalition with the Left party or with the CDU. The CDU has said no coalition with the Left party. They haven't shut out a grand coalition with the SPD although most are convinced that a grand coalition wouldn't work in anycase. The problem with a "Jamaican" coalition i.e. CDU/FDP/Greens is that the FDP and Greens refuse to work with each other. The shuts out a "traffic light" coalition too. Basically, a lot of bullshitting is still going on, no-one has won anything, in fact, Germany is the big loser because no-one has a clear mandate and that's what Germany needs now. One other point, it seems like Merkel was the deciding factor, not Stoiber. People voted on the person and not the election program and most Germans abhor the possibility of Merkel as chancellor. Strange, that having a female chancellor seems to be a conservative idea...thinks back to a certain Tory...

what about dresden . they have not voted yet?

Finding it difficult to fit me into your idea of me being a right-wing, born into riches, dim ex-public schoolboy eh?? (I am non of those).

From which income do you want to know the amount of tax I pay and in which country? (There are 3)

Why dont you tell me how much of your time you have given up to help others that are less fortunate than yourself??

She didn't - I did. By SMS.
The Bräurosl went bananas.
And by the way canaryman, it's just common to pay income tax at all.
Several of us here do not pay any income tax at all in any country, so bigging yourself up that way is rather silly.

Dresden still needs to vote in 2 weeks but is unlikely to cause any huge changes.
My personal gut feeling is that the FDP will soon get drunk on the seductive heady scent of power and could well go for a Red-Yellow-Green (Ampel) coalition.
Hopefully quashing any thoughts of Westerwelle becoming Foreign Minister (Genscher you are not and never will be - that man had Niveau).
The thought of the "Jamaika-Koalition" should be looked at closely, yes you'd keep Joschka as Foreign Minister but who would be Innenminister?
Beckstein.
PS Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Arrghh, who needs a government? Somalia is doing well without one...A fine place for pirates...Arrgggghh...

It's a interesting question, how much will the Dresden vote on 2nd Oct change the final result ?

But either way, there has to be some kind of coalition, but as nobody wants to join the left party, and CDU/CSU and SPD would probably never join, it will have to be a minority goverment. That is not going to help Germany go forward. There has to be a majority goverment to get the reforms needed through.

I wholly agree with Pepper.

Also, I do find it strange that the SPD is more inclined on joining the FDP than the Left party in a coalition. Gives you an idea of Schröder's idea of social democracy.

His behaviour following the election result wrt his belittling of Merkel was also not very laudatory.

I personally think there will have to be another election...

Apparently Dresden will make no difference to the overall standings. I mean unless it's worth at least 6% of the seats how can it? As that's what the CDU/CSU or SPD would need along with a coalition with at least one other party to have the 50% majority.

So, 4 years of grand coalition, bitter in-fighting, back-stabbing and stagnation. Or another election. I know what I want but I think we may need several more elections to get a clear and worthwhile result.

I agree. From what I understand of German politics, If no government has been formed after 3 attempts, the president can call for new elections.

"Of course this is a disappoint...hahhahahahahhahahhaa"
I'm surprised he hasn't had a hernia keeping a straight face since the results were in.

what a bad result for Germany. Irrespective of if you prefer SPD or CDU, the instability really isn't good for Germany. I can't see how any of the potential coalitions can work really - what a mess? New election?

I think CDU messed up by being a bit too radical

Dresden can hypothetically swing 3 votes to SPD which would make them biggest but is pretty unlikely to happen (seems like CDU should win there)

Anyone care to explain what these 'overhang seats' are

Why does half the board inc. Sin and Topsy have pirate like handles at the moment?

I understood that CDU traditionally have done really bad in the "old" east Germany, so maybe the Dresden votes will swing it SPD's way. But regardless, there needs to be some kind of coalition, and 1 will not be enough, so maybe 2, then there is no real power, they each have their own mindset's ! so basically, nothing will change, Germany will be stuck on the road to ruin for another 4 years !

well the stock exchange is down over 2% this morning due to the uncertainty

The result seems indeed to be that every party has won and every party (except the Linke) has lost. It is not a "bad" result, it is a result that reflects the mood amongst Germans quite clearly: They are divided ideologically amd they are divided still between east and west.

There is NO mandate for the slash and burn neo-liberal frenzy that Merkel and the FDP wanted to unleash. I find the bitterness of those who thought they would sail to victory hilarious.

So begins the carousel of trying to build a government. It IS a lot more complicated this time becasue of all the possible combinations. But EVERY German election produces a coalition government and even if there had been a clear winner there would have been horse trading between the governing parties.

The system isn't designed to produce a "strong" one party government with a large parliamentary majority not reflecting how people actually voted or their opinions.

@ Boomtown Rat, Überhansmandate (hangover seats ) are the extra seats that are created when the party votes don't tally with the individual member votes so the parties get accurate representation based on their share of the vote.

@MonkTown

I agree with you with one exception; a lot more votes went to the left than to the right reflecting that Germans by and large favour a social democratic state. The fact is though, that a lot of them are disappointed with Schröder and feel he has sold them out. Much like the old Labourites who were sold out by Blair.

It confirms what happened in the Bundesrat elections before then. The CDU only won because SPD voters refused to go to the polls. They now have an alternative in the Linke Partei. The left is now split much as it is in France. If Schröder joined with the Left, then he would have his majority.

its true that all German governments are coalitions (basically a good thing) but this case seems different from normal I would say - mainly because the links party has taken 8%.

Is there a chance of R/G with some sort of implicit support from links (but not actually with them officially as a coalition party). Maybe it isn't bad because it reflects the national views, but a minority government (of whichever colour) is surely not very good for Germany - I mean black/yellow don't have a mandate for their reforms and R/G has even less of a vote of confidence than it had before the 'confidence vote'. Quite bad IMO for Germany in general

Ulysses, you are right. there is a clear majority in favour of the "left" than the "right".

Before the election the SPD said they would not work with the Linkspartei.

The Linkspartei said they wold neither go into any government or tolerate any SPD-Green coaltion unless Hartz4 was reversed.

What happens after the election remains to be seen.

On another level the FDP refuses to work with the Greens.
This is more than just their ideological differences.

The FDP represents a very specific set within German society: Lawyers, Estate agents, dentists etc and they truly beleive they have the RIGHT to be in the federal government AT ALL TIMES. In fact they always were. It was the FDP switching from a coalition with the SPD to CDU/CSU that ushered Kohl in.

During the 1980s the Greens evolved, got into parliament und with Schröder formed part of the federal government for the first time. This infuriates the FDP as they see their role as Kingmakers threatened.

The other point to make is that the FDP is the collecting point for people who would normally vote for one of the 2 major parties but want to "clip their wings" to stop them getting too powerful.

Hmmm... Please do me a favor and provide a credible five point program (keeping "a" and "b" below in mind) that will turn the German economy around that does not contain at least some "neo-liberal" reasoning...

a) This isn't the 20th century anymore so no Leninist inspired violent class struggles/revolutions.
b) Keep it simple, I'm not left-wing (as you would define it) so I'm not as smart as you are.

thanks for the explanation for the seats MT


Maybe, although it all depends on relative definitions of what constitutes left and right. I would say SDP have categorically ruled out working with the left party because (much as with new labour) they actually have more in common with 'classic' centre or right wing policies than they do with 'classic' left wing policies.

Just as, in fact, in relative 'global' terms, even CDU/CSU is somewhat central or left wing really. Germany is a social democratic land in general and so all the parties have strains or parts of socially democracy IMO

JW, The CDU/CSU and FDP were offering a move towards slash and burn neo-liberalism and the voters decided NOT to give them a manadate to do it. This is why people like the Federation of German Industry are throwing their toys out of the pram right now.

Your demand of me really is illogical, but anyway.

Some points that I would support without neo-liberalism:

*) Move from current Krankenkasse system to ONE social kasse into which EVERYONE pays. Would make fairer provision of health and welfare services, better targetting thereof and would reduce the marginal cost of labour.

*) Find some way to get the large ammounts of money saved in Germany into the economy. Lower interest rates. No increase in MwSt, Increase consumer confidence (Last government handled that area badly)

*) Lower taxation on lower pay scales, including larger tax free allowances and a flatter tax scale ladder.

*) Reversal of the large tax breaks given to the better off and industry over the last 20 years.

Edit, @ Boomtown Rat. Possibly true compared to say Britain or the USA but looking at it from a neutral point of view, the "Political Compass" puts both the SPD and CDU/CSU in the top right segment, though the CDU/CSU are of courser further to the right and up.

I think it was a bad idea that CDU/CSU were relatively radical in the run up. They should have just sat tight and lapped up the dicontented vote (as in e.g. NRW in ? May)

may i now suggest, MT, that whichever coalition gets formed, the policies agreed upon will NOT represent the wishes of the majority of the voters.

I think a second election is called for.

Quite possibly true there Boomtown Rat. We saw in the last couple of weeks, the SPD rowing very hard to play up their "social" side.

They knew that people were beginning to realise buffet of neo liberalism that the opposition was offering would have a bitter aftertaste.

The CDU/CSU could have won by default. Schröder was clever tactically to hold this election now rather than wait until the end.

Actually, if the opinion of the population counted instead of just those who are citizens, there would be a VERY clear centre-left majority opinion. Which is why the CDU/CSU blocks any attempt to make citizenship / voting more widely available.

The idea of voting and re-voting till we get a "right" answer is a red herring.
The Germans have spoken. The politicians now have to form a government of some kind.

Edit, Cap'n Morgan. But ALL German governments are a coalition of some kind so there are ALWAYS coompromises. Each party sets out their programm and the more votes they get the more they can push it through if they join a colaition.

Eg For the greens, the ending of nuclear energy was important and they pushed it through but weren't for example able to stop further autobahn construction.

Swings and roundabouts innit. We have to see there is the colour grey sometimes!

@MonksTown

Sorry mate, I normally agree with you, but this time I think you're talking a little out of your arse. I'll tell you why:

1) How does any German government both lower tax rates and VAT. In case you've wilfully read over it, the German government has not been meeting the Maastricht criteria as far as keeping its debts within 3% of GDP for sometime now. The CDU suggestion was to simplify the tax system so that companies like Deutsche Bank and Vodafone would not get away with the murder they have been i.e. claiming tax benefits whilst making a profit.

2) Lowering the interest rates is not within their authority. And this arguably is the mistake everyone has been making. The economy hasn't bottomed out yet because people are still buying on credit because the interest rates are so low. Basically, the ECB does not have it easy choosing the interest rate since they have to find a compromise between a high interest rate to keep a good economy like Ireland's happy and a low one to keep Germany happy.

3) I support the CDU's financial plans especially with respect to the tax plan. I think this is the key. However, I do not support their foreign policy.

Perhaps I shouldn't have tried to get into it with a bit of a sore head after a long session of decks and drums and rock n roll yesterday!

Yes there is the issue of the ECB setting the interest rates.

I think there needs to be a discussion on the 3% rule. I believe in keeping a balanced book but this rule comes from a different age, does it need to be set in stone?

Incidently the innefficient multiple kasse system makes this figure worse becasue that counts as "state" debt under the rules.

The heaviest burden of taxation needs to be moved away from the poorest (Schröder already made a good start) and onto the wealthier. The Kirchoff models sounds simple. I'd "put my hand in the fire" though that it would have resulted in massive tax cuts for the rich, maybe moderte tax cuts for some of the middle classes but a savaging of public services.

But I really need to get some sleep before I go to the Wiesn later!