Is this the end of the current global order?

Have read in the media and the interweb, several people opioning that this global meltdown will lead to the end of the USA as a superpower and the shrinking of all the other old world powers (including most of Europe). So, assuming that's true, what happens next?

What are the implications for global security?

and the economy?

Who will be the new world powers?

and what will that mean for us expats living here in Germany?

Another interminate discussion with the usual suspects contributing the usual arguments.
China is the next super-power, like it or not.

We're in a period of complete chaos so predicting anything is pretty well futile. That said...

What's different now to that last meltdown is the total interdependencies of the world markets. It's easy to say Russia and China could become dominant but look at China. They sell goods to the west. Their manufacturing sector is just about to have the mother of all colds. I've said it many times I think the next great instability in the world and the one we should worry most about is the fall of communism in China. It's not impossible this could trigger that.

The US and West still have the technology base. That won't go away. So they will remain at the forefront for some time to come. A lot may depend on the next US administration. It's going to take some strong leadership.

We could be just about to laugh about how silly the markets are as they stabilise and life goes on. We could be about to enter a period of war and suffering like never seen before. My guess is somewhere inbetween;-)

It is TEOTWAWKI

I was told in one of my first physics lessons that a massive percentage of the fuel used to launch a space rocket was only there because the fuel itself was so heavy - lets say 80% of the fuel was needed just to lift the fuel.
On the same note, 80% of chinese people are needed to make rice so that the country can function.

China is already dominant: it forced the US to put the bailout plan in place.

Prediction: recession. Won't be too bad in Germany but the UK is fucked.

I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords.

Now you are all just being silly. Sure it's a bit cacky at the moment but it is totally gonna blow over. Things will stabilize in the next 4 weeks, pick up slowly from start of 2009 and Oktoberfest will be just as drunken and rammed as ever next year.

It's right now, when you are all finally thinking "hey this is getting ****ing serious" - that it is actually all pretty much finished.

I don't know whether you've noticed but there is no Communism in China. Totalitarianism, yes. Central planning of the economy, yes. Communism, no.

What I guarantee is at the end of it Dieter Bohlen will still be an annoying T**t.

From what I see there is a real mixed mode going on and that's were I see the problems.

Agreed , but then again I thought that last Tuesday ...

I tremble at the thought of the vacuum of power to be expected on Cuba when Castro dies. Raul will not have the strength and energy to halt the reflux of third generation exiled Cubans re-entering the country of their fathers' fathers. The combination of the weight of airplanes landing at La Habaña and the water displacement by all the boats crossing from Florida will lead to Cuba's slowly being flooded and sinking into the Carribean, an allegory for the futility of both the Communist and Capitalist systems. Not to mention providing the material for a great Hollywood epic starring Dustin Hofmann as Raul Castro, Antonio Banderas as the Governor of Florida and Kirstie Alley as an aircraft carrier.

personally I do think all the predictions of doom and gloom are a bit overblown. Nevertheless, just as the banking crash of the 1930s so a realignment and reordering of world powers I think there is a distinct prospect of that this time round. The USA, I believe, will be the main nation to realign but that does not mean that it will become a third world country. Rather the deglobalisation of the world economy may lead to its diminution as a global economic dominator. And with that it will be less preoccupied with foreign wars and its role as a global policeman. The result will be a more multivalent world which may or may not be a good thing.

I'd be interested to know what Pauly Shore thinks about this

Everything I predict always fail to happen, which is on one hand why I am not a millionaire today, but on the other hand also the reason I am not pursued by lynch mobs for a witch burnin'.

So I predict: America no longer has the industrial, or now, the financial basis, for power projection on a global scale. We find ourselves in a world dominated by three or so main power blocks (US, Russia, EU, China, India are candidates) jockeying on a fairly even basis for control of resources in the third world and under the ocean floor. Similar to the 19th century great powers. Lots of small scale proxy wars and brush fires. Desperate charge toward energy independence.

We all wake up from the dream that somehow we're all going to be millionaires and rock stars and realise the last twenty years we've been spending borrowed money. Everyone starts growing their own vegetables.

Dieter Bohlen makes another million by penning a somehow sweet but mushy song with lyrics made from words chosen at random from the Students English Dictionary.

believe me, there is nothing communist about the chinese economy. don't confuse central planning and totalitarianism with communism.

Doesn't it make you miss the good old days when all we had to worry about was Global Warming and Iraq and al-Qaeda and Iran nukes and North Korea and population aging and immigration and national obesity and Georgia and the rising sea levels?

I think the only thing this crisis has proved beyond all doubt is that the idea of a European super state is as far away as it ever was.

It's been very clearly an ' every man for himself ' episode with no united action from the EU.

I think it proves beyond all doubt that a European super state and Euro centric nationality is becoming an absolute neccessity - with smart ideas - like rent controls - and others designed to preserve competiveness adopted in all parts.

totaly agree with parnell, if anything a readjusting uncertain world makes it all the more imperative that the EU sorts out its decision making processes and unifies properly.

China is in for a rude awakening, just like Japan had in the early 1990's. They can buy all the US Treasuries they want, but the heart of the matter is if China out-innovate the rest of the world? This question becomes interesting when one considers the level of effort and commitment necessary to create a culture of innovation. (And, what exactly is a culture that is innovative - discuss...) One could argue that innovation, at its base definition, is about ideas - either entirely new ideas, or improvements made to existing beliefs. Taking this general definition, an arbitrary party would conclude China to be one of the least likely societies to succeed with building a culture that embraces innovation. China, at least from 1950 to today, has not encouraged free thinking from its people, nor does it embrace failure as a path to future results. Being innovative is a process of continuous improvement, taking failures and successes together equally. To be a true world power, China must address the need for openness and creativity.

Another interesting note is that the US does allow foreign investment in banking, but must approve any investment over 5%. Foreign banks control eight of the 25 largest US banks (as of two weeks ago), but none are held by Chinese firms. But if they hold a bulk of US Treasury notes, and the Treasury owns (backstops) the banks, are we moving closer to true foreign control? Some posters have suggested the Chinese made a quick call and 'suggested' the $700B bailout. I believe it's more subtle than that, though anything is possible when it comes to money and politics.

200 million red guards are coming and taking over Europe. Ya'all have to dance with Chinese revolutionary music in your old tutus! So brace yourself!

surely they are all massing at the Bering Strait just raring to invade Alaska?

He said Chinese, everyone knows the alaskan neighbors are the Afghanis!

no worries, Sarah will give them a hard stare from her bedroom window and save the free world.

My prediction is that New Zealand will emerge from this economic crisis as the world's next super power. Helen Clark will rule with an iron fist and destroy all who stand in her way to becoming World High Priestess.

As the new World High Priestess Helen will destroy Australia for inventing Vegemite and then wipe the UK off the planet for that shite that they call Marmite. There is only one True Marmite and it's NZ Marmite.

France will be subject to her "RAAAAA!!!" for the only terrorist act commited in NZ and more importantly for booting NZ out of the Rugby World Cup. They will suffer the same fate as our desert neighbours and the moaners off the coast of Europe.

Stay tuned to discover who the World's High Priestess lets live and who perishes.

Man I am so glad I watched all those kevin costner movies..except Water World and The Postman.

lol perdido!

...and I for one am actually EXCITED about living in a world in which Tina Turner owns a dome shaped metal stadium in the radiated desert where she pits hapless travellers against giant mutants in horned helmets. Anyone else?

the USA splits into lots of tiny nations ,Dem.Rep. of Texas becomes the richest country in the north Americas

You didn't make it to the Oktoberfest this year then?

Sarah Palin will simply open her vast, gaping mouth to an even more extravagant size and swallow them whole into the cavernous, echoing nothingness that lies inside.

As in Neal Stephenson's Snow Crash, The United States will relocate to a fenced-off industrial park near Long Beach.

hahahahahahaha

actually, would have thought that if the USA did break u the result would be more like this:

the Democratic Republic of New England would join the European Union and the Pacific confederation of Calif/Or/Wash would stay in NAFTA or join Canada while the rest of the nation would become a squabbling bunch of xenophobic third world non alligned states all going down the tubes.

I doubt very much that any part of the US would ever want to join the EU. Why the hell would they want to? Enough Europeans aren't particularly enamoured with it.

I can definitely see a future for the P.P.R.C (Plastic People's Republic of California). There might even be a take-over bid for Mexico in order to secure cheap labour.

Umm, if Texas were its own nation it would have the 15th largest GDP in the world, hardly a third world nation. In the incredibly improbably dissolution of the US, Texas would end up better than most other states as an independant area - and it wouldn't be beneficial to anyone.

for as long as the world relies on oil maybe. But how long will that last?

oh and at 15th in the GDP ranking that would put Texas behind Mexico . ...

but not per capita...

Texas' economy isnt just based on Oil (Which still has decades of cashflow it will be bringing in), its a central region for biotech, aerospace, IT and international shipping. With cheap and plentiful land, 1.09 trillion 2006 gdp and a per capita gdp of $42,975 (Mexicos per capita gdp was $12,800 in 2007, the UK was $31800 in 2006), it is ignorant to assume that this region is less self sufficient than anywhere else than the US based on arbitrary preconceptions that border on horseshoe7-esque stereotypes.

There is a lot more to the Texas economy than oil, of which it is now a net importer.


Given Mexico has a population of almost 110 million and Texas under 25 million, that is hardly something to weep about. The per capita GDP of Texas is over 3x that of Mexico.

GDP per head for Texas (2006 figures) puts them at $36,920, a little bit better than Italy or Singapore

Bit like Scotland.

Sounds low. Where did you get that from, and is it a PPP figure? According to the US Census Bureau, it was over 43K in 2006 (I think that is not a PPP-adjusted figure, though).

17% is a little bit better?

Below has tx ppp gdp at 45342, where did you get 36920?

http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/...-smackdown.html

those figures show that Texas has a 40% higher GDP per capita than Germany. I'd be happy with that.

Would you still be happy when they vote to change into a sovereign state and crown Bush?

The 'Texas has the right to secede from the union via vote' is an urban legend. It stems from the treaty when they joined the union which is still technically valid and theoretically they could split into as many as 5 separate states.

If I were a Texan I probably would be. I'm not and have no desire to live there so it is a moot point really.

I thought every state had the right to secession.